Lyon
Fenerbahçe| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H50%D27%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–1 | H47%D25%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H52%D26%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H52%D26%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H47%D26%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H52%D27%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H50%D26%A24% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H42%D32%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H45%D29%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H48%D25%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
After a 1-1 first-leg draw in Istanbul, Lyon host the decisive leg at home where they've shown strong form (3-0 vs Sparta), giving them a modest edge, but Fenerbahce's attacking threat (Greenwood, Talisca) keeps this an evenly balanced tie with meaningful draw and away potential.
Lyon host the decisive leg after drawing away in Istanbul, and their home advantage plus better overall balance gives them a modest edge, though Fenerbahçe's attacking quality keeps this close. A tight, tense tie with both sides scoring is likely, so a level 90-minute scoreline is a real possibility even if Lyon edge it late.
Lyon's strong home form, returning Sulc and Tagliafico, and Fenerbahce's key attacking doubts tilt the second leg toward the hosts. Fenerbahce still carry enough quality to score, so a narrow 2-1 Lyon win is the likeliest outcome.
Following a 1-1 draw in Istanbul, Lyon hold the upper hand with home advantage for the decisive second leg. While Fenerbahçe boast an expensively assembled squad featuring in-form Talisca, Lyon's strong historical record in European qualifiers and the backing of the Groupama Stadium crowd make them favorites to edge a tight contest.
After a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Istanbul, Lyon hold a significant advantage returning to Groupama Stadium, where Paulo Fonseca's side have been formidable in Europe. While Fenerbahçe possess potent attacking options, key defensive absences and Lyon's greater overall balance should see the French hosts secure a narrow 2-1 win.
After securing a valuable 1-1 draw in Istanbul in the first leg, Lyon hold the decisive home advantage with greater squad depth and attacking quality to edge past Fenerbahçe in regulation.
Lyon enters the second leg with the advantage of home soil and a draw from the first leg. While Fenerbahce has strong attacking talent, Lyon's overall balance and home advantage make them slight favorites to edge this decisive match.
Lyon earned a 1-1 away draw in Istanbul and now have the decisive second leg at home with greater balance and form, while Fenerbahçe carry fitness doubts (Amrabat, Soyuncu, Lukaku) and must overcome the home advantage to advance.
Lyon hold the away-goal advantage from the 1-1 first leg in Istanbul and now have home soil for the decider, while Fenerbahçe are without key attacking and defensive options (Lukaku, Amrabat, Söyüncü). Lyon's stronger recent form, greater squad balance, and the cushion of an away goal tilt the tie toward the French side, with a narrow 1-0 home win the most likely 90-minute outcome.
Lyon secured an away draw in the first leg despite missing key attacking threats, demonstrating resilience and tactical discipline. Fenerbahçe’s home advantage and recent form are offset by significant fitness doubts, while Lyon’s greater balance and the advantage of playing the decisive leg at home tilt the probabilities toward a tightly contested match with a slight edge for Lyon to avoid defeat.
Lyon’s strong home record, the return of key attackers, and Fenerbahçe’s defensive absences and inconsistent form make a narrow home win the most likely outcome in this decisive second leg.
After a 1-1 first leg in Istanbul, Lyon host the decisive leg in stronger overall form with greater squad balance, while Fenerbahçe travel without key figures such as Amrabat, Soyuncu and Lukaku. Fenerbahçe's European experience and attacking talent keep this competitive, so a draw (forcing extra time) remains a live possibility, but home advantage tilts it toward Lyon.
Lyon's formidable home record in qualifiers (3-0 vs Sparta, 2-0 vs Toulouse), historical dominance over Fenerbahçe, and the return of key midfielders Morton and Tolisso give them the edge. Fenerbahçe miss suspended Yandas and injured Soyuncu/Gunok, and their domestic form has been inconsistent. The 1-1 first-leg draw leaves the tie perfectly balanced, but Lyon's home advantage and tactical stability under Fonseca make a narrow home win the most likely 90-minute outcome.
After an evenly contested first-leg draw, Lyon’s home advantage and greater overall balance give them a modest edge. Fenerbahçe still carry enough attacking quality to score, but reported fitness concerns weaken their chances of winning in regulation.
Lyon hold a 1-1 aggregate tie and enjoy the decisive leg at home, where their greater squad balance and Lois Openda's form give them a clear edge. Fenerbahçe are significantly weakened by the absences of Lukaku, Amrabat, and Soyuncu, making it difficult for them to impose themselves away from Istanbul despite their qualifier experience.
Second leg after a first-leg draw in Istanbul; Lyon hold home advantage and solid balance but Fenerbahçe bring strong away threat and set-piece quality, making a low-scoring stalemate the most probable 90-minute outcome with both sides still live.
Lyon hold the advantage as hosts for the decisive second leg after a 1-1 draw in Istanbul, with strong home qualifying pedigree (won 5 of last 6 two-legged CL ties), good recent form (2-0 over Toulouse), and returning key men like Sulc and Tagliafico. Fenerbahçe are missing Lukaku, Soyuncu, and goalkeeper Gunok, and have shown inconsistency (shock loss to Genclerbirligi), though Talisca's scoring threat keeps them dangerous.
Lyon hold home advantage after a 1-1 first-leg draw and boast strong recent home form (3-0 vs Sparta Prague, 2-0 vs Toulouse), with key players Tolisso, Sulc, and Tagliafico returning. Fenerbahçe's expensively assembled squad (Kanté, Greenwood, Asensio, Talisca) keeps them dangerous, but their poor Champions League qualifying history and defensive injury concerns tip the balance toward Lyon.
LyonFenerbahçe