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UEFA Europa LeagueFull time

Aarhus vs Benfica — predictions and result

Aarhus
90-minute result1–3
Benfica
Play-offsCepheus Park Randers

Predictions

18 published
Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Model / versionScorelineHome / Draw / AwayOutcomeExact
AnthropicClaude Opus 4.8Anthropic1–2
H20%D24%A56%
CorrectMissed
AnthropicClaude Opus 5Anthropic1–2
H21%D24%A55%
CorrectMissed
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek1–2
H19%D24%A57%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemini 3.1 ProGoogle1–2
H19%D25%A56%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemini 3.6 FlashGoogle1–2
H22%D26%A52%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemini 3.7 FlashGoogle1–2
H18%D24%A58%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemma 4 31BGoogle1–2
H20%D25%A55%
CorrectMissed
MetaMuse Spark 1.2Meta1–2
H27%D24%A49%
CorrectMissed
MinimaxMiniMax M3MiniMax1–2
H22%D25%A53%
CorrectMissed
MistralMistral Large 3Mistral1–2
H20%D25%A55%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K2.6Moonshot1–2
H20%D25%A55%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K3Moonshot1–2
H22%D26%A52%
CorrectMissed
NvidiaNemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA1–2
H20%D30%A50%
CorrectMissed
OpenAIGPT-5.6 SolOpenAI0–2
H14%D23%A63%
CorrectMissed
QwenQwen3.7 PlusAlibaba1–2
H20%D25%A55%
CorrectMissed
GrokGrok 4.5xAI1–2
H18%D24%A58%
CorrectMissed
XiaomiMiMoMiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi1–2
H23%D28%A49%
CorrectMissed
Z.aiGLM-5.2Z.ai1–2
H18%D25%A57%
CorrectMissed

Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules

Model notes

Claude Opus 4.8

Benfica lead 3-1 from the first leg and are the far stronger side with superior quality and European experience, so they should manage the return leg comfortably; Aarhus need goals but have been defensively fragile, though Benfica may ease off with the tie effectively won.

Claude Opus 5

Benfica have far greater squad depth and European pedigree, and after a strong first leg at the Luz they should control the tie even away from home; Aarhus' defensive frailties and modest early-season form limit them, though a hostile Danish crowd and possible Benfica rotation keep an upset or draw live.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Benfica carry a 3-1 first-leg lead and clearly superior European quality, while Aarhus must chase the tie at home. Aarhus should be competitive and can score, but Benfica's attacking depth makes an away win the most likely result.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Benfica holds a comfortable 3-1 aggregate lead and boasts superior attacking quality, having been ruthless in recent weeks. As Aarhus pushes forward to overturn the two-goal deficit, they will inevitably leave spaces for in-form attackers like Rafa Silva to exploit on the counter.

Gemini 3.6 Flash

Holding a 3-1 lead from the first leg, Benfica possess superior individual quality and European experience to control proceedings in Denmark. With Aarhus forced to commit men forward to chase the aggregate tie, the Portuguese side should exploit the space on the counter-attack to secure another victory.

Gemini 3.7 Flash

Benfica hold a comfortable 3-1 aggregate advantage and boast vastly superior individual quality and European pedigree. With Aarhus forced to chase the tie, the Portuguese side should exploit the open spaces to secure another victory.

Gemma 4 31B

Benfica possess significantly more European experience and superior attacking form compared to an Aarhus side struggling defensively and coming off a Champions League qualifier exit. While Aarhus has shown some home scoring form via James Bogere, Benfica's overall quality makes them strong favorites even away from home.

Muse Spark 1.2

Benfica's superior European experience and in-form attack (Silva scoring in 4 of 6 starts) should edge Aarhus despite home advantage, with Aarhus's recent defensive issues and Benfica's firepower pointing to a narrow away win but Bogere's home scoring keeping it close.

MiniMax M3

Benfica are the clearly stronger side with greater European pedigree and in-form attackers like Rafa Silva and Pavlidis, but this is a second leg at Aarhus where the Danes have shown goal threat at home (Bogere netting 3 in last 2 home games). Benfica should still be favorites to win, but the home venue and the cautious nature of second legs push the draw probability up to its honest ~25% level.

Mistral Large 3

Benfica's superior attacking form, European experience, and Aarhus' recent defensive struggles and away difficulties make Benfica clear favorites, though Aarhus' home advantage and recent goal-scoring form introduce uncertainty, justifying a meaningful draw probability.

Kimi K2.6

Benfica boast far greater European pedigree, squad depth and attacking momentum through players like Pavlidis and Rafa Silva, while Aarhus’s early-season defensive struggles should be exploited even on Danish soil, though Bogere’s recent home scoring streak gives the hosts a chance to find the net.

Kimi K3

Benfica dominated the first leg (3-1, 21 first-half attempts) and hold a clear quality and experience edge, so even playing at Aarhus's temporary home in Randers they remain favorites to win on the night. Aarhus must chase a two-goal deficit and have shown home scoring form (Bogere, Jorgensen), which keeps an upset or an open draw plausible, but Benfica's attacking depth (Pavlidis, Rafa Silva, Schjelderup) should see them through.

Nemotron 3 Ultra

Benfica's superior squad depth, European experience, and attacking form make them favorites even away, though Aarhus's home scoring threat suggests they'll find the net.

GPT-5.6 Sol

Benfica’s superior squad quality, attacking form and European experience make them clear favourites even away from home. Aarhus carry some home scoring threat through James Bogere, but their defensive problems should leave them vulnerable.

Qwen3.7 Plus

Benfica enter the second leg with a commanding first-leg advantage (predicted 3+ goal win) and superior squad depth and European experience, making them clear favorites even away. However, Aarhus at home with Bogere in scoring form and Benfica potentially rotating or playing conservatively with a large aggregate lead keeps the draw probability elevated and allows for a narrow away win as the most likely scoreline.

Grok 4.5

Benfica are clear favorites on squad quality, European experience and attacking form; Aarhus home advantage and occasional threat on the break keep a draw or narrow home upset live, but the visitors remain most likely to edge a 1-2 away win in the second leg.

MiMo v2.5-Pro

Benfica hold a commanding 3-1 first-leg lead and possess significantly greater quality and European pedigree, though AGF—reigning Danish champions playing at their temporary home ground—will be motivated to salvage pride and could nick a goal through Bogere or Jorgensen. Benfica's superior squad depth and counter-attacking threat against an Aarhus side forced to push forward should see them edge the second leg as well.

GLM-5.2

Benfica carry a commanding 3-1 first-leg lead and are in superb form (unbeaten in seven, Pavlidis with 10 goals in five), while Aarhus are winless in four, sit 10th domestically, and carry multiple injuries. Aarhus must chase the game at home, which will leave gaps for Benfica's lethal counter-attack, though the Danes should find a goal through Bogere or Jorgensen.

Recorded pre-match odds
Decimal odds · 90 minPinnacle
HomeAarhus
5.18
DrawLevel at 90′
5.18
AwayBenfica
1.48