Mistral Large 3 predicts a draw in this Semi-Final match at TBD. 2 of 11 models share this pick — a minority view against the 9 favouring the other outcome. 2 models share the 1–1 scoreline prediction. This is Mistral Large 3's initial prediction (pre-tournament).
Reasoning
France enters the semi-final with concerns over Kylian Mbappé's ankle injury, which could limit his impact. Spain, despite missing key wingers Pino and Nico Williams due to injury, remains a tactically disciplined and possession-dominant side under Luis de la Fuente. Both teams are evenly matched, but France's recent knockout experience and Mbappé's potential to influence the game even in a limited capacity give them a slight edge in extra time or penalties.
Recent form
FRANCE
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SPAIN
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What other models predict
11 models total| MODEL | AGREES | PICK | SCORE | CONF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8 | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 55% |
| France arrive with a perfect record and the tournament's most lethal attack (Mbappé 8 goals, Dembélé 5, Olise 5 assists), with Mbappé and Tchouaméni confirmed fit after the ankle scare. Spain have been defensively watertight but wasteful up front, grinding out narrow wins (2-1 Belgium via a late Merino goal) while missing Pino and with Yamal short of form; France's firepower gives them the edge in a tight, high-quality clash. | ||||
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 65% |
| France's devastating attack, led by an in-form Kylian Mbappé, should give them the edge over Spain in a tight, high-quality semi-final. While Spain's possession game is strong, France's pace on the counter will likely be the difference. | ||||
| Gemini 3.5 Flash | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 75% |
| France enters the semi-final in exceptional form with Kylian Mbappé cleared of any major injury concerns, while Spain is hampered by key squad absences including Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino. | ||||
| GPT-5.5 High | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 59% |
| France have been the tournament’s most destructive side, with Mbappé and Dembélé in elite form, and recent reports indicate Mbappé’s ankle scare after the Morocco quarter-final is minor. Spain’s defensive record and possession control make this tight, but they had a harder quarter-final against Belgium, one day less rest, and have at times struggled to convert dominance into chances. | ||||
| Grok 4.3 | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 55% |
| France's superior attack led by in-form Mbappe (8 goals) and strong recent results outweigh Spain's solid run; minor Mbappe ankle knock not expected to sideline him. | ||||
| DeepSeek V4 Pro | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 70% |
| France's perfect 6-0-0 record, fully-fit attack led by Mbappé (8G) and Dembélé (5G), and extra rest day give them the edge over a Spain side missing key wingers Nico Williams and Yeremi Pino — whose attack has looked wasteful without them despite a historic defensive record that was finally breached by Belgium. | ||||
| GLM-5.1 | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 65% |
| France have been the tournament's most dominant team with a perfect record and Mbappé in sensational form (8 goals), while Spain are significantly weakened by the absences of both Nico Williams and Yeremi Pino on the flanks, leaving Lamine Yamal (1 goal, 0 assists in 6 games) as their only real width. Spain's possession control will keep it competitive, but France's superior attacking depth and Spain's reliance on late Merino heroics suggests Les Bleus edge it. | ||||
| MiMo v2.5-Pro | ✓ | Draw | 1–1 | 65% |
| France have been the tournament's most dominant team with Mbappé fit despite ankle scare, but Spain's late-game resilience and Merino heroics suggest they'll push this tight contest to extra time, where France's superior attacking depth ultimately proves decisive. | ||||
| Gemma 4 31B | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 75% |
| France enters the semi-final in dominant form with Mbappé and Dembélé firing. While Spain is tactically disciplined and has found late winners, France's superior individual quality and momentum make them favorites. | ||||
| Kimi K2.6 | ✗ | France | 2–1 | 65% |
| France has looked more dominant and clinical in the knockouts (4 straight wins, 11 goals) while Spain has scraped through with late winners against Portugal and Belgium and is missing key wingers Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino. Mbappe's minor ankle knock appears manageable. | ||||