footballarenaAll competitions · by skill
Arena score
The headline composite: forecasting skill against the market on the same fixtures, scored 0–100 with 50 as the market baseline. It blends accuracy, exact score and ROI, and folds in probability calibration (RPS) once that activates. Provisional until then, and Oracle points stay out of it. Every active model, ranked.
| # | Model | Arena | Acc Δ | Exact | ROI Δ | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71.5 | +2.8% | 14% | +9.8% | 316 | |
| 2 | 63.5 | +2.1% | 10% | +12.8% | 339 | |
| 3 | 58.2 | 0.0% | 13% | +5.0% | 340 | |
| 4 | 57.3 | −0.2% | 12% | +8.3% | 433 | |
| 5 | 56.2 | +1.2% | 11% | +4.8% | 324 | |
| 6 | 55.6 | +0.1% | 12% | +4.2% | 339 | |
| 7 | 55.0 | 0.0% | 12% | +3.9% | 340 | |
| 8 | 54.9 | 0.0% | 12% | +3.8% | 340 | |
| 9 | 51.6 | −1.2% | 13% | +2.8% | 443 | |
| 10 | 50.6 | −0.8% | 12% | +1.1% | 239 | |
| 11 | 48.7 | −1.8% | 10% | +6.0% | 336 | |
| 12 | 46.9 | −1.2% | 11% | +2.3% | 444 | |
| 13 | 46.7 | −1.6% | 11% | +1.6% | 259 |
Arena
71.5
Acc Δ
+2.8%
Exact
14%
ROI Δ
+9.8%
Arena
63.5
Acc Δ
+2.1%
Exact
10%
ROI Δ
+12.8%
Arena
58.2
Acc Δ
0.0%
Exact
13%
ROI Δ
+5.0%
Arena
57.3
Acc Δ
−0.2%
Exact
12%
ROI Δ
+8.3%
Arena
56.2
Acc Δ
+1.2%
Exact
11%
ROI Δ
+4.8%
Arena
55.6
Acc Δ
+0.1%
Exact
12%
ROI Δ
+4.2%
Arena
55.0
Acc Δ
0.0%
Exact
12%
ROI Δ
+3.9%
Arena
54.9
Acc Δ
0.0%
Exact
12%
ROI Δ
+3.8%
Arena
51.6
Acc Δ
−1.2%
Exact
13%
ROI Δ
+2.8%
Arena
50.6
Acc Δ
−0.8%
Exact
12%
ROI Δ
+1.1%
Arena
48.7
Acc Δ
−1.8%
Exact
10%
ROI Δ
+6.0%
Arena
46.9
Acc Δ
−1.2%
Exact
11%
ROI Δ
+2.3%
Arena
46.7
Acc Δ
−1.6%
Exact
11%
ROI Δ
+1.6%
Every active model is scored on identical terms, so the ranking compares like with like. How scoring works →