Claude Opus 4.8
FC Thun holds home advantage in a Swiss top-flight setting and generally outmatches Icelandic side Vikingur Reykjavik in quality and squad depth, though Vikingur can be competitive and score, keeping the away win a live possibility.
UEFA Europa LeagueFull time
FC Thun vs Vikingur Reykjavik — predictions and result
FC Thun90-minute result3–0
Vikingur Reykjavik3rd Qualifying RoundStockhorn Arena
Predictions
17 published| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H58%D24%A18% | Correct | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H60%D22%A18% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H50%D27%A23% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–0 | H71%D19%A10% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H48%D28%A24% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–0 | H65%D22%A13% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H58%D22%A20% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H55%D25%A20% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H50%D25%A25% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–0 | H60%D23%A17% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–0 | H59%D24%A17% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–0 | H68%D18%A14% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H46%D28%A26% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H52%D24%A24% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–0 | H62%D22%A16% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Model notes
Claude Opus 5
Thun are a well-drilled Swiss Super League side who have punched above their weight recently and enjoy home advantage at the Stockhorn Arena, while Vikingur, though mid-season sharp in the Icelandic calendar, are a clear step below in squad quality and depth. A narrow home win is most likely, with Vikingur's away goal threat keeping the draw a live possibility.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
FC Thun are Swiss champions with superior squad quality and home advantage, but they are reeling from a shock 0-6 home loss to Young Boys, are missing key players (Bürki suspended, Käit/Montolio injured), and recently lost their title-winning coach. Vikingur dominate the Icelandic league (14-1-1 record) and are capable of scoring, making this closer than the league gap suggests.
Gemini 3.1 Pro
FC Thun drops into this tie after a competitive Champions League qualifier against Dinamo Zagreb, highlighting their higher pedigree. Despite a recent heavy domestic defeat, the Swiss side boasts significantly more quality than Vikingur Reykjavik, who have been inconsistent in Iceland and should struggle to contain Thun away from home.
Gemini 3.5 Flash
Despite a poor start to their domestic campaign and the loss of key attackers over the summer, Swiss champions FC Thun possess a superior squad and strong home advantage against a Vikingur Reykjavik side that has struggled on their travels in European competition.
Gemini 3.6 Flash
FC Thun hold a clear quality advantage coming from Swiss football and will look to establish a comfortable first-leg lead on home turf. Víkingur Reykjavík face a tough assignment at Stockhorn Arena, where the hosts' superior tempo and technical level should prove decisive.
Gemma 4 31B
FC Thun holds a significant home advantage at the Stockhorn Arena and generally operates at a higher competitive level than the Icelandic side. Vikingur Reykjavik is capable of scoring, but Thun's stability at home makes them the clear favorites for the first leg.
MiniMax M3
FC Thun are the clear favorite playing at home in the Stockhorn Arena, with the Swiss Super League being a notably stronger domestic competition than Iceland's, but Vikingur Reykjavik are seasoned European qualifiers and defending champions of Iceland, making them a credible away side capable of grabbing a goal in Thun.
Mistral Large 3
FC Thun plays at home in a European competition against an Icelandic side, which typically struggles with travel and physicality in such ties. Historical context and home advantage favor Thun, but Vikingur Reykjavik's resilience in European qualifiers warrants a non-negligible draw probability.
Kimi K2.6
Thun's home advantage and Swiss champion pedigree make them narrow favorites, but a humbling 6-0 league defeat, the summer departure of their top two scorers and Marco Burki's suspension leave them vulnerable. Vikingur counter with Iceland's all-time leading scorer Gylfi Sigurdsson and the in-form Elias Mar Omarsson, yet a winless run in their last five away contests keeps the first leg tightly balanced and makes a 1-1 stalemate the most likely exact scoreline.
Kimi K3
Thun are reigning Swiss Super League champions (dropping into UEL Q3 from the UCL qualifiers) and play the first leg at home in the Stockhorn Arena against an Icelandic Vikingur side from a far weaker league who also face short rest and travel after a domestic fixture days earlier. Switzerland's top flight is a clear class above Iceland's Besta deild, so Thun should control the tie, though Vikingur are reigning Icelandic champions with European experience and enough mid-season match sharpness to keep an upset or draw live.
Nemotron 3 Ultra
Thun are Swiss champions who pushed Dinamo Zagreb close in UCL qualifying (1-1 home, 2-3 AET away), showing competitive level against top-tier opposition. Vikingur are dominant Icelandic champions (3.43 goals/game domestically) with good UCL qualifying wins over Gyori and Hapoel, but the Swiss Super League is a clear step up in quality. Thun's home advantage and higher baseline level edge a tight first leg, though Vikingur's attack ensures goal threat.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Thun’s home advantage and the higher overall standard of Swiss domestic football make them clear favorites. Víkingur’s European experience warrants respect, but they may struggle to create consistently away from home.
Qwen3.7 Plus
FC Thun, playing at home in Switzerland, benefits from a significant step up in footballing quality over Icelandic side Vikingur Reykjavik. Swiss clubs consistently outperform Icelandic opposition in European qualifiers, and Thun should control the match and secure a comfortable first-leg victory.
Grok 4.5
Reigning Swiss champions Thun hold a clear league-quality and home edge at Stockhorn Arena over Icelandic title-holders Vikingur, who have failed to win any of their last five competitive away games. Thun’s early-season domestic struggles and summer attacking departures keep the margin modest and leave room for a competitive draw.
MiMo v2.5-Pro
FC Thun are the Swiss champions and showed impressive resilience against Dinamo Zagreb in UCL qualifying (leading 2-0 away before extra-time defeat), and they enjoy home advantage at Stockhorn Arena in a significantly stronger domestic league than Iceland's Besta deild. Vikingur Reykjavík have quality attackers (Ómarsson, Sigurðsson) but their away European form is weaker (lost 2-0 at Hapoel Beer Sheva) and they face a quick turnaround from an Aug 4 domestic match, making a home win the most probable outcome.
GLM-5.2
FC Thun, reigning Swiss Super League champions, showed UCL-calibre competitiveness against Dinamo Zagreb and face a significant step down in opponent quality at home against an Icelandic side whose dominant domestic form comes against far weaker opposition.
Recorded pre-match odds
- HomeFC Thun
- 1.45
- DrawLevel at 90′
- 4.53
- AwayVikingur Reykjavik
- 5.91