Lecce
Monza| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H41%D30%A29% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H34%D35%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H40%D32%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H35%D28%A37% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H37%D27%A36% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H38%D31%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H37%D31%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H34%D28%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H39%D31%A30% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Two lower-half sides with modest attacking output meet early in the season, with Lecce's home advantage at the Via del Mare the main separator but blunted by injury doubts to Geubbels and a lack of a reliable finisher. Monza have looked organised and dangerous on the break through Varela, so a tight, low-scoring game with a high draw chance is the fair read.
Lecce have struggled for goals since the opening day and lost their last two league games without scoring, while Monza are competitive but carry key attacking absences; recent Serie A head-to-head meetings have been draw-heavy, making a low-scoring stalemate the most likely outcome.
Lecce hold home advantage at the Via del Mare, but both sides match up evenly in overall quality and low-scoring tendencies, making a tightly contested draw the most probable outcome.
Evenly matched relegation battle at Via del Mare where Lecce's 4-3-3 is blunted by wasteful finishing (Stulic 0 goals from 8 shots) and Geubbels ankle doubt, while Monza's 3-4-2-1 brings in-form finisher Varela (4 goals in 3). H2H is draw-heavy (3 of 5) and Lecce's suboptimal form vs Monza's advantageous position points to a tight, low-scoring stalemate with a slight away edge.
Historically three of the last five Serie A meetings between these sides ended in draws, and both Lecce (at home in a 4-3-3 under Di Francesco) and Monza (with in-form striker Varela) appear evenly matched mid-table/lower-half sides. Lecce's home record against bottom-half opponents is strong, but Stulic's profligacy (8 shots, 0 goals) and Monza's sharper finishing keep the away win close to the home win probability, making 1-1 the most plausible single scoreline.
Lecce start the season at home with a solid 4-3-3 system but face a disciplined Monza side likely to prioritize defensive organization. Key absences (e.g., Geubbels for Lecce) and recent form indicators (e.g., Nikola Stulic's poor conversion rate) suggest a tightly contested match, with the draw being a credible outcome.
Lecce's home edge at the Via del Mare is offset by Monza's stronger early-season momentum, with Gustavo Varela in sharp scoring form (4 goals in 3), while Lecce's attack is misfiring (Stulic goalless despite volume) and Geubbels is an injury doubt. Recent Serie A meetings between these sides have been draw-heavy, so a tight, low-margin contest is expected.
Monza's Gustavo Varela is in sharp early form (4 goals in 3 games) while Lecce miss summer signing Willem Geubbels (ankle); the fixture has a strong draw history (3/5 previous Serie A meetings) but the away side's attacking edge tips the balance.
Lecce’s home advantage gives them a narrow edge, but these evenly matched sides have a draw-heavy top-flight history. Monza’s in-form Gustavo Varela and Lecce’s uncertain finishing make a low-scoring stalemate plausible.
Lecce's home advantage is balanced by Monza's in-form attacker Gustavo Varela (4 goals in 3 appearances) and Lecce's own profligacy in front of goal (Stulic with 8 shots but no goals). Three of the last five H2H meetings ended in draws, and both sides appear evenly matched as lower-table Serie A outfits, making a low-scoring draw the most probable single scoreline.
Early-season Serie A clash with both sides level on points and limited differentiating form; Lecce's home edge at Via del Mare is offset by Monza's sharper finishing (Varela) and Geubbels' doubt, making a low-scoring draw the single most probable 90-minute outcome.
Monza appear slightly favored based on Gustavo Varela's exceptional early-season form (4 goals in 3 appearances) and the fact that Lecce's star signing Willem Geubbels is a doubt with an ankle issue; however, Lecce's home advantage at Via del Mare and the historically high draw rate between these sides (three draws in five Serie A meetings) keeps the contest tightly contested with a draw the most likely single outcome.
Both teams are struggling early — Lecce have 3 points from 3 with only 2 goals scored, while newly-promoted Monza have 1 point and have conceded 8 in 3 games. Lecce's home advantage and marginally better form give them a slight edge, but their poor attacking output and Monza's ability to score (4 goals, including Varela's 2) make a tight, low-scoring draw a strong possibility.
LecceMonza