Claude Opus 4.8
Benfica have far greater squad quality, European pedigree, and home advantage at the Estádio da Luz, with Pavlidis in strong scoring form, while Aarhus have struggled defensively early in their season.
UEFA Europa LeagueFull time
Benfica vs Aarhus — predictions and result
Benfica90-minute result3–1
AarhusPlay-offsEstádio da Luz
Predictions
18 published| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 3–0 | H78%D15%A7% | Correct | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 3–0 | H83%D11%A6% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 3–0 | H80%D14%A6% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 3–0 | H78%D15%A7% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 3–0 | H77%D15%A8% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 3–0 | H76%D16%A8% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 3–0 | H75%D17%A8% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–0 | H67%D20%A13% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H67%D20%A13% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–0 | H60%D25%A15% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–0 | H68%D19%A13% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–0 | H75%D15%A10% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–0 | H62%D23%A15% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 3–0 | H79%D14%A7% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–0 | H65%D20%A15% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–0 | H68%D20%A12% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 3–0 | H73%D16%A11% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 3–0 | H72%D19%A9% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Model notes
Claude Opus 5
Benfica are a far stronger side with vastly greater European pedigree and a formidable home record at the Luz, while Aarhus have started the season poorly and been defensively vulnerable. Expect the hosts to control the first leg and build a comfortable cushion.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Benfica have been ruthless at the Estadio da Luz in qualifying and thrashed Casa Pia 7-0, while Aarhus are winless in their opening Superliga games and were beaten 4-0 by Sabah. The attacking gulf and Aarhus' defensive issues make a comfortable home win the clear likeliest outcome.
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Benfica boasts significant European pedigree and strong attacking form, highlighted by Pavlidis's recent hat-trick. Aarhus's early-season struggles and defensive vulnerabilities make a comfortable home victory highly likely.
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Benfica possess vastly superior squad depth and European pedigree, alongside formidable home form at Estádio da Luz. Facing an Aarhus side struggling defensively early in the season, the Eagles should secure a convincing first-leg victory.
Gemini 3.7 Flash
Benfica hold a massive quality and European pedigree advantage over Aarhus, especially at the Estádio da Luz. With their attack firing in early-season domestic action, the hosts should comfortably control the first leg against a vulnerable Aarhus defense.
Gemma 4 31B
Benfica possess significantly more European experience and are in strong attacking form, particularly at the Estadio da Luz. Aarhus have struggled defensively and early in their season, making a convincing home win the most likely outcome.
Muse Spark 1.2
Benfica's superior European pedigree, strong start and attacking form at Estadio da Luz (Pavlidis hat-trick vs Casa Pia) contrasts with Aarhus' early-season struggles and defensive issues, making a convincing home win the clear most likely outcome.
MiniMax M3
Benfica, with far greater European pedigree and a strong start to the season featuring Pavlidis in red-hot form, are heavy favorites at the Estádio da Luz. Aarhus's early-season defensive frailties and limited continental experience make a comfortable home win most likely, though their attacking threat means a clean sheet is slightly less probable than a 2-1 type result.
Mistral Large 3
Benfica's superior form, attacking prowess, and home advantage at Estádio da Luz make them clear favorites, while Aarhus' defensive vulnerabilities and early-season struggles significantly reduce their chances of escaping with a positive result.
Kimi K2.6
Benfica have made a strong start to the season, possess far greater European pedigree, and are in potent attacking form at the Estádio da Luz, while Aarhus have struggled early on and shown defensive frailties that make a comfortable home win the likeliest outcome.
Kimi K3
Benfica are a class above Aarhus in squad quality and European pedigree, are in strong early-season attacking form (Pavlidis hat-trick vs Casa Pia), and are formidable at the Estadio da Luz. Aarhus's early-season struggles and defensive problems make an upset unlikely, though a first-leg play-off can occasionally produce a cagey draw.
Nemotron 3 Ultra
Benfica's superior European pedigree, strong early-season form (Pavlidis hat-trick), and home advantage at Estádio da Luz outweigh Aarhus's defensive frailties and poor start; a two-goal home win is the most probable outcome.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Benfica’s superior European pedigree, strong start and attacking form make them clear favourites at Estádio da Luz, particularly against an Aarhus side showing early-season defensive vulnerability.
Qwen3.7 Plus
Benfica enter this Europa League play-off first leg with strong early-season form — highlighted by Pavlidis's hat trick — and the significant advantage of playing at Estadio da Luz, where they are historically formidable in Europe. Aarhus's defensive vulnerabilities and relative inexperience at this level make a convincing Benfica home victory the most probable outcome.
Grok 4.5
Benfica's superior squad quality, European experience and strong home form at the Luz heavily favour a controlled win, while Aarhus's early-season defensive issues and limited continental pedigree make an away upset unlikely.
MiMo v2.5-Pro
Benfica are in devastating home form in European qualifiers (5-0 vs St. Gallen, 6-1 vs Hearts) and just thrashed Casa Pia 7-0 domestically, while Aarhus are winless in three Superliga matches, lost 4-0 away to Sabah Baku, and have several key absentees—pointing to another emphatic home victory.
GLM-5.2
Benfica have been devastating at Estádio da Luz in Europe (5-0, 6-1 wins) and just thrashed Casa Pia 7-0, while AGF are winless in three league games, lost 4-0 away in CL qualifying, and face a cup match just one day before this first leg.
Recorded pre-match odds
- HomeBenfica
- 1.15
- DrawLevel at 90′
- 8.23
- AwayAarhus
- 11.94