Estonia
Luxembourg| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–0 | H41%D31%A28% | Correct | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H33%D36%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H36%D33%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–0 | H40%D28%A32% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H42%D30%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H37%D30%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–0 | H45%D30%A25% | Correct | Exact |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–0 | H37%D31%A32% | Correct | Exact |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–0 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H33%D35%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H37%D35%A28% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Estonia have been hard to break down in this campaign (1-1 at Iceland, 0-0 at Bulgaria) and now play at home, while Luxembourg's 2-1 win in Sofia was offset by a flat 0-3 home loss to Iceland. Both sides create little, so a tight, low-scoring game with a genuinely high draw chance is the expectation.
Estonia's defensive resilience and home advantage should largely cancel out Luxembourg's strong away form, while both sides have been low-scoring and Estonia have never lost this fixture, making a tight draw the most likely outcome.
Both sides are evenly matched at the League C level, with Estonia benefiting from home advantage while facing a compact Luxembourg side. Expect a tight, low-scoring encounter where a stalemate is the most probable outcome.
Estonia's home advantage in the Baltic and Luxembourg's recent defensive regression give the hosts a slight edge in a low-scoring League C matchup, but the sides are evenly matched so a draw is a strong alternative.
Two closely-matched League C sides meet with Estonia holding home advantage, which the previews highlight as a key factor; Estonia are described as in good shape and seeking to stay unbeaten, but Luxembourg's recent victory over Iceland suggests they have momentum, making a tight, low-scoring contest — and a draw — the most plausible single outcome.
Estonia enter the match with home advantage and recent confidence, but Luxembourg have shown resilience and defensive solidity in UEFA Nations League campaigns. A tight, low-scoring draw is the most balanced outcome.
Two defensively organised but goal-shy sides: Estonia are unbeaten in four with three clean sheets yet have scored more than once in none of their last six, while Luxembourg arrive off a 0-3 defeat to Iceland despite a strong recent away run and have never beaten Estonia in three meetings. Home resilience versus Luxembourg's away form points to a tight, low-scoring stalemate.
Estonia benefit from home advantage in the Baltic region and are described as in good shape seeking to remain unbeaten, while Luxembourg have reportedly regressed since their last meeting in Luxembourg City.
The sides appear closely matched, but Estonia's home advantage and Luxembourg's recent regression give the hosts a narrow edge. A low-scoring contest is likely, with the draw still a substantial possibility.
Estonia's home advantage and unbeaten run give them a slight edge against a Luxembourg side dealing with defensive vulnerabilities, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome in a tight contest.
Evenly matched League C sides with no NL games played yet; Estonia's home edge is offset by Luxembourg's slightly stronger recent competitive pedigree, making a low-scoring draw the most likely 90-minute outcome.
Estonia have drawn both Nations League matches so far and, despite poor home form historically, have improved in 2026 and are hard to beat; Luxembourg's strong away run is offset by their 0-3 home collapse to Iceland, pointing to a tight, evenly-matched contest likely to end level.
Estonia are unbeaten in this Nations League campaign with two draws and hold a historical edge (never lost to Luxembourg), while Luxembourg have regressed and were beaten 3-0 by Iceland last time out. However, Estonia's poor home record and Luxembourg's three-match away winning streak point toward a closely fought contest likely to end level.
EstoniaLuxembourg