Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–1 | H38%D27%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H31%D27%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H25%D38%A37% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–2 | H27%D26%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H24%D31%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H33%D28%A39% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H28%D32%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H30%D35%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–1 | H25%D30%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H33%D27%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H30%D35%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H27%D31%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H28%D32%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H30%D38%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H28%D30%A42% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Sturm Graz must chase a 2-0 aggregate deficit at home, forcing them to attack and leaving space for Fenerbahce's superior attackers (Talisca, Greenwood, Aktürkoğlu) to counter; the Turkish side are unbeaten in their last five European away games and hold the tie's control, making an open, tightly balanced match likely.
Fenerbahçe carry clearly superior squad depth and attacking quality (Greenwood, Asensio and co.), but Sturm Graz are well-drilled, organised and traditionally hard to beat in Graz, especially in a second leg where they can sit deep and counter. A tight, low-scoring tie is likely, with the draw a very live outcome.
Fenerbahce carry a 2-0 first-leg lead and are unbeaten in five European away trips (W2 D3), while Sturm Graz have won six of nine at home but must attack, leaving them exposed to Fenerbahce's counter-attacking quality (Talisca, Greenwood, Akturkoglu). The tie situation and Fenerbahce's defensive core (Skriniar, Kante, Guendouzi) point to a draw as both sides cancel each other out.
Trailing 2-0 from the first leg in Istanbul, Sturm Graz will be forced to adopt an attacking approach to salvage the tie. This urgency will inevitably leave spaces at the back for Fenerbahçe's high-quality forwards to exploit on the counter-attack, making an away win the most likely outcome.
Fenerbahçe hold a comfortable 2-0 aggregate lead and possess a vastly superior squad, allowing them to manage the game and exploit spaces on the counter. While Sturm Graz will push forward at home, the Turkish side's defensive resilience should help them secure a score draw to progress.
Carrying a 2-0 advantage from the first leg, Fenerbahçe can manage the tempo and absorb pressure while threatening on the counter against a Sturm Graz side forced to push forward. The Austrians should prove competitive at home, but Fenerbahçe's extra quality and game-state control favor a draw or narrow away victory.
Fenerbahçe possesses superior individual quality and recruitment, but reports suggest some key players are not yet at peak fitness. Sturm Graz's strong domestic form and the likelihood of a cautious approach in this leg point toward a closely contested match with a high probability of a draw.
Sturm Graz face a 2-0 first-leg deficit at home and must push forward, opening space for Fenerbahçe's dangerous counter-attackers (Greenwood, Talisca, En-Nesyri); Sturm's strong home form and 18.5 shots/2.38 away xG in this competition give them the edge to score, but Fenerbahçe's quality on the break keeps a narrow away win and a draw live.
Both teams are closely matched, with Fenerbahçe possessing superior attacking talent but Sturm Graz organized defensively and capable of threatening on the break. The preview sources emphasize a balanced contest, with a draw a feasible outcome given Sturm Graz's defensive approach and Fenerbahçe's fitness concerns.
Sturm Graz must overturn a two-goal first-leg deficit at the Merkur Arena, which will force them to take risks against a Fenerbahçe side that is unbeaten in its last five European away matches and boasts in-form attackers Talisca and Mason Greenwood; despite the Turkish side's advantage, the most probable exact scoreline is a cagey 1-1 as the hosts find the net but cannot break down the visitors' defense enough to secure the required win.
Sturm trail 2-0 from the first leg in Istanbul and must chase the tie at Merkur Arena, but Fenerbahçe's superior firepower (Talisca has scored in all three UCL outings, plus Greenwood and Asensio) and five-match unbeaten away run in Europe make them slight favourites to exploit the space Sturm will leave. Sturm's strong home European record (6 wins in 9, including 4-0 v Hearts) keeps them live, yet with Kiteishvili doubtful a scoring draw that sends Fener through looks the single most likely scoreline.
Fenerbahçe likely carry a first-leg advantage and have superior individual quality, but fitness concerns for new signings and Sturm Graz's home momentum with a defensive approach make a low-scoring draw the most probable 90-minute outcome.
Fenerbahçe have the stronger squad and greater attacking depth, but reported fitness concerns and Sturm Graz’s home advantage narrow the gap. Sturm’s compact organization and counterattacking threat make a low-scoring draw the likeliest exact scoreline.
Sturm Graz must overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit at home and will push forward, but Fenerbahçe's potent counter-attacking threat through Greenwood and Talisca — combined with Sturm's exposed defensive lines — makes a tight, cagey affair likely. Fenerbahçe are comfortable protecting their aggregate lead and only need to avoid losing by two goals, while Sturm's home intensity and attacking quality (6-0 aggregate vs Hearts in the prior round) should produce at least one goal, pointing to a 1-1 draw as the most probable 90-minute outcome.
Fenerbahçe hold a commanding 2-0 first-leg lead plus superior quality (Greenwood, Talisca, Kanté) and strong recent away European form, while Sturm must attack at home yet lack the firepower to overturn the deficit cleanly, pointing to a shared-spoils second leg.
Fenerbahçe hold a commanding 2-0 first-leg lead (Talisca 9', Greenwood 45') and will sit deep and manage the tie, while Sturm Graz—emphatic 6-0 winners over Hearts in the previous round—will attack desperately at home but face a well-organized Mourinho defence; a cagey draw is the most likely outcome as Fenerbahçe protect their aggregate advantage.
Fenerbahçe are the stronger side and likely carry a first-leg lead, but fitness concerns around key new signings and Sturm Graz's home advantage and strong recent form suggest a closely contested match where a draw is highly plausible.
Sturm GrazFenerbahçe