Fenerbahçe
Lyon| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H47%D28%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H47%D27%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D28%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H46%D26%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Exact |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H51%D26%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H44%D29%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H40%D27%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H44%D27%A29% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Fenerbahçe are strong at home in Champions League qualifiers (unbeaten in six, two clean sheets this season) with Talisca in form, though Lyon are dangerous in transition and Fener miss Lukaku, Amrabat and Soyuncu, suggesting a narrow home win in a tight first leg.
Fenerbahçe's home advantage in a hostile Kadıköy atmosphere and their strong recent home defensive record give them the edge in the first leg, even with Lukaku, Amrabat and Soyuncu doubtful. Lyon carry genuine threat on the counter, so a narrow home win with both scoring looks likeliest, with a draw a strong secondary outcome.
Fenerbahçe's strong home attack and Istanbul atmosphere make them narrow favourites, but Lyon's transition threat and Fenerbahçe's key absences keep a draw or away goal very plausible.
Fenerbahçe's formidable home atmosphere in Istanbul gives them a slight edge in this first leg, despite missing key players like Lukaku and Amrabat. Lyon possesses the attacking quality to exploit spaces on the counter, making a narrow home win with goals at both ends the most likely outcome.
Fenerbahçe boast strong home momentum in European qualifiers, having won both home qualifying legs this season without conceding. Lyon remains a dangerous opponent in transition, but Fenerbahçe's formidable home environment gives them the edge to take a narrow first-leg advantage.
Fenerbahçe will look to leverage their formidable home advantage in Istanbul to establish a first-leg lead, though Lyon's attacking threat on the counter should make it a closely contested affair.
Fenerbahçe possesses a strong home advantage and a high-quality attacking lineup featuring Greenwood and Talisca, though significant absences like Lukaku and Amrabat slightly diminish their dominance. Lyon remains dangerous on the counter, but the home atmosphere in Istanbul typically tips the balance in favor of the Turkish side.
Fenerbahce's strong Istanbul home advantage and attacking options (Asensio, Greenwood, Talisca) give them a narrow edge in the first leg despite missing Lukaku, Amrabat and Soyuncu, while Lyon's transition threat under Fonseca makes a high-scoring BTTS game likely.
First-leg play-off dynamics favor caution from both sides. Fenerbahçe have home advantage and a strong Istanbul atmosphere, but the absence of key striker Lukaku and defender Soyuncu weakens them significantly. Lyon, under Fonseca, possess enough quality on the counter (with a 4-2-3-1 mirroring Fenerbahçe) to snatch a goal, while a cagey 1-1 feels the most plausible scoreline that keeps the tie genuinely open heading to France.
Fenerbahçe are missing key players, including Romelu Lukaku, but their home advantage, attacking intent, and recent defensive solidity at home make them slight favorites. Lyon are dangerous in transition but may struggle to contain Fenerbahçe’s attacking depth, though a draw is a realistic outcome given the absences.
Fenerbahçe’s dominant home record and firepower in attack make them the likelier winners despite missing Lukaku and Soyuncu, while Lyon’s threat on the transition points to both sides scoring in an entertaining first leg.
Fenerbahçe's formidable home atmosphere and strong squad (Škriniar, Kanté, Guendouzi, Asensio, Greenwood, Talisca) make them favourites in Istanbul despite missing Lukaku, Amrabat and Söyüncü, and they've kept clean sheets in their last three UCL home games. Lyon's transition threat under Fonseca should produce a goal and keeps the draw and away win live in a tight first-leg play-off.
Fenerbahçe's strong home record in Champions League qualifiers (three straight clean sheets) and attacking depth despite missing Amrabat, Söyüncü and Lukaku favor the hosts, but Lyon's transition threat and the cautious nature of a first-leg playoff keep the draw and away win very live.
Fenerbahçe’s home advantage and strong attacking options give them a narrow edge, although the expected absences of Lukaku, Amrabat and Söyüncü reduce confidence. Lyon’s transition threat should keep the first leg competitive and makes a draw a significant possibility.
Fenerbahçe's formidable home atmosphere in Istanbul and strong attacking lineup (Greenwood, Talisca, Asensio, Aktürkoğlu) give them an edge despite missing Lukaku, while their recent UCL home clean-sheet record suggests defensive solidity. However, Lyon's threat in transition and Fenerbahçe's tendency to commit forward make both teams likely to score in an open first-leg encounter.
Fenerbahçe hold a clear home edge in Istanbul with a strong CL qualifying record (clean sheets in recent home ties) and Talisca in red-hot form, outweighing absences like Lukaku and Amrabat; Lyon are dangerous on the counter after overturning Sparta but face a hostile atmosphere in a tight first-leg playoff.
Fenerbahçe boast an unbeaten six-game home CL qualifying record with clean sheets in their last three, and despite key absences (Lukaku, Amrabat, Soyuncu, Ederson), their formidable starting XI featuring Kanté, Škriniar, Asensio, Greenwood and in-form Talisca gives them the edge; Lyon, missing star man Sulc and facing a congested schedule, are capable of scoring through Openda on the counter but unlikely to leave Istanbul level.
Fenerbahçe enjoy a formidable home European record (three straight clean sheets at home in the Champions League) and field a strong lineup despite absences to Lukaku, Amrabat and Soyuncu, while Lyon's threat in transition should still earn them a goal in an open first leg.
FenerbahçeLyon