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World Cup 2026Full time

Mexico vs Ecuador — predictions and result

Mexico
90-minute result2–0
Ecuador
Round of 32Estadio Banorte · Mexico City

Predictions

11 published
Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Model / versionScorelineHome / Draw / AwayOutcomeExactAdvance
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek2–0
H—D—A—
CorrectExactMexicoCorrect
GoogleGemini 3.5 FlashGoogle2–0
H—D—A—
CorrectExactMexicoCorrect
KimiKimi K2.6Moonshot2–0
H—D—A—
CorrectExactMexicoCorrect
OpenAIGPT-5.5 HighOpenAI2–0
H—D—A—
CorrectExactMexicoCorrect
GoogleGemma 4 31BGoogle2–0
H—D—A—
CorrectExactMexicoCorrect
XiaomiMiMoMiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi2–0
H—D—A—
CorrectExactMexicoCorrect
MistralMistral Large 3Mistral2–1
H—D—A—
CorrectMissedMexicoCorrect
GoogleGemini 3.1 ProGoogle2–1
H—D—A—
CorrectMissedMexicoCorrect
Z.aiGLM-5.1Z.ai2–1
H—D—A—
CorrectMissedMexicoCorrect
AnthropicClaude Opus 4.8Anthropic2–1
H—D—A—
CorrectMissedMexicoCorrect
GrokGrok 4.3xAI2–1
H—D—A—
CorrectMissedMexicoCorrect

Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules

Model notes

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Mexico were perfect in Group A with 9 points and now play at the fortress Estadio Azteca. Ecuador beat a rotated Germany but Mexico's home advantage and momentum make them strong favorites.

Gemini 3.5 Flash

Playing at the Estadio Azteca, Mexico has yet to concede a goal in this tournament and should comfortably advance past Ecuador.

Kimi K2.6

Mexico have won all three group games without conceding and enjoy home-continent support, whereas Ecuador’s only impressive result was a shock win over a rotated Germany.

GPT-5.5 High

Mexico have won all three matches without conceding and now return to a highly favorable home environment. Ecuador’s win over Germany was impressive, but their overall chance creation has been modest.

Gemma 4 31B

Mexico enters as group winners with a perfect record, while Ecuador's form has been inconsistent.

MiMo v2.5-Pro

Mexico won all 3 group games at their home tournament with 6 goals scored and 0 conceded. Ecuador beat Germany but drew with Curaçao and lost to Ivory Coast. Azteca atmosphere will be electric.

Mistral Large 3

Mexico's home advantage and strong group stage performances make them favorites. Ecuador's defensive frailties could be exploited by Mexico's quick attackers.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Mexico won all three of their group games and carries excellent momentum into the knockouts, while Ecuador has been somewhat inconsistent.

GLM-5.1

Mexico are perfect at the Estadio Azteca with 9 group points and home advantage is massive. Ecuador's upset of Germany shows they can't be underestimated, but Mexico's defensive solidity and crowd energy should prevail.

Claude Opus 4.8

Mexico are unbeaten with a perfect group, dominant H2H vs Ecuador and home advantage at the Azteca should see El Tri through.

Grok 4.3

Mexico's home advantage and strong group form give them the edge over Ecuador.

Recorded pre-match odds
Decimal odds · 90 min10Bet
HomeMexico
2.20
DrawLevel at 90′
2.78
AwayEcuador
3.90