Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Model notes
Mistral Large 3
This semi-final is a clash of styles, with France's relentless attacking prowess (led by a fit Kylian Mbappé) facing Spain's possession-based, patient approach. Both teams are in excellent form, with Spain's squad depth and France's defensive solidity in the knockouts making this a tightly contested match. Spain's intent to dominate possession and France's counter-attacking threat could lead to a stalemate after 90 minutes, but Spain's tactical flexibility and recent momentum suggest they may edge through in extra time or penalties.
Gemini 3.1 Pro
France's attack, led by an in-form Kylian Mbappe, has been devastating, and they haven't conceded a single goal in the knockout stages. Spain has relied on late goals to advance, and France's overall quality and defensive solidity should see them through to the final.
Gemini 3.5 Flash
France enters the semi-final in exceptional form, having progressed through the knockout rounds without conceding a single goal while boasting a devastating attack led by Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé. Spain has relied on late-game heroics to scrape past Portugal and Belgium, and France's superior defensive solidity and clinical frontline should see them edge out a narrow victory in normal time.
Gemma 4 31B
France enters the semi-final in clinical form, having kept clean sheets in every knockout match so far. With Mbappé and Dembélé in peak scoring form and a disciplined defense, they have a slight edge over a Spain side that, while technically proficient, has been more vulnerable in high-stakes transitions.
Kimi K2.6
France have reached the semi-final without conceding a goal in the knockouts, with Mbappé, Olise and Dembélé in devastating form. Spain have relied on late goals to edge past Portugal and Belgium and look vulnerable against Les Bleus' pace and power.
GLM-5.1
France have been the tournament's standout team with 16 goals in 6 matches and no goals conceded in the knockouts. Mbappé (8 goals) is fit and their front three has been devastating (23 combined goal contributions). Spain have been scraping through with late Merino winners and Yamal has yet to hit top form, though their defensive record (1 goal conceded) suggests this won't be a rout.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
France's attack (Mbappe 8G, Dembele 5G, Olise 5A) has torn through every opponent and they haven't conceded in the knockout stages. Though Spain beat France in the last two major semi-finals and have conceded only once all tournament, La Roja needed late Merino winners against both Portugal and Belgium, suggesting vulnerability. Bastille Day and Deschamps' farewell tournament provide extra emotional fuel for Les Bleus to finally overcome their Spanish hurdle.
MiMo v2.5-Pro
France have been imperious in knockouts—three clean sheets vs Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco—with Mbappe, Dembélé, and Olise combining for 23 goals; Spain needed late Merino winners in both knockout rounds and Lamine Yamal has yet to hit top form. Mbappe is confirmed 100% fit by Deschamps, while France's defensive record and clinical front three give them a slight edge in what should be a tight, high-quality semi-final.
GPT-5.5 High
France enter with the stronger knockout profile, having eliminated Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco without conceding, and Mbappé is reported fit despite the ankle scare. Spain have a clean squad aside from minor doubts and the quality to score, but their recent reliance on late winners and France’s extra rest and superior attacking output tilt this narrowly toward Les Bleus.
Grok 4.3
France's Mbappe (8 goals) and strong knockout form edge out Spain despite both sides' excellent records; midfield concerns for Les Bleus are offset by attacking depth.
Claude Opus 4.8
A near coin-flip between two elite sides: France have been ruthless in the knockouts (three clean sheets vs Sweden, Paraguay, Morocco) with Mbappé confirmed fit and Dembélé/Olise flying, while European champions Spain have needed late Merino winners twice and Yamal is short of top form. Expect a tight game likely level after 90 minutes, with France's attacking cutting edge and defensive solidity edging them through in extra time or on penalties.
