Estonia
Iceland| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H25%D30%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H24%D31%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 0–1 | H22%D28%A50% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H28%D37%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H25%D37%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H25%D40%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 0–1 | H23%D30%A47% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H20%D35%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H28%D32%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H28%D35%A37% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H28%D32%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H27%D40%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H26%D33%A41% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Iceland are clearly the stronger side (FIFA ~74 vs ~127) and have 7 points from 3 games with 7 goals scored, but they have a historically poor Nations League away record and have never beaten Estonia in four of the last five meetings (all draws, including 1-1 in Reykjavik last month). Estonia are unbeaten at home in four with three straight clean sheets, though missing suspended captain Mets, so a tight, low-scoring game with real draw equity looks most likely.
Iceland are the stronger side and should control possession, but their six-match winless run, leaky defence and Estonia's home set-piece threat make a draw a serious outcome; the head-to-head record is also heavily draw-laden.
Iceland possess superior individual quality across their squad, but Estonia's compact defensive structure at home should keep this contest low-scoring and competitive.
H2H is extremely draw-heavy (4 draws in 5 meetings, three consecutive draws) and both sides are 1W-2D-2L in last 5 with low scoring; Iceland's six-match winless run without a clean sheet and Estonia's home counter/set-piece threat offsets Iceland's slight quality/possession edge, making 1-1 the single most likely 90-minute outcome.
H2H is heavily draw-skewed (4 of 5 meetings level), Estonia are unbeaten in this NL group on home soil, and Iceland enter on a 6-match winless run without a clean sheet despite just beating Luxembourg 3-0; the visitors' slight quality edge is offset by Estonia's disciplined low block and set-piece threat, making a low-scoring draw the modal outcome.
Historical head-to-head records show a strong tendency for draws (4 out of 6 meetings), and both teams' recent form (2 draws in their last 5 matches) suggests a tightly contested fixture. Iceland hold a slight edge in quality, but Estonia's home advantage and defensive approach balance the probabilities.
Iceland are the stronger side and demonstrated it with a 3-0 win over Luxembourg in this group, while Estonia's recent form (1W-2D-2L) mirrors Iceland's but with a weaker squad. However, this fixture is exceptionally draw-heavy — four draws in five all-time meetings and three consecutive draws — so the draw gets an elevated probability with Iceland only narrow favourites, most likely via a low-scoring away win.
Iceland hold a historical edge (1 win, 4 draws in 5 H2H) and impressed with a 3-0 win over Luxembourg, but are on a six-match winless run without a clean sheet; Estonia are unbeaten in the group (two draws) but have conceded 9 goals in their last five matches, making a narrow away win the most likely outcome with a high draw probability.
Iceland have the stronger squad and should control more possession, but their poor clean-sheet record and four draws in five meetings with Estonia make a tight stalemate a strong possibility.
The H2H record is extraordinary with four draws in five meetings, and both teams share near-identical recent form (1W-2D-2L). Iceland are slight favorites on quality and come off a 3-0 win over Luxembourg, but Estonia's compact counter-attacking setup at home and the historical tendency for tight, low-scoring draws between these sides make a stalemate highly probable.
H2H heavily favors draws (4 of 5 meetings) and both sides show near-identical recent form with low scoring; Iceland hold a slight quality edge as favorites but arrive winless in six and without a clean sheet, making a low-scoring stalemate the single most probable 90-minute outcome.
The H2H is dominated by draws (4 of 5 meetings) including a 1-1 just 10 days ago, and Estonia's strong home record and miserly UNL defence (1 goal conceded in 3 games) should offset Iceland's superior quality and recent scoring form, making another stalemate the single most likely outcome.
Iceland are the stronger footballing nation and slight favourites, but their six-match winless run and six consecutive games without a clean sheet, combined with Estonia's home advantage and a historical H2H heavily skewed toward draws (four draws in five meetings), make a tight, low-scoring affair the most likely outcome.
EstoniaIceland