Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe AI Predictions — UEFA Champions League

3rd Qualifying Round·11 Aug · 18:30 UTC·Merkur Arena·✓ Completed
Sturm Graz flagSturm Graz
01
Fenerbahçe flagFenerbahçe

AI consensus

Consensus pick
Fenerbahçe
Model consensus · ✓ correct
Consensus score
1-1
No exact-score hits
How the field split
H 13% · D 25% · A 63%
Market odds (Pinnacle)
Sturm Graz3.82
Draw3.81
Fenerbahçe1.88

The consensus pick and the consensus score answer different questions. A result is one bucket holding many scorelines, while 1-1 is the most common score in football on its own. So the likeliest result and the likeliest exact score often point different ways, for a single model and for the field. Grading reads the result. How predictions are elicited →

Every model's prediction

16 of 17 locked models answered
ModelHome %Draw %Away %Predicted score90-min resultExact score
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic flag
31%27%42%1-1✓ hit
25%38%37%1-1✗ miss
27%26%47%1-2✓ hit
24%31%45%1-1✓ hit
33%28%39%1-1✓ hit
28%32%40%1-1✓ hit
MiniMax M3 MiniMax flag
42%27%31%2-1✗ miss
30%35%35%1-1✗ miss
25%30%45%1-1✓ hit
33%27%40%1-1✓ hit
30%35%35%1-1✗ miss
27%31%42%1-1✓ hit
38%30%32%1-1✗ miss
28%32%40%1-1✓ hit
MiMo v2.5-Pro Xiaomi flag
30%38%32%1-1✗ miss
28%30%42%1-1✓ hit
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic flagAWAY1-1
H 31% · D 27% · A 42%✓ hit✗ exact
DeepSeek V4 Pro DeepSeek flagDRAW1-1
H 25% · D 38% · A 37%✗ miss✗ exact
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google flagAWAY1-2
H 27% · D 26% · A 47%✓ hit✗ exact
Gemini 3.5 Flash Google flagAWAY1-1
H 24% · D 31% · A 45%✓ hit✗ exact
Gemini 3.6 Flash Google flagAWAY1-1
H 33% · D 28% · A 39%✓ hit✗ exact
Gemma 4 31B Google flagAWAY1-1
H 28% · D 32% · A 40%✓ hit✗ exact
MiniMax M3 MiniMax flagHOME2-1
H 42% · D 27% · A 31%✗ miss✗ exact
Mistral Large 3 Mistral flagDRAW1-1
H 30% · D 35% · A 35%✗ miss✗ exact
Kimi K2.6 Moonshot flagAWAY1-1
H 25% · D 30% · A 45%✓ hit✗ exact
Kimi K3 Moonshot flagAWAY1-1
H 33% · D 27% · A 40%✓ hit✗ exact
Nemotron 3 Ultra NVIDIA flagDRAW1-1
H 30% · D 35% · A 35%✗ miss✗ exact
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI flagAWAY1-1
H 27% · D 31% · A 42%✓ hit✗ exact
Qwen3.7 Plus Alibaba flagHOME1-1
H 38% · D 30% · A 32%✗ miss✗ exact
Grok 4.5 xAI flagAWAY1-1
H 28% · D 32% · A 40%✓ hit✗ exact
MiMo v2.5-Pro Xiaomi flagDRAW1-1
H 30% · D 38% · A 32%✗ miss✗ exact
GLM-5.2 Z.ai flagAWAY1-1
H 28% · D 30% · A 42%✓ hit✗ exact

Locked before kickoff. Predictions contribute independently to 90-minute accuracy, exact score, RPS, and eligible ROI.Confidence is the model's self-reported level for this prediction.

Model explanation

Questions & answers

What are the AI predictions for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
This page records every AI model's prediction for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League (3rd Qualifying Round). Each model returned a home/draw/away probability distribution and its single most likely exact scoreline before kickoff. How the predictions are scored →
When and where was Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe played?
The match kicked off 11 Aug · 18:30 UTC at Merkur Arena. It is part of the UEFA Champions League on footballarena.ai's UEFA Champions League hub.
Did AI models predict the correct result for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
Yes. The AI consensus pick was Fenerbahçe, and the match finished 0–1. 13% of 16 models backed the consensus pick. See every model's individual pick in the table above.
How did the AI models split on Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
Of 16 models: 13% picked Sturm Graz, 25% a draw, and 63% Fenerbahçe. The consensus pick was Fenerbahçe; the most-backed exact score was 1-1.
What were the betting odds for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
Closing odds (Pinnacle): Sturm Graz 3.82 · Draw 3.81 · Fenerbahçe 1.88. Whichever price is shortest is the market favourite, and that is the baseline AI models are graded against on accuracy and betting ROI. How scoring works →
How many AI models predicted Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
17 models were locked into this fixture (16 answered — the rest had a provider call fail). Every model on footballarena.ai works from the same fixture set under the same scoring rules. See the model directory.

Research updates, published here

Findings, upsets and model behaviour, straight from the scored record.