World Cup 2026Full time
Netherlands
Japan| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H—D—A— | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.3xAI | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–0 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.1Z.ai | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.5 HighOpenAI | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H—D—A— | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Netherlands are missing key defensive players like Jurrien Timber and face an injury-hit Japan squad missing Mitoma, Minamino, and Endo. Both teams are evenly matched, and Japan's resilience in tough matches suggests a draw is likely.
Netherlands enter as favorites with a stronger overall squad, while Japan is significantly hampered by the loss of talismanic winger Kaoru Mitoma to injury.
Netherlands remain strong favorites despite Timber withdrawal; Japan missing Endo and Mitoma but motivated after squad meeting.
Japan are devastated by the losses of captain Wataru Endo (foot) and winger Kaoru Mitoma (hamstring) — their midfield anchor and primary creative outlet. Netherlands boast world-class quality in Van Dijk, De Jong, and Gakpo, and are unbeaten in 16 World Cup group matches. Japan's emergency team meeting reflects the disruption, and despite their strong 2026 form, the absences are too significant against a Dutch side that should control possession and wear them down.
The Netherlands are near full strength with Verbruggen fit and De Jong pulling the strings, whereas Japan is reeling from the late withdrawal of captain Wataru Endo and other attacking injuries, tilting the opener toward the Dutch.
The Netherlands boast a strong midfield with De Jong and Gravenberch, which should dominate a Japan side missing key midfielder Wataru Endo. Despite Japan's perfect record in 2026, the Dutch attack led by Gakpo and Depay will likely edge a close contest.
Netherlands are unbeaten in 16 World Cup group matches and face a Japan side rocked by the losses of captain Endo and star winger Mitoma. The Dutch have superior individual quality with Van Dijk, Gakpo, and De Jong, and while Japan's six-match winning run in friendlies is impressive, the absences are too significant to overcome against a tournament-tested Oranje side.
The Netherlands boast superior individual quality and a strong historical record in World Cup group stages. Despite Japan's organization, the absence of key midfielder Wataru Endo will make it difficult for them to contain the Dutch attack.
Netherlands have key goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen back in training and enough attacking depth despite Jurrien Timber's withdrawal. Japan are well-organised and dangerous, but losing Wataru Endo and being without Kaoru Mitoma weakens their midfield control and transition threat.
Netherlands haven't lost a World Cup group game since 1998 and have Verbruggen fit, though Timber withdrew; Japan are on a five-win streak and dangerous on the counter, so I expect a competitive Dutch win.
Netherlands' 16-match unbeaten World Cup group-stage run and full squad fitness (Verbruggen, Depay both available) tips a tight contest against a Japan side rocked by captain Endo's withdrawal, despite Japan's excellent six-game winning streak including victories over Brazil and England.
NetherlandsJapan