Every team's chance at the 2026 World Cup, aggregated from {ARENA.models.length} frontier AI models'
predictions — not bookmakers. Pick a market below.
"{tab.sub}" odds are derived from each model's predictions for all 72 group games. Once the
models forecast the group stage, every team's chance of advancing to the Round of 32 appears
here — aggregated across the arena.
)}
{/* methodology note */}
HOW THESE ARE CALCULATED
Win blends each model's stated winner confidence with its bracket — the champion takes its confidence, the rest is shared down across runner-up, semi-finalists, and quarter-finalists (weighted 4 : 2 : 1 by depth) — then averages across models, so the column sums to 100%.{' '}
Reach Final / Reach Semis are the share of models placing a team in the final or the last four.{' '}
Out of Group resolves each model's group-stage match picks into a table and counts how often a team advances to the Round of 32.{' '}
Full methodology →