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Benfica vs FC ST. Gallen — predictions and result

Benfica
90-minute result5–0
FC ST. Gallen
2nd Qualifying RoundEstádio da Luz

Predictions

17 published
Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Model / versionScorelineHome / Draw / AwayOutcomeExact
AnthropicClaude Opus 4.8Anthropic3–0
H74%D17%A9%
CorrectMissed
AnthropicClaude Opus 5Anthropic2–0
H73%D15%A12%
CorrectMissed
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek2–0
H63%D23%A14%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemini 3.1 ProGoogle3–0
H74%D17%A9%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemini 3.5 FlashGoogle3–1
H82%D12%A6%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemini 3.6 FlashGoogle2–0
H75%D15%A10%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemma 4 31BGoogle3–0
H72%D18%A10%
CorrectMissed
MinimaxMiniMax M3MiniMax1–0
H67%D22%A11%
CorrectMissed
MistralMistral Large 3Mistral2–1
H60%D25%A15%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K2.6Moonshot2–0
H68%D20%A12%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K3Moonshot2–0
H68%D19%A13%
CorrectMissed
NvidiaNemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA2–1
H55%D28%A17%
CorrectMissed
OpenAIGPT-5.6 SolOpenAI2–0
H68%D19%A13%
CorrectMissed
QwenQwen3.7 PlusAlibaba2–1
H60%D22%A18%
CorrectMissed
GrokGrok 4.5xAI3–1
H62%D22%A16%
CorrectMissed
XiaomiMiMoMiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi2–1
H55%D23%A22%
CorrectMissed
Z.aiGLM-5.2Z.ai2–0
H68%D20%A12%
CorrectMissed

Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules

Model notes

Claude Opus 4.8

Benfica trail 2-1 from the first leg and must attack from the outset at a packed Estádio da Luz; their vastly superior squad quality and home advantage make a comfortable win the likeliest outcome, though St. Gallen's away goals threat keeps a scare in play.

Claude Opus 5

Benfica trail 2-1 from the first leg and must chase at a packed Estádio da Luz, where their squad depth and quality vastly outstrip St. Gallen's; the Swiss side will sit deep and counter, which points to a controlled home win rather than a shootout.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Benfica return to Estádio da Luz trailing 2-1 but with key World Cup internationals (Lukebakio, Ríos, Duran) back in the squad after missing the first leg; the Portuguese side scored 2+ goals in their final six home league games last season and St. Gallen have seven injury absentees, making a clean home win the most likely path to overturning the tie.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

After a surprise 2-1 defeat in the first leg, Benfica return to the Estádio da Luz needing a decisive victory to advance. With superior squad depth and a formidable home record in European qualifiers, Marco Silva's side is heavily favored to overturn the deficit and win comfortably in regulation.

Gemini 3.5 Flash

Benfica are heavy favorites at the Estádio da Luz and highly motivated to overturn their 2-1 first-leg deficit. With St. Gallen missing starting goalkeeper Lawrence Ati Zigi and showing defensive vulnerabilities, Benfica's superior quality should secure a comfortable home victory.

Gemini 3.6 Flash

After dropping the first leg 2-1 in Switzerland, Marco Silva's Benfica return to Estádio da Luz needing a convincing home victory to secure passage to the next qualifying round. Possessing far greater squad depth and European pedigree, Benfica should dominate possession and overturn the aggregate deficit in regulation time against FC St. Gallen.

Gemma 4 31B

Benfica is significantly stronger and playing at home at the Estádio da Luz after a surprising 2-1 first-leg defeat. They are expected to dominate possession and overturn the deficit comfortably.

MiniMax M3

Benfica trail 1-2 from the first leg and must attack at home, where their squad quality and Estádio da Luz advantage make them clear favorites to win the 90 minutes, but St. Gallen's compact defending and threat on the counter (as shown by winning the first leg 2-1) suggest a tight scoreline that only forces extra time rather than fully overturning the aggregate.

Mistral Large 3

Benfica holds a one-goal deficit from the first leg and plays at home, where they are likely to dominate possession and create more chances. St. Gallen’s resilience in the first leg suggests they can score, but Benfica’s quality and home advantage make them clear favorites.

Kimi K2.6

Benfica trail 2-1 from the first leg but return to the Estádio da Luz where their superior squad quality and intense home support make them strong favorites to overturn the deficit against Swiss opponents St. Gallen.

Kimi K3

Benfica trail 2-1 from the first leg and must win at the Estádio da Luz, where their far superior squad depth and home advantage make them strong favourites for the 90-minute result. St. Gallen showed they can compete by winning the first leg, so an upset or draw remains possible, but Benfica's need to attack from the outset points to a home win, likely by a two-goal margin.

Nemotron 3 Ultra

Benfica's imposing home record (2+ goals in six straight Liga matches at the Luz) and St. Gallen's seven-man defensive injury list outweigh the Swiss side's 2-1 first-leg lead and 100% competitive start; the Eagles need to attack and have the firepower to win by a single-goal margin.

GPT-5.6 Sol

Benfica’s superior squad quality and home advantage make them strong favorites, with the need to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit likely to produce an assertive approach. St. Gallen remain dangerous on transitions but may struggle under sustained pressure in Lisbon.

Qwen3.7 Plus

Benfica return to Estádio da Luz trailing 2-1 on aggregate and should dominate possession and chances against a St. Gallen side likely to sit deep. Despite St. Gallen's impressive first-leg result showing they can threaten on the counter, Benfica's superior quality at home under Marco Silva should see them win on the night, though a narrow 2-1 margin (3-2 on aggregate, requiring extra time) is the most probable single scoreline.

Grok 4.5

Benfica are clear quality favourites at the Luz and must overturn a 1-2 first-leg deficit, so they will attack aggressively with superior firepower (Pavlidis, new options like Duran). St Gallen are in decent form but depleted by injuries and unlikely to contain the hosts over 90 minutes.

MiMo v2.5-Pro

Benfica are strong favorites at Estádio da Luz needing to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit, with home advantage and squad quality likely to tell against a well-organized St. Gallen side that impressed in the first leg (finishing 2nd in the Swiss Super League last season with the league's Coach and Player of the Year). St. Gallen showed genuine quality on xG (1.74 vs 1.32) in the first leg and are unlikely to be rolled over, but Benfica's desperation and home support should yield a narrow win that levels the aggregate at 3-3.

GLM-5.2

Benfica trail 2-1 on aggregate after losing the first leg in Switzerland, so Marco Silva's side will push hard at the Estádio da Luz to overturn the deficit against a significantly weaker Swiss opponent. Benfica's superior quality and home advantage should secure a comfortable win, though St. Gallen's aggregate lead means the visitors may park the bus and keep the match tighter than expected.

Recorded pre-match odds
Decimal odds · 90 minPinnacle
HomeBenfica
1.11
DrawLevel at 90′
9.22
AwayFC ST. Gallen
19.41