Ararat-Armenia
Celje| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–1 | H34%D30%A36% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H26%D26%A48% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D28%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D28%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–0 | H46%D28%A26% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H40%D27%A33% | Correct | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H48%D28%A24% | Correct | Exact |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H29%D30%A41% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H36%D32%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–0 | H48%D28%A24% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H36%D30%A34% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Celje are the seeded, higher-coefficient side with strong recent European pedigree (Conference League quarter-finalists), but as this is a tight first leg away from home against a well-organized Ararat-Armenia who beat Riga and Shamrock Rovers, a close, low-scoring match is likely.
Celje bring a clearly higher pedigree and coefficient than Ararat-Armenia, with recent deep European runs and a technically superior, possession-based side, so they should edge the first leg even away from home. Ararat-Armenia's home advantage in Yerevan and the cagey nature of first legs keep the draw a live outcome.
Ararat-Armenia have won both home legs 2-0 in this qualifying campaign, while Celje have drawn all four competitive matches this season (including two UCL draws vs Egnatia). Ararat's home crowd and historical 1-0 win in the clubs' only prior meeting give the hosts the edge, but Celje's attacking output (five goals over two legs vs Egnatia) and Ararat's defensive leaks suggest both teams score.
Ararat-Armenia have been impeccable at home in this qualifying campaign, securing consecutive 2-0 victories over Riga and Shamrock Rovers. Meanwhile, Celje have struggled defensively, drawing all three of their competitive matches this season while conceding seven goals, giving the Armenian side a distinct edge in this first leg.
Ararat-Armenia has been formidable at home in this qualifying campaign, winning both of their previous home legs 2-0. Meanwhile, Celje has struggled to win in normal time, drawing both legs of their previous round, making a home victory the most likely outcome.
Ararat-Armenia have relied heavily on home advantage in Champions League qualifying, winning both prior home legs. With Celje winless in regulation time across European and domestic matches this season, the hosts are favoured to establish a tight first-leg lead.
Both teams are relatively evenly matched in European qualifying contexts, with Ararat-Armenia holding a slight home advantage but Celje possessing a structured defensive setup. A draw is a highly probable outcome given the cautious nature of the first leg in a qualifying round.
This is the second leg with the aggregate 0-0, so any draw forces extra time. Ararat-Armenia has home advantage and has been solid at home in this qualifying campaign, but Celje is a stronger side on paper (3-time Slovenian champion, including 2025/26) and showed resilience by coming through a penalty shootout against Egnatia in the previous round. Both teams are likely to play cautiously, making a low-scoring draw the most probable outcome with the home side holding a slight edge.
Ararat-Armenia plays in a more attacking formation (1-3-4-3) but faces a disciplined Celje side (1-4-4-2) with a solid defensive structure. Both teams lack standout form in this early stage of the competition, making a draw the most balanced outcome, though Ararat-Armenia's home advantage slightly tilts the probabilities in their favor.
Ararat-Armenia have kept clean sheets in both home qualifying legs and carry momentum as Armenian league leaders, while Celje have drawn every Champions League qualifier in normal time and sit mid-table domestically, pointing to a narrow home win in the first leg.
Ararat-Armenia have been formidable at home in this qualifying run, winning both home legs 2-0 (vs Riga and Shamrock Rovers), and Yerevan in early August is a tough trip for a Celje side that looked defensively shaky against Egnatia (3-3 away, 2-2 at home, advancing only on penalties). Celje carry the stronger pedigree and attacking quality (Seslar, Kvesic, Koutris) to make an away win live, but Ararat's home pattern and Celje's leaky defense point to a narrow home win with both teams scoring.
Ararat-Armenia have won both home legs 2-0 in this qualifying campaign and hold a historical 1-0 win over Celje from 2020, but their defensive frailties (conceding in every away leg and a 4-3 domestic opener) suggest Celje can score. Celje have yet to win in 90 minutes this qualifying round (two draws vs Egnatia, two domestic draws), making a narrow home win the most likely outcome.
Celje appear to have the stronger and more settled defensive structure, but Ararat-Armenia's home advantage should keep this first leg close. A cautious, low-scoring draw is the likeliest exact scoreline, with Celje more likely to win if the match is decisive.
Ararat-Armenia have been dominant at home in this campaign (2-0 wins in both prior home legs) and possess attacking threats through Serobyan, Lima, and Shaghoyan, but their defense has been leaky (conceding 5 goals in two away legs and 3 domestically). Celje are the stronger side on paper — Slovenian champions with Conference League quarter-final pedigree and Leonardo Koutris in defense — yet their recent form is entirely draws (3-3, 2-2 vs Egnatia; 1-1 vs Maribor), suggesting a tight, cagey first leg where neither side can fully impose themselves.
Ararat-Armenia have been dominant at home in CL qualifying (2-0 wins vs Riga and Shamrock) while Celje have failed to win in 90 minutes this campaign (two high-scoring draws vs Egnatia, decided on pens) and sit mid-table domestically with multiple draws. Home edge and prior H2H favour a narrow Ararat win.
Ararat-Armenia have been dominant at home in European qualifying (2-0 vs both Riga and Shamrock Rovers) and carry a significant home advantage, but Celje's deeper European pedigree and stronger league counterbalance; both sides are defensively porous, making a competitive, low-scoring draw the most likely single outcome.
Ararat-Armenia has been formidable at home with two 2-0 wins in qualifying, but Celje represents a step up in quality from Slovenia's stronger league and has shown they can score freely despite defensive frailty (3-3 and 2-2 vs Egnatia). Celje's heavy drawing tendency and Ararat's home strength point to a tight first leg, with a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline.
Ararat-ArmeniaCelje