Sturm Graz
Heart Of Midlothian| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–0 | H58%D25%A17% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–0 | H64%D23%A13% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H52%D28%A20% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H58%D24%A18% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H49%D28%A23% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–0 | H58%D24%A18% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–0 | H58%D25%A17% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–0 | H62%D22%A16% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–0 | H58%D24%A18% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H52%D27%A21% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Sturm Graz are Austrian champions with strong recent European experience and home advantage, while Hearts arrive in transition under a new head coach and missing up to 10 first-team players, making a controlled home win the most likely outcome.
Sturm Graz's settled squad, five-year European group-stage pedigree, and sold-out home advantage tilt the tie in their favour, but Hearts showed quality beating Rayo Vallecano and can punish the space Sturm's aggressive press leaves in transition — especially if key man Kiteishvili is not fully fit.
Sturm Graz are a formidable side at home and face a Hearts team undergoing significant squad turnover and a recent managerial search. The Austrian side should have too much quality and tactical cohesion for the visitors in this first leg.
Sturm Graz holds a strong home advantage and greater European pedigree than Hearts, who are playing their first competitive match under new manager Wouter Vrancken. While the Scottish side showed promise in pre-season, their poor away record and tactical transition favor a narrow victory for the Austrian hosts.
Sturm Graz enters as the stronger side playing at home, while Hearts are reportedly undergoing tactical shifts and squad changes ahead of this qualifier. The home advantage and perceived stability of the Austrian side make them clear favorites.
Sturm Graz are clear favorites with five consecutive seasons of European competition experience, strong home form (W5 in 7), and stability under manager Ingolitsch after finishing runners-up in Austria. Hearts, by contrast, are starting life under new boss Wouter Vrancken in his first competitive match, lack recent Champions League pedigree (first qualifier in 20 years), and have a poor away record (W2, D2, L5 in 9 since January), but a spirited 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano and the cautious nature of a first leg keep the draw firmly in play.
Sturm Graz enter this fixture as the stronger side based on their domestic league stature, tactical preparation, and home advantage, but Heart of Midlothian are resilient and capable of exploiting defensive vulnerabilities. The lack of head-to-head history and Hearts' recent squad adjustments introduce uncertainty, making a draw a credible outcome.
Sturm Graz are well-set at home and face a much-changed Hearts side that is still adapting to new tactics and dealing with goalkeeping uncertainty, giving the Austrians the clearest path to victory.
Sturm Graz hold home advantage in a first-leg qualifier and have used pre-season friendlies to embed tactical patterns, while Hearts are described as a much-changed side in early-season transition with goalkeeper uncertainty.
Sturm Graz's home advantage and greater recent European pedigree make them favorites against a much-changed Hearts side still settling its tactical setup. An early-season qualifier may be cautious, so a narrow, low-scoring home win is most likely.
Sturm Graz possess a clear advantage in squad depth and home advantage at the Merkur-Arena, while Hearts travel to Austria amid managerial uncertainty and significant squad turnover. The Austrians are expected to control the tempo and secure a comfortable first-leg lead.
Sturm Graz are clear favourites at home in CL qualifying against a Hearts side still settling under new management and with squad upheaval; Austrian side's superior European pedigree and pre-season sharpness point to a controlled home win, though draws remain common at this stage.
Sturm Graz have been consistent European campaigners (four straight seasons of league-phase continental football), hold home advantage at Merkur Arena, and are facing a Hearts side in significant transition — new head coach Wouter Vrancken's first competitive match, a major squad overhaul with 10 first-teamers omitted, and the losses of Lawrence Shankland and retired Craig Gordon. Hearts' friendly win over Rayo Vallecano is encouraging but not enough to offset the disruption of a new system being implemented on such a quick turnaround.
Sturm Graz's superior European experience (5 straight group/league phase appearances), formidable home record (unbeaten in 9 straight league home matches, 1 loss in 20 overall), and settled squad under Fabio Ingolitsch give them a clear edge over a Hearts side still adapting to new manager Wouter Vrancken after just 3-4 weeks, with 8 new signings and a poor away record (2 wins in last 9 away). However, Sturm Graz's noted tendency to draw at home and the cautious nature of first legs keep the draw probability meaningful.
Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian