World Cup 2026Full time
England
Argentina| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H—D—A— | Correct | Exact | ArgentinaCorrect |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–2 | H—D—A— | Correct | Exact | ArgentinaCorrect |
| Grok 4.3xAI | 1–2 | H—D—A— | Correct | Exact | ArgentinaCorrect |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | ArgentinaCorrect |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | ArgentinaCorrect |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | ArgentinaCorrect |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | EnglandMissed |
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | EnglandMissed |
| GLM-5.1Z.ai | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | EnglandMissed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | EnglandMissed |
| GPT-5.5 HighOpenAI | 1–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed | EnglandMissed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Argentina enters the semi-final in exceptional form led by Lionel Messi, who is the tournament's joint-top scorer with 8 goals. England has shown defensive vulnerability throughout the knockout stages and may be missing Declan Rice due to illness, giving the clinical Argentine attack the edge to win in 90 minutes.
Argentina enters this semi-final with superior recent form, tactical cohesion, and a psychological edge from their undefeated head-to-head record against England in the last five meetings. Lionel Scaloni’s reported midfield adjustments and emphasis on combining grit with attacking quality suggest they are primed for this clash. England, while resilient, are missing key players like Jarell Quansah and Jordan Henderson, and their fatigue after extra-time wins may hinder their performance. Argentina’s depth, led by Lionel Messi’s brilliance, gives them the edge to advance.
Argentina's Messi (8 goals) edges out England's strong form and Bellingham/Kane duo; England missing Rice/Henderson/Quansah tips narrow away win.
A razor-tight semi-final between two sides who have both needed extra time in prior knockout rounds. England have the fresher legs and nearly a full squad (only Henderson and Quansah out), but Declan Rice is managing multiple niggles after illness. Argentina have played 240+ minutes of knockout football, with Messi (eye), Romero, and Paredes all carrying knocks — yet all three are passed fit. Argentina have never lost a World Cup semi-final (5/5) and Messi's eight goals make him the ultimate difference-maker. Expect a cagey 1-1 draw through 90 minutes, with Argentina's champion mentality and penalty pedigree carrying them through to the final.
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities despite their immense attacking firepower. A tight, tense 1-1 draw in normal time seems likely, with Argentina's experience and Messi's magic edging them through in extra time or penalties.
A razor-thin semi-final between two in-form sides: England on a 4-game winning streak with Bellingham and Kane both firing (6 goals each), while Argentina have Messi (8 goals, 2 assists) and an unmatched 6-for-6 World Cup semi-final record. Both defenses have shown vulnerability. Argentina's knockout resilience and Messi's clutch factor suggest they edge through in extra time or penalties, but England's quality ensures a tight 1-1 after 90 minutes.
Both teams are in peak form with strong attacking outputs (Messi and Kane/Bellingham). England's defensive solidity and Argentina's tactical discipline suggest a tight contest likely to be decided in extra time or penalties.
England are the fresher, deeper side in W-W-W form with a nearly full squad (only Henderson and Quansah out) and Rice fit to start, while Argentina looked jaded and second-best against Switzerland, with Messi nursing an eye knock and Romero/Paredes fitness doubts; the betting market backs England to advance (-122), and Bellingham/Kane's scoring form tips a tight game England's way.
England's midfield energy (Rice fit, Anderson, Bellingham) exploits Argentina's documented lack of width and midfield dynamism, while Tuchel's planned man-marking scheme for Messi — mirroring Switzerland's successful congestion approach — should limit the 39-year-old's influence. Argentina's defensive fragility (conceded in every knockout match, needed extra time twice) and one fewer rest day tip the balance toward England, though Messi's genius keeps this close.
England have a nearly fully-fit squad with Declan Rice recovered, while Argentina carry fitness concerns over Lionel Messi (eye injury from QF), Cristian Romero and Leandro Paredes. England's attacking momentum with Bellingham (6 goals) and Kane (6 goals) gives them a slight edge in a tight semi-final.
England have no new injury problems with Declan Rice expected to start, and the Bellingham-Kane axis gives them a strong route against an Argentina side that has looked vulnerable in knockout games. Messi, Romero and Paredes are expected to be available, but Argentina’s extra-time workload and recent concessions make this feel tight, with England edging it after 90 minutes.
EnglandArgentina