FC ST. Gallen
Benfica| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–2 | H24%D26%A50% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H18%D24%A58% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–2 | H17%D22%A61% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H18%D22%A60% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H17%D23%A60% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 0–2 | H15%D22%A63% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H25%D30%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–2 | H20%D25%A55% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–2 | H18%D27%A55% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H20%D26%A54% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H18%D27%A55% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H18%D24%A58% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H18%D24%A58% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H20%D26%A54% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H20%D22%A58% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 0–2 | H14%D24%A62% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Benfica are a significantly stronger side with greater squad depth and European pedigree, making them clear favorites away, though St. Gallen's home advantage at Kybunpark and Benfica's early pre-season sharpness keep this from being a mismatch.
Benfica's superior squad quality and European pedigree make them clear favourites despite travelling to Kybunpark. Early-season rust, a first-ever competitive meeting, and a reported centre-back shortage add enough unpredictability to give the draw and a home upset non-trivial chances.
Despite St. Gallen's home advantage at Kybunpark, Benfica possesses vastly superior squad quality and European pedigree. While the Portuguese side may be dealing with some early-season defensive absences, their attacking firepower should be enough to secure an away victory in this qualifier.
Despite missing several key players due to post-World Cup rest, Benfica's superior squad depth and European pedigree under new manager Marco Silva make them strong favorites against a St. Gallen side that has struggled defensively in pre-season.
Benfica possess significantly superior squad depth and European pedigree, making them clear favourites even away from home in Switzerland. While St. Gallen will be competitive in front of their home supporters, Benfica's quality in attack should carry them to a first-leg victory.
Benfica possesses significantly higher squad quality and European experience compared to St. Gallen. While the Swiss side has home advantage, Benfica's offensive depth makes them heavy favorites to secure a decisive away win.
Benfica is the clear quality favorite, but this is a Europa League 2nd-round qualifier in late July with Benfica in pre-season (squad still being assembled, centre-back shortage noted) while St. Gallen is in mid-Swiss-season rhythm. Home advantage plus a rusty visiting giant makes a 1-1 draw the single most likely 90-minute outcome, with Benfica still the slight favorite to win outright.
Benfica is significantly stronger on paper and in model-based expected-goals metrics, while St. Gallen lacks recent competitive experience against elite European sides. The draw is a realistic possibility due to the first-time factor and potential early-season rust for both teams, but Benfica's quality likely prevails.
Benfica’s superior squad depth and European pedigree make them favourites even while missing several World Cup players and adapting to new coach Marco Silva, while St. Gallen’s pre-season defensive frailties and limited continental experience leave them likely to fall just short at home.
Benfica's squad quality and European pedigree are well above St. Gallen's, and the Swiss side showed real defensive fragility in pre-season (6-3 and 3-0 friendly losses). However, Benfica arrive undercooked under new boss Marco Silva with several players absent (Prestianni suspended, Bruma injured, four more on post-World Cup leave), so home advantage and first-leg caution keep the draw and an upset live.
Benfica's superior squad depth and European pedigree make them clear favorites despite St. Gallen's home advantage at Kybunpark; however, Benfica's pre-season centre-back shortage and early July fitness levels elevate draw probability above typical levels for this quality gap.
Benfica’s superior squad quality makes them clear favorites, although St. Gallen’s home advantage and Benfica’s reported centre-back shortage increase the chances of a competitive first leg.
Benfica possess a significant quality advantage over St. Gallen as a established European powerhouse facing a mid-tier Swiss side, and the AIGoalie model backs them at 62% away win confidence. However, the early-season timing (late July) and first-ever competitive meeting introduce uncertainty, keeping the draw probability elevated at 24% and preventing a more dominant away margin prediction.
Benfica hold a clear quality edge as Portuguese giants despite World Cup absences and a new coach, while St. Gallen's strong prior season and home advantage are offset by poor recent friendlies; a narrow away win is the most probable 90-minute outcome.
Benfica are a significantly higher-quality side with European pedigree and a model-backed 62% win confidence, though St. Gallen's home advantage at Kybunpark and this being a first-ever meeting add some uncertainty. Pre-season centre-back shortages for Benfica are a minor concern but unlikely to offset the clear talent gap.
Benfica are a significantly higher-quality side from a top-5 European league facing a mid-tier Swiss Super League opponent, with an xG-based model giving them 62% win confidence. The away venue and early-season timing temper but don't overturn their clear superiority.
FC ST. GallenBenfica