Sturm Graz
Marseille| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H29%D27%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H30%D36%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H27%D27%A46% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–0 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H32%D35%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D35%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H33%D28%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H29%D30%A41% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H30%D27%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H36%D29%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H31%D34%A35% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Marseille carry clearly superior individual quality and are in sharp attacking form, but they have shipped five goals in two European games and are missing Cornelius and Højbjerg, while Sturm Graz are organised, in good domestic scoring form and awkward opponents in Graz. That points to a narrow away edge with a high draw chance.
Sturm Graz are solid and hard to break down at home, while Marseille have been poor on their Europa League travels but have enough attacking quality to score. A tight, low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.
Marseille boast impressive attacking firepower having scored five goals at the weekend, which should give them the edge despite some key defensive absences and Sturm Graz's solid home record.
Sturm Graz's suffocating home defence and 6-1 domestic momentum meets a Marseille side missing Højbjerg and Cornelius and having conceded 5 goals in 2 Europa League games, giving the hosts a slight edge in a tight, low-scoring contest in Austria.
Sturm Graz's suffocating home defense (which earned a draw vs Rennes in MD1) matches up against a Marseille side that is conceding freely in Europe (5 goals in 2 UEL games) and missing Cornelius and Højbjerg, while still possessing enough attacking quality (5 goals past Angers) to keep this tight — a low-scoring stalemate is the most plausible single outcome, with Marseille's superior squad quality only narrowly outweighing the home side's defensive solidity.
Sturm Graz's solid defensive record and recent resilience, combined with Marseille's inconsistent away form and defensive vulnerabilities, make a draw the most likely outcome. Both teams are capable of scoring but may struggle to break down each other's defenses decisively.
Marseille carry more attacking quality (5-2 win at Angers) but have conceded five goals in two Europa League matches and are missing Højbjerg and Cornelius, while Sturm Graz are defensively solid at home, resilient (draw vs Rennes) and in form after a 6-1 win — making a tight, low-margin contest the most likely outcome.
Sturm Graz's strong home form (6-1 domestic win) and solid defensive showing against Rennes in the EL opener contrast with Marseille's 5 goals conceded in two European matches and key absences (Højbjerg, Cornelius) weakening their defensive structure.
Marseille have the greater overall quality and arrive in strong attacking form, but defensive and midfield absences reduce their edge. Sturm Graz’s home advantage and disciplined defence make a low-scoring draw a strong possibility.
Marseille possess superior squad quality and attacking threat (5-2 vs Angers), but defensive absences (Cornelius, Højbjerg) and a leaky European record (5 conceded in 2 UEL matches) undermine them against a Sturm Graz side that is defensively solid at home and coming off a confident 6-1 domestic win. Multiple previews expect a tight, low-scoring affair where Sturm's home resilience earns at least a point.
Sturm Graz's compact home defence and recent high-scoring domestic win make them tough to break down, while Marseille arrive with EL defensive frailties and key absences; a low-scoring stalemate is the single most likely outcome.
Marseille's attacking quality is offset by a leaky European defense (five goals conceded in two matches) and absences of Cornelius and Højbjerg, while Sturm Graz are defensively solid at home and in confident domestic form after a 6-1 win and a draw at Rennes. The teams look closely matched, with the draw a strong contender alongside a narrow home or away win in a low-scoring, evenly balanced contest.
Marseille's attacking quality is offset by defensive fragility (5 conceded in two EL matches) and absences of Cornelius and Højbjerg, while Sturm Graz's solid home defense and strong recent form (6-1 win, draw vs Rennes) make a tightly contested draw the most likely outcome.
Sturm GrazMarseille