Italy
Belgium| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H40%D28%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H38%D29%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D28%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–0 | H43%D26%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H32%D30%A38% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H38%D32%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H44%D26%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–0 | H45%D30%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H42%D30%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–0 | H39%D28%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H42%D30%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–0 | H43%D29%A28% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Two closely matched sides opening a new cycle: Belgium arrive in good long-term form after a World Cup quarter-final run, while Italy's edge is home advantage and a solid recent home record (four clean-sheet wins in five). With both teams rotating and testing new faces, a tight, low-scoring game with a high draw chance is the fairest read.
Italy's home edge and strong recent head-to-head record give them a slight advantage, but both sides are starting new coaching eras with key absences, so a tight low-scoring game is likely.
Italy's strong home record and cohesive midfield give them the advantage, though Belgium's offensive firepower should keep this contest competitive throughout.
Italy have won four of their last five at home without conceding, giving a transitional squad with nine new faces a home edge, while Belgium arrive after an 18-game unbeaten run ended by Spain and recent open games where both teams scored.
Belgium have home advantage at the King Baudouin Stadium and a settled, experienced core (De Bruyne, Tielemans, Lukaku), while Italy are in transition with nine new faces in the squad under a new setup; however, Italy's recent form (beating Greece away, four clean sheets in last five home matches) and Belgium's tendency for both teams to score and for early concessions suggest a tight, low-scoring contest most likely ending level.
Italy enter the match with strong home form, having won four of their last five home games without conceding, while Belgium show vulnerabilities despite their pedigree, particularly in midfield cohesion and recent defensive frailty. The draw is a genuine possibility given both teams' attacking and defensive strengths, as well as the tactical adjustments expected from both sides.
Italy's home form is formidable — four wins without conceding in their last five at home — and they've had the better of this fixture recently, but Belgium arrive with a battle-hardened core (De Bruyne, Tielemans, Lukaku) off a World Cup quarterfinal run and a strong both-teams-to-score trend, while Italy's rebuilt squad with nine new faces adds uncertainty. Home edge makes Italy slight favourites, with the draw a live possibility.
Italy have won four of their last five home games without conceding, while Belgium's last six matches saw both teams score in five; Spalletti's refreshed Azzurri side should edge a tight Nations League opener at the Stadio Olimpico.
Italy’s strong recent home defending and home advantage give them a slight edge, but a much-changed squad introduces uncertainty. Belgium’s long unbeaten run before losing to Spain and their experienced midfield make a tight draw a plausible scoreline.
Italy are strong at home, having won four of their last five home games without conceding, and open their Nations League campaign with the advantage of familiar surroundings despite integrating nine new squad faces. Belgium possess significant attacking quality through De Bruyne, Openda, and Lukaku, but are coming off a World Cup quarterfinal exit and a poorer recent run, making a narrow Italian victory the most likely outcome in a tightly contested opener.
Italy hold home advantage at the Olimpico and a strong recent H2H edge (4 wins in last 5), but both sides start new managerial eras after mixed summers—Italy missing the World Cup, Belgium exiting in the quarter-finals—so an open, transitional contest favors a draw as the single most likely 90-minute outcome.
Italy's strong home defensive record (four of last five home wins without conceding) and superior Nations League pedigree give them a meaningful edge at home. Belgium retain significant attacking threat through De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Openda — and their recent games tend to see both teams score — making a close contest with goals on both ends the most likely outcome.
Italy have won four of their last five home games without conceding and enter a new era with fresh squad faces, while Belgium remain a high-quality side coming off a World Cup quarterfinal exit to Spain. Italy's strong home defensive record gives them a slight edge in what should be a tight contest.
ItalyBelgium