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Sparta Praha vs Lyon — predictions and result

Sparta Praha
90-minute result2–1
Lyon
3rd Qualifying RoundPragues Letna Hill

Predictions

17 published
Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Model / versionScorelineHome / Draw / AwayOutcomeExact
AnthropicClaude Opus 4.8Anthropic1–1
H37%D30%A33%
CorrectMissed
AnthropicClaude Opus 5Anthropic1–1
H37%D28%A35%
CorrectMissed
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek1–2
H22%D28%A50%
MissedMissed
GoogleGemini 3.1 ProGoogle1–2
H22%D26%A52%
MissedMissed
GoogleGemini 3.5 FlashGoogle1–2
H25%D27%A48%
MissedMissed
GoogleGemini 3.6 FlashGoogle1–2
H30%D28%A42%
MissedMissed
GoogleGemma 4 31BGoogle1–2
H32%D27%A41%
MissedMissed
MinimaxMiniMax M3MiniMax1–1
H38%D33%A29%
CorrectMissed
MistralMistral Large 3Mistral1–1
H40%D30%A30%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K2.6Moonshot1–2
H20%D30%A50%
MissedMissed
KimiKimi K3Moonshot1–2
H28%D27%A45%
MissedMissed
NvidiaNemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA1–2
H30%D30%A40%
MissedMissed
OpenAIGPT-5.6 SolOpenAI1–1
H29%D29%A42%
MissedMissed
QwenQwen3.7 PlusAlibaba1–2
H23%D26%A51%
MissedMissed
GrokGrok 4.5xAI1–2
H30%D29%A41%
MissedMissed
XiaomiMiMoMiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi1–2
H28%D27%A45%
MissedMissed
Z.aiGLM-5.2Z.ai1–2
H23%D26%A51%
MissedMissed

Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules

Model notes

Claude Opus 4.8

Sparta's strong home form and mid-season match sharpness offset Lyon's superior squad quality but poor pre-season form and first competitive outing, pointing to a tight, low-scoring first leg with a real draw probability.

Claude Opus 5

Sparta are mid-season sharp (Czech league underway, strong Letna record of five wins and a draw in their last six home games), while Lyon arrive for their first competitive match after a poor pre-season capped by a 4-0 loss to Betis and without Tagliafico; Lyon's superior squad depth keeps them level on quality, so a tight, low-scoring first leg with a high draw chance looks most likely.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Lyon's superior squad quality and dominant H2H record (5W-1D-0L) give them a clear edge, but Sparta's strong home form (6 unbeaten) and competitive sharpness from two league games already played should keep this tight. Lyon's defensive frailties in pre-season suggest Sparta can find the net, but Openda and Fofana should expose an injury-hit Sparta backline.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Lyon boast a superior squad featuring explosive attackers like Loïs Openda and Ernest Nuamah, giving them a distinct edge despite playing away. Sparta Praha are dealing with several injuries and, while formidable at home, will likely struggle to contain the French side's firepower.

Gemini 3.5 Flash

Lyon boasts a superior squad on paper, bolstered by the addition of forward Loïs Openda, and is expected to overcome Sparta Praha's home advantage despite the Czech side's solid domestic form.

Gemini 3.6 Flash

Olympique Lyon possess greater individual quality and European experience, though Sparta Praha are always a stern test at the Epet Arena. In this first-leg tie, the visitors' superior attacking depth should give them a narrow edge in Prague.

Gemma 4 31B

Lyon generally possesses a higher individual quality squad and more European pedigree, though Sparta Praha are strong at home in qualifying rounds. Lyon's offensive capabilities make them slight favorites in a match likely to see goals on both sides.

MiniMax M3

First leg caution typically dominates, and although Lyon hold the superior squad on paper, they arrive for their first competitive outing after a poor pre-season (4-0 loss to Real Betis), while Sparta boast excellent home form (5W, 1D in last 6 at Letná) but carry injury absentees and defensive frailties, making a hard-fought stalemate the most plausible outcome.

Mistral Large 3

Sparta Praha and Lyon are closely matched in this Champions League qualifying tie, with Sparta's home advantage slightly favoring them, but Lyon's experience and attacking quality make them strong contenders. A draw is a realistic outcome given the balanced nature of the teams.

Kimi K2.6

Lyon's superior individual quality and strong record of avoiding defeat in first-leg European ties give them a narrow edge. Sparta's lengthy injury list and shaky early-season form undermine their solid home record, pointing to a tight away victory.

Kimi K3

Lyon bring a clearly stronger squad (Openda, Fofana, Nuamah, Tolisso, Niakhaté) after just missing a direct UCL spot in Ligue 1, and they are unbeaten in six historical meetings with Sparta (5 wins, 1 draw). Sparta's home edge at Letná and Lyon's preseason rust (4-0 friendly loss to Betis) keep this competitive, but Sparta's lengthy injury list tilts the balance toward a narrow away win in the first leg.

Nemotron 3 Ultra

Sparta Praha boast strong home form (W5 D1 in last 6) but face a severe injury crisis with 9+ players sidelined. Lyon have superior squad depth and an unbeaten H2H record (W5 D1), though they arrive rusty after a 4-0 friendly loss to Real Betis and no competitive matches yet. The visitors' quality and European experience edge a tight first leg.

GPT-5.6 Sol

Lyon have the stronger squad and greater top-level depth, but Sparta’s home advantage should make this qualifier competitive. A low-margin match is likely, with 1-1 the most plausible individual scoreline despite a slight overall lean toward Lyon.

Qwen3.7 Plus

Lyon possess significantly superior individual quality with Openda, Tolisso, and Ekambi, and have never lost to Sparta in six prior meetings, but their leaky pre-season defence (conceding 4 vs Betis, 3 vs St. Gallen) and Sparta's home advantage in Prague make a tight, both-teams-score affair likely. Sparta's injury list (Macek, Vydra, Kofod Andersen) weakens their midfield depth, giving Lyon the edge in a high-stakes first leg.

Grok 4.5

Lyon hold superior squad quality and a perfect H2H record (5 wins, 1 draw in 6 meetings) plus an unbeaten streak in European first legs, outweighing Sparta's strong home form (unbeaten in 6) and Lyon's rusty pre-season that included a 4-0 loss; Sparta's lengthy injury list further tilts a tight qualifier toward a narrow away win.

MiMo v2.5-Pro

Lyon's superior squad quality and dominant H2H record (unbeaten in 6 European meetings vs Sparta) make them clear favorites, though Sparta's home advantage and Lyon's inconsistent preseason (4-0 loss to Betis) suggest a competitive contest rather than a blowout.

GLM-5.2

Lyon's clear quality advantage, dominant H2H record (5 wins in 6 meetings), and Sparta's injury list and leaky defense point to an away win, though Sparta's home crowd and Lyon's mixed pre-season form keep the match competitive.

Recorded pre-match odds
Decimal odds · 90 minPinnacle
HomeSparta Praha
3.37
DrawLevel at 90′
3.71
AwayLyon
1.98