HNK Hajduk Split
Pafos| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H48%D28%A24% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–0 | H56%D26%A18% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–0 | H59%D24%A17% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–0 | H58%D25%A17% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H52%D26%A22% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H42%D30%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–0 | H55%D24%A21% | Correct | Exact |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H39%D31%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–0 | H52%D26%A22% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H40%D27%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H47%D29%A24% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Hajduk hold home-first-leg advantage with three straight home wins by 2+ goals and strong Poljud form, while Pafos arrive rusty after two months without a competitive match and a poor pre-season (1 win in 4). But Pafos' proven pedigree (CL league phase last term), defensive discipline and quality like David Luiz keep this competitive, so a narrow home win is likeliest.
Hajduk's strong home form (three straight home wins by multi-goal margins) and competitive rhythm from their Zilina tie contrast with Pafos's poor pre-season (W1-D1-L2) and two-month gap since their last competitive match.
Hajduk Split boasts a formidable home record at Stadion Poljud and enters with competitive momentum, whereas Pafos FC are playing their first competitive match in nearly two months following an underwhelming pre-season. The Croatian side's superior match fitness and home advantage make them clear favorites to secure a first-leg victory.
Hajduk Split enters this tie with competitive match sharpness after defeating Zilina in the previous round, and they boast a strong home record at Stadion Poljud. Meanwhile, Pafos FC is playing their first competitive match of the season and has struggled for form during an underwhelming pre-season campaign.
Hajduk Split hold a distinct advantage playing at the passionate Stadion Poljud, though a competitive Pafos side possesses enough quality to stay in the tie. Expect a tight first-leg home victory for the Croatian side.
Hajduk Split possesses a strong home advantage at the Stadion Poljud and generally higher historical pedigree in European qualifiers compared to the emerging Pafos FC. While Pafos has invested heavily, the atmosphere in Split often proves decisive in these early qualifying rounds.
Hajduk Split at Poljud is a historically difficult venue, and even though it's pre-season for the Croatian side, home advantage in a European qualifier is significant. Pafos is a quality Cypriot side with recent Champions League-level experience, making them capable of getting a result, but Hajduk's pedigree and crowd factor tilt this marginally toward a narrow home win, with a draw a close second.
HNK Hajduk Split, as a historically strong Croatian side, holds a slight edge playing at home in a European competition qualifier, but Pafos FC's steady improvement in recent years and experience in European qualifiers makes them a competitive away side, increasing the likelihood of a draw.
Hajduk Split enter the tie with greater match sharpness and formidable recent home form, having won each of their last three home games by at least two goals, while Pafos are short of competitive rhythm after a two-month layoff and a patchy pre-season. That combination makes a controlled home victory the most likely outcome, with a clean sheet reflecting both Hajduk’s defensive solidity at Poljud and the visitors’ rustiness.
Hajduk finished 2nd in the 2025-26 HNL and are formidable at a packed Poljud in European first legs, while Pafos — despite their 2025-26 Champions League league-phase pedigree and Cypriot Cup win — arrive in early-season shape under a recently changed coach (Sá Pinto, appointed April 2026) and face a hostile away trip. Expect a tight, competitive tie with home advantage the decisive edge, though a draw is a very live outcome.
Hajduk Split finished 2nd in the stronger Croatian HNL with excellent home form (12-2-4 at Poljud) and a potent attack led by Livaja and Šego. Pafos brings superior recent European experience from the Champions League league phase and a proven goalscorer in Anderson Silva, but their late-season managerial change and modest away league form (7-2-4) temper expectations. First-leg caution in a two-legged qualifier elevates the draw probability.
Hajduk’s strong home environment at Poljud gives them a narrow edge, but Pafos have the quality to keep this tie balanced. A cautious first leg makes a low-scoring draw the likeliest scoreline.
Hajduk Split enter as second-placed Croatian side with a €38.5m squad, stable coaching under Gonzalo García, and the formidable Poljud atmosphere in early-season conditions that amplify home advantage. Pafos, while boasting recent Champions League league-phase experience, are destabilised by three coaching changes in 2026, the December sale of key player Valakari, and a new manager (Sá Pinto) only appointed in late April, making a hostile away first leg extremely difficult.
Hajduk hold a clear home edge at Poljud with strong recent home form (three straight wins by 2+ goals) and a higher squad value, while Pafos arrive rusty after a two-month competitive break and poor pre-season results. First-leg control favors the Croatians building a clean-sheet advantage.
Hajduk Split have home advantage at Poljud and stronger domestic league pedigree, but Pafos FC's impressive 2025/26 Champions League run (beating Villarreal, drawing Monaco) shows they can compete at a high European level; the first-leg caution factor and Pafos's defensive resilience point toward a tight, low-scoring draw.
Hajduk Split's home advantage at Poljud and stronger domestic league give them the edge, but Pafos's impressive European pedigree (UCL league phase last season) and first-leg caution suggest a tighter contest than typical Croatia-vs-Cyprus matchups.
HNK Hajduk SplitPafos