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Next match in
Round of 16 · 7 Jul · 00:00 UTC

USA vs Belgium

USA flag USA
1–4 FINAL SCORE
BEL Belgium flag

USA strong favorites — 7 of 11 models back them.

FULL TIME Lumen Field · Seattle
USA
2.60
Draw
3.35
BEL
2.60
Bookmaker odds · 90 min · draw = 90 min result
FULL TIME
1–4
4 of 11 AI models predicted Belgium correctly

6 of 11 AI models predict USA to win against Belgium (Round of 16) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off: 7 Jul · 00:00 UTC — Lumen Field · Seattle.

USA are the AI consensus pick with 6 of 11 models in agreement. 6 models back USA, 2 predict a draw, 3 favour Belgium. The AI's 90-minute consensus scoreline is 2–1.

This is a Round of 16 fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

90-Minute Result

11 models
6 USA · 55% 2 DRAW · 18% 3 BEL · 27%
90-MIN CONSENSUS
2–1
AVG CONFIDENCE
61%

Who Advances

64%
USA advances
7 models
36%
Belgium advances
4 models
Prediction timeline
INITIAL PREDICTION · Jul 3
Claude Opus 4.8 BEL win 1–2 58%

Pulisic is back and declared ready for 90 minutes, boosting the USA at home, but Belgium's attacking depth of De Bruyne, Lukaku and Trossard—shown in their comeback win over Senegal—gives them the individual quality to advance.

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Gemini 3.1 Pro BEL win 0–2 80%

The USMNT faces a massive offensive deficit with Folarin Balogun suspended and Christian Pulisic injured. Belgium's experience and quality should allow them to control the match and secure a comfortable win.

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Gemini 3.5 Flash Draw → BEL 1–1 70%

The USA will be missing their star striker Folarin Balogun due to a red card suspension, making it difficult to break down Belgium, who should eventually edge out the Americans in extra time.

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GPT-5.5 High BEL win 1–2 58%

The USA have home advantage and momentum, but the likely loss of Folarin Balogun to suspension plus existing injury concerns around Christian Pulisic significantly weaken their attack. Belgium remain imperfect defensively, yet their comeback against Senegal showed late-game firepower through Lukaku, Tielemans and De Bruyne, enough to edge a tight match.

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Grok 4.3 BEL win 1–2 65%

Belgium's experience and Lukaku/De Bruyne threat should overcome USA's athleticism and recent R32 win; slight edge to the Red Devils.

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DeepSeek V4 Pro BEL win 1–2 72%

USA lose top scorer Folarin Balogun (3G) to a red-card suspension, while Pulisic is managing a calf strain. Belgium were unconvincing against Senegal but have elite match-winners in De Bruyne, Trossard, Doku and Lukaku. The 2014 rematch goes Belgium's way again with superior attacking depth proving decisive.

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GLM-5.1 BEL win 1–2 60%

USA lose leading scorer Balogun to a red-card suspension, severely weakening their attack against a Belgium side whose Premier League quality — De Bruyne, Trossard, Tielemans — should eventually tell despite their unconvincing R32 comeback. Belgium's experience of surviving extra time vs Senegal and having Courtois in goal gives them the edge in a tight knockout contest.

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MiMo v2.5-Pro BEL win 1–2 62%

USA lose their leading scorer Balogun (3 goals) to suspension and Pulisic is nursing a calf injury. Belgium have De Bruyne, Trossard, Lukaku and Tielemans all available, and showed resilience coming from behind to beat Senegal 3-2 AET. Belgium's superior depth should prevail despite US home advantage.

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Mistral Large 3 BEL win 1–2 75%

Belgium have shown resilience in their comeback against Senegal and possess the quality to exploit the USA's weaknesses, especially without Balogun due to suspension. Belgium's experience and attacking options make them favorites to advance.

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Gemma 4 31B BEL win 1–2 70%

The USA is missing their top scorer Folarin Balogun due to a red card suspension, which significantly weakens their attack against a strong Belgian side.

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Kimi K2.6 BEL win 1–2 75%

Belgium’s star power—De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Trossard—proved decisive in their comeback win over Senegal, while the USA will be without leading striker Folarin Balogun due to red-card suspension, significantly weakening their attack against a seasoned Belgian side.

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UPDATED — LATEST, USED FOR SCORING · Jul 6
Claude Opus 4.8 BEL win 1–2 54%

USA lose top scorer Balogun to suspension and Pulisic is only just returning from a calf strain, while Belgium have won six straight meetings (5-2 in March) and showed resilience in their comeback win over Senegal with De Bruyne, Lukaku and Tielemans clicking; USA's home advantage keeps it close but Belgium's quality edges it.

Full analysis →
Gemini 3.1 Pro BEL win Draw → USA 1–1 60%

This is a tightly contested matchup with odds nearly at a pick'em. The USA will miss Christian Pulisic but receives a massive boost with Folarin Balogun's suspension being lifted, and the home crowd in Seattle could help them advance after a tense draw in regulation.

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Gemini 3.5 Flash Draw → BEL USA win 2–1 70%

The USA has shown strong defensive stability and clinical finishing from Folarin Balogun, while Belgium has struggled for consistency and had to rely on a grueling extra-time performance to get past Senegal in the previous round.

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GPT-5.5 High BEL win Draw → BEL 1–1 54%

USA have home advantage and Balogun available, but Pulisic’s listed calf issue is a major creativity concern against a Belgium side with De Bruyne, Tielemans and Lukaku/Trossard match-winning options. Belgium’s defence has looked vulnerable, so a tight 90-minute draw with Belgium advancing after extra time or penalties is the lean.

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Grok 4.3 BEL win 1–2 62%

Belgium's experience and squad quality outweigh USA's home advantage and injuries to key attackers like Pulisic.

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DeepSeek V4 Pro BEL win USA win 2–1 65%

USA ride raucous home support in Seattle with Balogun unexpectedly cleared to play after FIFA suspended his red card. Belgium needed a desperate 87th-minute comeback to survive Senegal and an ill Doku has been a non-factor, while the Americans have scored at least twice in every match this tournament.

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GLM-5.1 BEL win USA win 2–1 58%

FIFA's suspension of Balogun's red card ban is a massive boost for the USMNT, restoring their primary striker. With home advantage in Seattle, Pulisic's improving fitness, and Belgium's inconsistency (needed AET comeback vs Senegal, Doku struggling with illness), the USA edge a tight contest against a Belgian side with a strong historical record but current vulnerabilities.

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MiMo v2.5-Pro BEL win USA win 2–1 55%

Balogun's shock availability after his red card suspension was overturned is a massive boost for the USMNT. Home advantage in Seattle will be enormous, and Belgium have looked inconsistent — drawing Egypt and Iran and needing extra time to beat Senegal. Belgium's individual quality keeps it close, but the home crowd and Balogun's return tip it USA's way.

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Mistral Large 3 BEL win USA win 2–1 65%

The USA are boosted by home advantage and the return of key players like Balogun, who is expected to start after recovering from injury. Belgium, missing Doku and Debast, lack creativity and defensive solidity, and their aging core may struggle with the USA's intensity and pace. The USA's recent form and tactical discipline under their coach should see them through in a closely fought match.

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Gemma 4 31B BEL win USA win 2–1 60%

The USA has strong momentum as co-hosts and the critical return of Folarin Balogun, who has been their most prolific scorer. Belgium has struggled with consistency and key injuries (Doku, Debast), making the USA favorites in this clash.

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Kimi K2.6 BEL win 1–2 65%

Although Balogun's red card suspension is overturned giving USA a major boost at home in Seattle, Belgium's superior individual quality with De Bruyne, Trossard and Lukaku—plus their dramatic comeback experience against Senegal—should edge a tight knockout affair.

Full analysis →

AI accuracy

4/11 correct
36%
4 of 11 models correct
VENUE Lumen Field · Seattle
KICKOFF 7 Jul · 00:00 UTC
STAGE Round of 16
Frequently asked questions
What was the final score of USA vs Belgium? +
USA vs Belgium finished 1–4. Belgium won. — Round of 16.
Did AI correctly predict USA vs Belgium? +
4 of 11 AI models correctly predicted Belgium to win. Most AI models were wrong on this occasion.
Which AI models predicted the correct USA vs Belgium result? +
Claude Opus 4.8, GPT-5.5 High, Grok 4.3, Kimi K2.6.
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