Paris Saint Germain
Aston Villa| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H57%D24%A19% | Correct | Exact |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H57%D24%A19% | Correct | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H50%D24%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–1 | H58%D24%A18% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H56%D24%A20% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H58%D24%A18% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H52%D24%A24% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H46%D28%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–1 | H50%D26%A24% | Correct | Exact |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H55%D24%A21% | Correct | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Correct | Exact |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H57%D24%A19% | Correct | Exact |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Correct | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H47%D27%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H54%D26%A20% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
PSG are the reigning Champions League and Super Cup holders and have named a full-strength squad (Dembélé, Doué, Hakimi, Kvaratskhelia, Barcola), giving them a clear quality edge over Emery's Europa League winners on neutral ground; returning World Cup players and preseason patchiness plus Villa's proven ability to trouble them (a 3-2 win last season) keep the draw and away outcomes meaningfully alive.
As Champions League winners with a deeper, more expensively assembled squad and an attack that consistently overwhelms opponents, PSG are clear favourites on neutral ground against a Europa League-winning Aston Villa side that defends well and carries a genuine threat on the counter through Watkins and Rogers. Villa's organisation and Emery's record in one-off European finals keep the draw and upset probabilities meaningful, but PSG's superior individual quality should decide a competitive game.
PSG, back-to-back Champions League winners, boast superior depth and a fully available squad, while Aston Villa are depleted by the summer departures of Tielemans and Rogers plus injuries to Onana, Manzambi and Bailey. Champions League holders have won the last seven Super Cups, and Luis Enrique (2/2 in this fixture) faces an Unai Emery side that has lost all three of his previous Super Cup appearances.
As two-time defending Champions League winners in this simulated timeline, Paris Saint-Germain enter the Super Cup as clear favorites. While Europa League victors Aston Villa possess the tactical discipline to keep the match competitive, PSG's immense European pedigree and attacking firepower should see them secure the victory in regulation.
Reigning Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain enter as strong favorites against an Aston Villa side undergoing a minor rebuild after losing key players like Tielemans and Rogers. While both teams are integrating players post-World Cup, PSG's superior squad depth and attacking quality should guide them to victory.
As back-to-back Champions League winners, PSG possess superior overall quality and depth compared to an Aston Villa side coping with key summer departures. While early-season fitness management following international tournaments may keep the contest close, PSG remain strong favorites to edge victory in regulation time.
PSG generally possesses a higher individual quality ceiling and stronger experience in European finals compared to Aston Villa. While Villa is competitive, PSG's offensive depth makes them the favorites to edge a close contest.
PSG enters as Champions League holders and has the deeper, more expensively assembled squad, justifying favoritism despite this being played at a neutral venue early in the season. However, the head-to-head data (Villa unbeaten in 3 of last 5 against PSG) and Aston Villa's Europa League-winning pedigree keep the upset and draw probabilities meaningfully live in a one-off final where margins are typically tight.
The head-to-head history shows balanced outcomes, with both teams winning twice and two draws in the last five meetings. This suggests a closely contested match, making a draw the most likely single outcome, though either team could edge it.
Paris Saint-Germain’s superior individual quality and squad depth give them the edge in a neutral final despite both teams showing uneven form. Aston Villa’s recent results have been volatile with no draws, but PSG’s control and firepower make a narrow victory the most probable outcome.
PSG arrive as back-to-back European champions with a full-strength squad (no reported absentees), while Aston Villa have lost key men Rogers and Tielemans and are without Onana, Bailey and Manzambi, tipping a neutral-venue one-off toward Paris. However, Villa won the most recent H2H 3-2, both prior meetings were goal-heavy, and post-World Cup early-season rust keeps the draw and an Emery upset genuinely live.
PSG enter as back-to-back Champions League winners with a mental edge from their 2024/25 quarter-final win over Villa (5-4 aggregate), superior squad depth, and the historical trend of UCL holders winning the last seven Super Cups. Villa are in a rebuild after losing Rogers and Tielemans, though new signings Garnacho and João Gomes add threat; both teams have shown vulnerable pre-season form and both scored in their two previous meetings, supporting a narrow PSG win.
PSG's greater squad depth, technical quality and experience in elite European matches make them the likelier winners. Aston Villa's counterattacking threat should keep the contest competitive, with a regulation-time draw still a meaningful possibility.
PSG enter as heavy favorites given their back-to-back Champions League titles and sextuple, but Aston Villa's tactical threat under Unai Emery—a former PSG coach who knows their system intimately—keeps this competitive. Villa's significant squad disruption (departures of Rogers, Tielemans, and Digne just a day ago) and multiple injury doubts for key players like Martínez and Watkins tilt the balance toward PSG, though both teams' rusty pre-season form and the neutralvenue one-off nature of the fixture sustain a meaningful draw probability.
PSG as back-to-back Champions League winners hold the edge in quality and European pedigree over Europa League champions Villa on neutral ground, though post-World Cup fitness concerns and Villa's attacking threat (evident in their 2025 H2H) keep it competitive with a realistic draw chance.
PSG's back-to-back Champions League pedigree makes them marginal favorites, but World Cup fatigue for several key players and a neutral venue in Salzburg keep this close. Villa's significant summer departures (Rogers, Tielemans, Digne) and injury concerns slightly tip the balance toward PSG, though Emery's tactical nous and Villa's proven ability to compete with PSG (won the CL QF second leg 3-2) suggest a tight contest.
PSG are back-to-back Champions League winners with a superior squad, but Aston Villa under Emery proved they can compete in last season's CL quarter-final (5-4 aggregate). Villa's tactical discipline and Emery's cup expertise should keep it close, but PSG's individual quality edges it in a neutral-venue one-off.
Paris Saint GermainAston Villa