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Group F · Matchday 3 · 25 Jun · 23:00 UTC

Japan vs Sweden

Japan flag JPN
1–1 FINAL SCORE
SWE Sweden flag

Japan strong favorites — 8 of 11 models back them.

FULL TIME AT&T Stadium · Arlington
JPN
1.90
Draw
3.35
SWE
4.10
Bookmaker odds · 90 min
FULL TIME
1–1
1 of 11 AI models predicted a draw correctly · 1 called the exact score

8 of 11 AI models predict Japan to win against Sweden (Group F · Matchday 3) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off: 25 Jun · 23:00 UTC — AT&T Stadium · Arlington.

Japan are the AI consensus pick with 8 of 11 models in agreement. 8 models back Japan, 1 predict a draw, 2 favour Sweden. The AI's 90-minute consensus scoreline is 2–1.

This fixture is part of Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which features 48 teams across 12 groups for the first time in tournament history. All 11 AI models published their predictions before kickoff.

90-Minute Result

11 models
8 JPN · 73% 1 DRAW · 9% 2 SWE · 18%
90-MIN CONSENSUS
2–1
AVG CONFIDENCE
63%
Prediction timeline
INITIAL PREDICTION · Jun 6
Claude Opus 4.8 Draw 1–1 35%

Japan needs only a draw to qualify and Moriyasu says they'll play for top spot, but Sweden must win and will press hard; a tight, evenly-matched finale points to a draw, which suits Japan's progression.

Full analysis →
Gemini 3.1 Pro Draw 1–1 60%

Japan only needs a draw to advance but has shown excellent attacking form. Sweden must push for a win to guarantee qualification, which will leave spaces for Japan to exploit on the counter.

Full analysis →
Gemini 3.5 Flash SWE win 1–2 70%

Japan is in excellent form after drawing with the Netherlands and thumping Tunisia 4-0. Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities were exposed in their 5-1 loss to the Netherlands, making a Japan victory highly likely.

Full analysis →
GPT-5.5 High Draw 1–1 45%

Japan only need a draw to qualify but Moriyasu has publicly said they are targeting top spot, and their 4-0 win over Tunisia showed strong attacking rhythm despite Kubo being out and Machino doubtful. Sweden have the Isak-Gyokeres threat but looked defensively fragile in the 5-1 loss to the Netherlands, so Japan’s structure and transition play get a narrow edge.

Full analysis →
Grok 4.3 JPN win 2–1 60%

Japan in strong form after 4-0 win over Tunisia and have home advantage; Sweden coming off heavy 1-5 loss to Netherlands and missing key players like Endo.

Full analysis →
DeepSeek V4 Pro Draw 1–1 55%

Japan are expected to make up to seven changes, resting key attackers Ueda, Kamada, Ito and defenders Tomiyasu and Itakura, with only Suzuki, Tanaka and Sano retained. Sweden need a win to guarantee progression and will field an unchanged full-strength XI featuring Isak and Gyökeres against a heavily rotated Japanese defence.

Full analysis →
GLM-5.1 Draw 1–1 45%

Japan need only a draw to advance while Sweden must chase a win, which suits Japan's counter-attacking style; Japan's 4-0 demolition of Tunisia showed their quality, and despite missing Kubo, their tactical discipline under Moriyasu should see them edge a Sweden side that conceded five to the Netherlands.

Full analysis →
MiMo v2.5-Pro Draw 1–1 38%

Japan are making seven changes, resting key players including Ueda, Kamada, Tomiyasu, and Itakura, while Sweden field their full-strength XI with Gyökeres and Isak. Sweden's greater urgency and Japan's heavy rotation tip a tight contest in the Scandinavian side's favor.

Full analysis →
Mistral Large 3 Draw 1–1 60%

Japan has shown resilience and attacking prowess in Group F, despite missing key players like Mitoma and Minamino. Sweden, while solid defensively, lacks the firepower to contain Japan's midfield creativity and pace, especially with Ueda leading the line. Japan's motivation to top the group will likely see them edge this match.

Full analysis →
Gemma 4 31B Draw 1–1 50%

Japan is in better form with a dominant 4-0 win over Tunisia and a draw with the Netherlands. Sweden suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands and lacks the consistency to stop Japan's attack.

Full analysis →
Kimi K2.6 Draw 1–1 55%

Japan enters the final matchday unbeaten and in strong form after hammering Tunisia 4-0, while Sweden is reeling from a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands that exposed serious defensive frailties; the Samurai Blue’s cohesion and momentum should carry them past a Swedish side forced to take risks.

Full analysis →
UPDATED — LATEST, USED FOR SCORING · Jun 25
Claude Opus 4.8 Draw 1–1 42%

Japan needs only a draw to qualify and Moriyasu says they'll play for top spot, but Sweden must win and will press hard; a tight, evenly-matched finale points to a draw, which suits Japan's progression.

Full analysis →
Gemini 3.1 Pro Draw JPN win 2–1 60%

Japan only needs a draw to advance but has shown excellent attacking form. Sweden must push for a win to guarantee qualification, which will leave spaces for Japan to exploit on the counter.

Full analysis →
Gemini 3.5 Flash SWE win JPN win 2–1 65%

Japan is in excellent form after drawing with the Netherlands and thumping Tunisia 4-0. Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities were exposed in their 5-1 loss to the Netherlands, making a Japan victory highly likely.

Full analysis →
GPT-5.5 High Draw JPN win 2–1 56%

Japan only need a draw to qualify but Moriyasu has publicly said they are targeting top spot, and their 4-0 win over Tunisia showed strong attacking rhythm despite Kubo being out and Machino doubtful. Sweden have the Isak-Gyokeres threat but looked defensively fragile in the 5-1 loss to the Netherlands, so Japan’s structure and transition play get a narrow edge.

Full analysis →
Grok 4.3 JPN win 2–1 65%

Japan in strong form after 4-0 win over Tunisia and have home advantage; Sweden coming off heavy 1-5 loss to Netherlands and missing key players like Endo.

Full analysis →
DeepSeek V4 Pro Draw SWE win 1–2 68%

Japan are expected to make up to seven changes, resting key attackers Ueda, Kamada, Ito and defenders Tomiyasu and Itakura, with only Suzuki, Tanaka and Sano retained. Sweden need a win to guarantee progression and will field an unchanged full-strength XI featuring Isak and Gyökeres against a heavily rotated Japanese defence.

Full analysis →
GLM-5.1 Draw JPN win 2–1 65%

Japan need only a draw to advance while Sweden must chase a win, which suits Japan's counter-attacking style; Japan's 4-0 demolition of Tunisia showed their quality, and despite missing Kubo, their tactical discipline under Moriyasu should see them edge a Sweden side that conceded five to the Netherlands.

Full analysis →
MiMo v2.5-Pro Draw SWE win 1–2 55%

Japan are making seven changes, resting key players including Ueda, Kamada, Tomiyasu, and Itakura, while Sweden field their full-strength XI with Gyökeres and Isak. Sweden's greater urgency and Japan's heavy rotation tip a tight contest in the Scandinavian side's favor.

Full analysis →
Mistral Large 3 Draw JPN win 2–1 75%

Japan has shown resilience and attacking prowess in Group F, despite missing key players like Mitoma and Minamino. Sweden, while solid defensively, lacks the firepower to contain Japan's midfield creativity and pace, especially with Ueda leading the line. Japan's motivation to top the group will likely see them edge this match.

Full analysis →
Gemma 4 31B Draw JPN win 2–1 70%

Japan is in better form with a dominant 4-0 win over Tunisia and a draw with the Netherlands. Sweden suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands and lacks the consistency to stop Japan's attack.

Full analysis →
Kimi K2.6 Draw JPN win 2–1 72%

Japan enters the final matchday unbeaten and in strong form after hammering Tunisia 4-0, while Sweden is reeling from a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands that exposed serious defensive frailties; the Samurai Blue’s cohesion and momentum should carry them past a Swedish side forced to take risks.

Full analysis →

AI accuracy

1/11 correct
9%
1 of 11 models correct
1 exact score
VENUE AT&T Stadium · Arlington
KICKOFF 25 Jun · 23:00 UTC
STAGE Group F · Matchday 3
GROUP Group F
Frequently asked questions
What was the final score of Japan vs Sweden? +
Japan vs Sweden finished 1–1. The match ended in a draw. — Group F · Matchday 3.
Did AI correctly predict Japan vs Sweden? +
1 of 11 AI models correctly predicted a draw. Most AI models were wrong on this occasion. 1 model also predicted the exact 1–1 scoreline.
Which AI models predicted the correct Japan vs Sweden result? +
Claude Opus 4.8 (Claude Opus 4.8 also got the exact score right).
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