Anderlecht
Lyon| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H31%D27%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H36%D31%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H32%D27%A41% | Correct | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H33%D26%A41% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H32%D30%A38% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H33%D27%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H33%D29%A38% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H40%D26%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H32%D28%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H33%D27%A40% | Correct | Exact |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H33%D30%A37% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Lyon carry clearly superior squad depth and Ligue 1 pedigree, and beat Anderlecht 3-1 in their last meeting, but Anderlecht are in good European form at Lotto Park with Sikan scoring freely, so the Belgians should keep it tight in a typically cagey matchday-one fixture.
Anderlecht's strong European home run and Lyon's likely rotation point to a tight, low-scoring contest; Lyon's superior attacking quality offsets Anderlecht's home edge, making 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.
While Anderlecht carry solid momentum from qualifying at Lotto Park, Lyon possess superior individual quality across their squad to edge a competitive opening league phase clash.
Anderlecht bring strong Lotto Park form (three straight European home wins scoring three each) and Sikan's 5 goals in 6 qualifiers, but Lyon's superior Ligue 1 quality in attack with Openda, Fofana and Nuamah makes them narrow favourites away despite the hostile atmosphere.
Anderlecht boast an excellent European home record this season (three straight wins, scoring3 in each) and Sikan is in red-hot form, giving them a genuine home edge. However, Lyon's squad quality — featuring Openda, Fofana and Nuamah in attack — and their historical head-to-head superiority (3-1 last meeting) make them slight favorites on neutral terms; a tight, cagey1-1 draw feels the most realistic single scoreline for this Matchday 1 league-phase opener.
Both teams are in solid form, with Anderlecht’s strong home record and defensive solidity balanced by Lyon’s tactical discipline and recent head-to-head advantage. A draw is a genuine possibility given their evenly matched strengths.
Lyon arrive as genuine Europa League contenders — unbeaten in Ligue 1 (W2 D2, 0.8 goals conceded per game) with one defeat in seven and Openda, Tolisso and Niakhaté giving them superior quality — but Anderlecht are six unbeaten at Lotto Park and won all three European home ties this season 3-0-style, so I rate Lyon only slight favourites in a tight, low-scoring contest where 1-1 is the most likely scoreline.
Anderlecht have won all three European home matches in 2026-27 scoring three goals each time, with striker Danylo Sikan in prolific form (5 goals in 6 EL matches) and a defence yet to concede at home; Lyon possess quality in attack (Openda, Nuamah, Fofana) but face a side with strong home momentum and a 0% BTTS rate in recent games.
Anderlecht’s strong European home run and Sikan’s scoring form should make this competitive. Lyon have greater squad quality and attacking depth, but home advantage gives Anderlecht a good chance of earning a draw.
Anderlecht's impressive home European form — three straight wins scoring three goals each — combined with a rock-solid defensive record (0% BTTS) gives them a slight edge at Lotto Park. However, Lyon's quality attacking trio of Openda, Fofana, and Nuamah and their 3-1 win in the last meeting keep them very much in contention for a tight contest.
Lyon are the stronger side as unbeaten Ligue 1 contenders dropped from CL qualifiers, while Anderlecht sit mid-table domestically despite strong home Euro qualifying form and Sikan's scoring. Historical edge and quality favor a tight away win or draw, with 1-1 the modal scoreline.
Anderlecht have been prolific at home in Europe this season (3 goals per game across 3 home wins) and are on a 6-match unbeaten home run, but those results came against significantly weaker opposition than Lyon, who boast elite attacking talent in Openda, Fofana and Nuamah and are unbeaten in their last 3 away matches. Lyon's superior squad depth and Champions League qualifying pedigree should see them edge a tight contest, though Anderlecht's home European form and Sikan's 5-goal haul in 6 Europa League outings keep this very competitive.
Lyon's superior squad quality, unbeaten Ligue 1 form, and strong H2H record (3 wins from 4 meetings) give them a slight edge, though Anderlecht's impressive European home scoring run and defensive solidity keep this closely contested.
AnderlechtLyon