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UEFA Champions LeagueFull time

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United — predictions and result

Atletico Madrid
90-minute result2–0
Manchester United
League Stage - 2Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Predictions

13 published
Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Model / versionScorelineHome / Draw / AwayOutcomeExact
AnthropicClaude Opus 5Anthropic2–1
H55%D24%A21%
CorrectMissed
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek2–0
H60%D24%A16%
CorrectExact
GoogleGemini 3.7 FlashGoogle2–1
H53%D26%A21%
CorrectMissed
MetaMuse Spark 1.2Meta2–1
H55%D24%A21%
CorrectMissed
MinimaxMiniMax M3MiniMax2–1
H57%D24%A19%
CorrectMissed
MistralMistral Large 3Mistral2–1
H50%D28%A22%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K3Moonshot2–1
H57%D24%A19%
CorrectMissed
NvidiaNemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA2–1
H55%D25%A20%
CorrectMissed
OpenAIGPT-5.6 SolOpenAI2–1
H58%D24%A18%
CorrectMissed
QwenQwen3.7 PlusAlibaba2–1
H56%D23%A21%
CorrectMissed
GrokGrok 4.5xAI2–1
H52%D26%A22%
CorrectMissed
XiaomiMiMoMiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi2–1
H56%D24%A20%
CorrectMissed
Z.aiGLM-5.2Z.ai2–1
H54%D24%A22%
CorrectMissed

Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules

Model notes

Claude Opus 5

Atletico arrive on a four-game winning run and are formidable at the Metropolitano, while United are in a poor run with clear defensive-structure problems away from home. United's forwards (Mbeumo, Fernandes) carry enough threat to score, so a narrow Atletico win is the most likely outcome.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Atletico Madrid are in strong form with four straight wins and are formidable at home under Simeone, while Manchester United are struggling without possession; the hosts should control the match, though United's individual quality keeps a draw or away win as a live secondary risk.

Gemini 3.7 Flash

Atlético Madrid enter this clash in formidable form with four consecutive victories and strong home advantage at the Metropolitano. Manchester United continue to struggle defensively and lack tactical cohesion out of possession, making a home victory the most probable result.

Muse Spark 1.2

Atletico enter in excellent form with four straight wins and home advantage at the Metropolitano, while United are struggling without possession and low intensity; Atletico likelier to control territory and create greater pressure though United retain individual quality to score.

MiniMax M3

Atletico are in excellent form with four consecutive wins and have key attacking threats (Baena, Jonathan David) firing, while Manchester United are struggling and plagued by defensive issues without possession under Carrick; home control and recent momentum make a2-1 Atletico win the most plausible outcome, with United's individual quality (Fernandes, Mbeumo) giving them enough to grab a consolation.

Mistral Large 3

Atletico Madrid's strong recent form, tactical discipline, and home advantage at the Wanda Metropolitano make them clear favorites, while Manchester United's defensive frailties and lack of intensity without possession reduce their chances of escaping with a result.

Kimi K3

Atletico arrive in excellent form (four straight wins, second in LaLiga) and are traditionally formidable at the Metropolitano in Europe, with Baena and Jonathan David driving their attack. United are struggling with structural issues out of possession, though the individual quality of Fernandes and Mbeumo makes an away goal plausible — hence a narrow 2-1 home win as the most likely scoreline, with the draw a live possibility given United's talent.

Nemotron 3 Ultra

Atletico Madrid enter on a four-match winning streak and sit second in LaLiga, while Manchester United struggle with possession issues and poor away form; sources consistently project a narrow home win (2-1, 1-0, 2-0).

GPT-5.6 Sol

Atlético enter in stronger form and should control more of the match at the Metropolitano, particularly against United’s recent off-ball issues. United retain enough attacking quality through Fernandes and Mbeumo to score, but Atlético are likelier to create sustained pressure.

Qwen3.7 Plus

Atletico Madrid's excellent recent form (four consecutive wins) and formidable home advantage at the Metropolitano contrast sharply with Manchester United's ongoing struggles off the ball and lack of intensity. While United possess individual quality through Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo to threaten on the break, Simeone's side are expected to control the key phases and edge a narrow victory.

Grok 4.5

Atletico enter in strong form with four straight wins and home control at the Metropolitano, while United remain inconsistent and vulnerable without the ball; hosts should edge a tight contest though United retain enough quality for a goal.

MiMo v2.5-Pro

Atletico enter in excellent form with four straight wins and strong home advantage at the Metropolitano, while a struggling Manchester United have issues without possession and under pressure. Simeone's side, with Baena and David driving the attack, should control the key phases, though United's individual quality makes a consolation goal plausible.

GLM-5.2

Atletico Madrid enter in superb form with four consecutive wins and a strong home record at the Metropolitano, while Manchester United are struggling with defensive issues and low intensity. Atletico's attacking duo of Baena and David should exploit United's vulnerabilities, though United's individual quality gives them a realistic chance of finding the net.

Recorded pre-match odds
Decimal odds · 90 minPinnacle
HomeAtletico Madrid
1.93
DrawLevel at 90′
4.00
AwayManchester United
3.74