Claude Opus 4.8
Fenerbahçe hold a clear home advantage with strong recent form and territorial dominance, but Sturm Graz's transition threat through Seidl and Wlodarczyk makes a Fenerbahçe win with both teams scoring the most likely outcome.
UEFA Champions LeagueFull time
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz — predictions and result
Fenerbahçe90-minute result2–0
Sturm Graz3rd Qualifying RoundChobani Stadium
Predictions
17 published| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H62%D22%A16% | Correct | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–0 | H60%D23%A17% | Correct | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H53%D27%A20% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–0 | H68%D21%A11% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H60%D24%A16% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–0 | H65%D21%A14% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–0 | H62%D22%A16% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H60%D23%A17% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H55%D25%A20% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–1 | H54%D26%A20% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–0 | H63%D23%A14% | Correct | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H62%D23%A15% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–0 | H61%D23%A16% | Correct | Exact |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–0 | H60%D23%A17% | Correct | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–0 | H58%D24%A18% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H56%D24%A20% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–0 | H63%D22%A15% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Model notes
Claude Opus 5
Fenerbahçe have a clear squad-depth and home-atmosphere edge in the first leg, and should dominate territory and shot volume against a Sturm side likely to sit deep and play for the return fixture in Graz. Sturm's transition threat keeps an upset or draw live, but a narrow two-goal home win is the most likely outcome.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Fenerbahçe's strong home record (W5 D3 in last 8 competitive fixtures at Şükrü Saracoğlu) and superior squad depth give them the edge, but Sturm Graz arrive in excellent form — winning five straight before a 1-1 draw at Tirol — and will sit deep to stay in the tie ahead of the return leg. The hosts should edge a tight first leg, with Sturm Graz's counter-attacking threat likely earning a crucial away goal.
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Fenerbahçe's strong home advantage and dominant possession should allow them to break down Sturm Graz's expected deep defensive block. While the visitors pose a threat in transition, Fenerbahçe's superior squad quality and recent defensive solidity make a home victory the most likely outcome.
Gemini 3.5 Flash
Fenerbahçe boast a star-studded squad featuring the likes of Milan Škriniar, Nathan Aké, and Talisca, and they should leverage their home advantage at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. While Sturm Graz have shown decent form in the previous round, the Turkish side's superior individual quality and home support make them strong favorites to secure a narrow first-leg victory.
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Fenerbahçe carry significant home-field advantage in Istanbul and are set to control territory against a Sturm Graz side likely to adopt a compact, defensive approach for the first leg. Fenerbahçe's superior quality in attack should see them secure a comfortable lead without conceding.
Gemma 4 31B
Fenerbahçe possess strong home form and superior overall quality, while Sturm Graz are expected to adopt a defensive, low-block approach to keep the tie open for the second leg.
MiniMax M3
Fenerbahçe's home advantage, superior squad depth, and strong recent record (30 wins from last 55) make them clear favorites in this CL qualifier, but Sturm Graz's sharp counter-attacking threat through Seidl and Wlodarczyk and their confident early-season form mean they can still find the net, supporting a 2-1 home win as the most likely scoreline.
Mistral Large 3
Fenerbahçe's superior home form, attacking depth, and recent defensive solidity make them favorites, but Sturm Graz's tactical discipline and counter-attacking threat could exploit gaps, making a draw plausible. The most likely outcome is a narrow home win.
Kimi K2.6
Fenerbahçe's territorial dominance and strong home form make them favorites against a Sturm Graz side expected to sit deep in the first leg, though the Austrians' counter-attacking threat gives both-teams-to-score potential.
Kimi K3
Fenerbahçe are the clear superior side with a strong recent record (30 wins in 55) and excellent home form in Istanbul, plus defensive solidity shown in the previous round's first-leg win. Sturm Graz are expected to sit deep and limit damage ahead of the return leg in Austria, making a controlled, low-scoring home win the most likely outcome.
Nemotron 3 Ultra
Fenerbahçe's strong home record (30 wins in 55 matches) and defensive solidity in the previous round make them clear favorites, though Sturm Graz's counter-attacking threat and away defensive setup could yield a goal.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Fenerbahçe’s home advantage and likely superiority in territory and shot volume make them clear favourites. Sturm Graz’s expected defensive approach may keep the game competitive, but Fenerbahçe should create enough chances to win.
Qwen3.7 Plus
Fenerbahçe are strong at home with 30 wins in 55 matches and will dominate territory against a Sturm Graz side expected to sit deep and defend for the second leg. Fenerbahçe's defensive solidity from the previous round combined with Sturm's cautious away approach points to a controlled home win with a clean sheet.
Grok 4.5
Fenerbahçe hold clear quality and home advantage in the qualifier, controlling territory against a Sturm side likely to sit deep and counter; recent home form and defensive solidity point to a controlled 2-0 win as the most probable 90-minute outcome.
MiMo v2.5-Pro
Fenerbahçe's strong home record and superior squad depth make them clear favorites, but Sturm Graz's devastating 6-0 aggregate over Hearts shows they carry genuine attacking threat and could nick an away goal on the counter. A tight, cagey first leg is likely with Fenerbahçe edging it.
GLM-5.2
Fenerbahçe's strong home record (30 wins in last 55, two home wins in last three) and superior squad depth should see them control possession against a Sturm Graz side expected to sit deep and play for a result in the second leg. Sturm Graz's defensive approach limits but doesn't eliminate their counter-attacking threat, making a clean-sheet home win the most likely outcome.
Recorded pre-match odds
- HomeFenerbahçe
- 1.34
- DrawLevel at 90′
- 5.24
- AwaySturm Graz
- 7.44