Türkiye
Italy| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 0–1 | H26%D25%A49% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 0–1 | H25%D28%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 0–1 | H26%D27%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 0–1 | H28%D30%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H30%D35%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 0–1 | H22%D27%A51% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 0–1 | H22%D29%A49% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 0–1 | H24%D28%A48% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 0–1 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 0–1 | H22%D26%A52% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Italy travel with the stronger, more settled squad and better defensive structure, while Türkiye are badly weakened by the absences of Calhanoglu, Kenan Yildiz and suspended keeper Cakir. Home advantage in Bursa and Italy's chronic lack of a clinical finisher keep this low-scoring and tight, so a narrow Azzurri win or a draw are both very live.
Italy's deeper squad and Türkiye's key absences — Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız and first-choice goalkeeper Çakır — tilt a tight match toward the visitors, with a low-scoring single-goal Italy win the most likely outcome.
Türkiye are depleted by the absence of key creative anchors Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız, alongside suspended goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır. Italy's superior structural discipline and defensive solidity should allow them to edge a tight contest away from home.
Italy are narrow favourites even away as Türkiye miss suspended goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir and key creators Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz, leaving a blunt attack that failed to score in 3 of last 6; Italy's settled defence with Donnarumma and Calafiori/Di Lorenzo points to a low-scoring 0-1 type win.
Italy are favored despite playing away because Türkiye are missing several key figures — suspended goalkeeper Cakir plus creative hubs Calhanoglu and Yildiz — and both sides have shown recent scoring struggles, with the previews pointing to a tight, low-scoring contest decided by a single goal.
Both teams are evenly matched, with Italy possessing slightly superior defensive organization but Türkiye playing at home with key absences for Italy (e.g., injuries/suspensions). The draw is the most likely outcome, reflecting their recent form and tactical setups.
Türkiye are badly depleted — goalkeeper Çakır is suspended after his red card against France, and both key creative outlets Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız are unavailable — while Italy field a settled defense in front of Donnarumma with in-form midfield options like Frattesi. Italy's superior depth and Türkiye's blunted attack point to a tight, low-scoring away win, though the Bursa crowd keeps a home result or draw plausible.
Turkey looked more cohesive under Montella against France but miss Calhanoglu, Yildiz and starting GK Cakir; Italy were disjointed in Mancini's return vs Belgium and lack Dimarco, Cristante, Locatelli. Both desperate for points after opening losses suggests a tight, low-scoring affair with home advantage offset by Turkey's absences.
Italy have the stronger and deeper squad, while Türkiye are weakened by the absences of Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız and suspended goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır. Home advantage keeps the draw credible, but a low-scoring Italy win is the likeliest outcome.
Türkiye are significantly weakened by the absences of captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu, attacking talent Kenan Yıldız, and first-choice goalkeeper Ugurcan Çakır, while Italy field a strong defensive unit anchored by Donnarumma. Italy's defensive solidity and Türkiye's struggles to score (failed in 3 of last 6) point to a tight, low-scoring away win.
Italy hold the edge in quality and defensive solidity despite Türkiye's home advantage, with key Turkish absences (Calhanoglu, Yildiz, first-choice GK) tilting a tight Nations League opener toward a narrow Azzurri win.
Italy have a settled, experienced backline anchored by Donnarumma and in-form Frattesi, while Türkiye are severely weakened by the suspensions/absences of goalkeeper Cakir, Calhanoglu, and Yildiz — arguably their three most important players. The research consensus points to a tight, low-scoring Italy win, but Türkiye's home support in Bursa keeps the draw probability honest.
Türkiye are significantly weakened by the suspensions of goalkeeper Çakır and key players Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız, while Italy arrive with a strong defensive core (Donnarumma, Calafiori, Di Lorenzo) and in-form midfield options like Frattesi. Turkey's recent form shows scoring struggles (blanked in 3 of last 6), making a narrow Italy win the most likely outcome.
TürkiyeItaly