Sturm Graz
Rennes| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H34%D27%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 0–1 | H28%D33%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H29%D28%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H33%D29%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H32%D30%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H30%D35%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H30%D26%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H29%D29%A42% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H27%D28%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H26%D28%A46% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H27%D28%A45% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Rennes carry clearly more individual quality (Samba, Rongier, Cresswell, Lepaul) and should edge possession, but Sturm Graz's Merkur Arena record in Europe is strong and they are missing only Soglo with Jatta likely fit. A tight, low-scoring opener with a high draw chance is the most honest read.
Rennes arrive unbeaten in Ligue 1 with the stronger, deeper squad, but Sturm Graz have lost only once at home in competitive games all year, making this a tight opener that slightly favours the visitors by a single goal.
Rennes possess greater squad depth and top-flight quality across key areas, giving them an edge away from home despite Sturm Graz's solid domestic structure.
Sturm Graz are tough at home but are winless in five and may miss Jatta/Soglo, while Rennes bring superior Ligue 1 quality (Samba, Rongier, Blas, Al-Tamari) yet are also winless in five and inconsistent away, pointing to a tight, low-scoring game with a narrow Rennes edge.
Rennes hold a slight edge in squad quality with Blas, Thomasson and a settled back four, but Sturm Graz's home advantage in their European opener plus Rennes' fatigue after a tough Marseille match five days earlier keeps this tight. Sturm Graz missing key striker Seedy Jatta (doubtful with a knock) and already missing Soglo blunts their attacking threat, pointing toward a cagey, low-scoring stalemate rather than an open contest.
Both teams are in unconvincing form, with Sturm Graz missing key players and Rennes fielding a strong but inconsistent lineup. The match is likely to be tightly contested, with a draw the most probable outcome given the balanced midfield and defensive solidity on display.
Rennes brings clear Ligue 1 squad superiority (Samba, Rongier, Blas, Camara) against a Sturm Graz side missing Emran Soglo and with striker Seedy Jatta doubtful, tilting the edge to the visitors. Sturm's home resilience in Europe and Rennes' inconsistency on the road keep the draw and a narrow home win very live, but Rennes' individual quality should tell over 90 minutes.
Rennes arrive unbeaten in Ligue 1 (3W 1D) under Franck Haise (69% win rate) with a strong away win at Angers, while Sturm Graz sit 4th in the Bundesliga but miss creative midfielder Emran Soglo and doubt Seedy Jatta; Rennes' superior league form and defensive solidity (5 GA in 4) give them a slight edge in this Europa League opener.
Rennes have the stronger and deeper squad, particularly in midfield, but Sturm Graz’s home advantage should keep the contest close. Sturm’s attacking doubts around Seedy Jatta increase the visitors’ edge, though a low-scoring draw remains the likeliest exact scoreline.
Rennes possess superior squad quality (3rd in Ligue 1, coming off a 1-0 win vs Marseille) and are clear favorites, but their leaky defense (conceding ~2.4/game recently) combined with Sturm Graz's solid home form (2-1 win over LASK, 4th in Austria) makes a tight, low-scoring affair likely. Sturm's home advantage and Rennes' defensive frailties cancel out much of the quality gap, pointing to a narrow away edge with a draw the most probable single scoreline.
Rennes arrive unbeaten with 10 points from 4 Ligue 1 games including a win over Marseille and draw vs PSG, full squad available and superior quality, while Sturm Graz showed fight beating leaders LASK 2-1 at home but have mixed form, key doubts (Jatta, GK) and historically struggle in Europa; home edge and Rennes' clean-sheet issues make a tight draw the modal scoreline with away win still most probable result.
Sturm Graz benefit from home advantage at Merkur Arena and recent momentum from beating LASK 2-1, but Rennes carry stronger individual quality (Lepaul, Thomasson, Blas, Samba) and are on a winning Ligue 1 run; this Europa League opener profiles as a tight, evenly-matched contest where a draw is the single most probable 90-minute outcome.
Rennes possess a clearly stronger squad on paper with Ligue 1 quality throughout, but both sides enter in poor form (0 wins in last 5), which tempers confidence and elevates the draw probability. Sturm Graz's home advantage and Rennes' away struggles in Europe keep this competitive, yet the French side's individual quality should edge it.
Sturm GrazRennes