Bulgaria
Luxembourg| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H35%D28%A37% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–0 | H45%D29%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–0 | H46%D32%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–0 | H46%D28%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H44%D30%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–0 | H41%D30%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–0 | H45%D30%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–0 | H40%D33%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–0 | H40%D32%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–0 | H48%D28%A24% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–0 | H50%D26%A24% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–0 | H43%D31%A26% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Bulgaria remain in deep decline after a winless World Cup qualifying campaign, with only a 2-2 at Moldova and a home friendly loss to Montenegro since, while Luxembourg have quietly rebuilt (wins over Malta home and away, 1-0 at Albania, narrow loss to Italy) and now field the stronger, more settled squad. Home advantage in Sofia roughly cancels out that edge, making this a tight, low-scoring game with a high draw chance.
Bulgaria's home advantage and strong head-to-head record against Luxembourg give them the edge, but both sides have struggled for goals, so a narrow, low-scoring home win is the most likely outcome.
Bulgaria hold home advantage and a strong historical record in this fixture, making a narrow, low-scoring victory the most probable outcome against a resilient Luxembourg side.
Bulgaria have dominant head-to-head history vs Luxembourg (13 wins in 16 before this) and home advantage, pointing to a slight edge in a tight, low-scoring League C affair, but limited top-level depth and Luxembourg's recent narrow results (0-1 vs Italy, 1-0 vs Albania) keep draw/away very live.
Bulgaria enjoys a strong historical record against Luxembourg (13 wins in 17 meetings) and has home advantage, while Luxembourg's recent form has been mixed (a loss to a young Italy side and a narrow win over Albania in friendlies). However, Bulgaria's thin squad—only two players in Europe's top five leagues—limits their upside, and Luxembourg's organized 5-3-2 system with experienced operators like Sinani and Thill keeps this a tight, low-scoring League C contest where a 1-0 home win is the most plausible single outcome.
Bulgaria holds a slight edge due to home advantage and recent form, but Luxembourg has shown resilience in competitive fixtures. A tight, low-scoring draw is highly plausible given both teams' defensive tendencies and limited attacking resources.
Both attacks were toothless in World Cup 2026 qualifying (Bulgaria scored 3 goals in 6 games, Luxembourg just 1) and the last three head-to-heads produced a single goal combined (0-0 in Plovdiv in Oct 2024, 1-0 Bulgaria away in Nov 2024), so a low-scoring grind with a very live draw is likely. Bulgaria's home advantage in Plovdiv and historical dominance of this fixture (13 wins in 17 meetings) give them a slight edge over a Luxembourg side whose recent wins came only against Malta and Albania, making a narrow 1-0 home win the most likely scoreline.
Bulgaria's home advantage, historical dominance (13 wins in 16 prior meetings), and recent form (3 wins in last 5) outweigh Luxembourg's modest friendly results; expect a tight, low-scoring game.
Bulgaria have the historical edge and modest home advantage, but Luxembourg’s recent competitiveness makes this likely to be tight. A low-scoring match with Bulgaria narrowly prevailing is the likeliest scenario.
Bulgaria holds a strong historical edge (14 wins in 17 H2H meetings) and home advantage, with three wins in their last five outings giving them a slight edge. However, Luxembourg's recent improvement—including wins over Italy and Albania—and Bulgaria's squad depth limitations (only two players in Europe's top five leagues) suggest a tight, low-scoring affair where a draw remains highly plausible.
Bulgaria hold a dominant H2H (unbeaten in 17 meetings, 14 wins) and home advantage in Plovdiv against a Luxembourg side that has improved but still ranks lower and struggled in recent WCQ. Both are limited League C sides coming off mixed friendlies, pointing to a tight low-scoring home win as the most likely 90-minute outcome.
Bulgaria have won 14 of 17 historical meetings with Luxembourg and hold home advantage, though their squad is modest with only two players from Europe's top-five leagues; Luxembourg have improved in recent years (beat Albania, pushed Italy close) making this a tight, low-scoring contest likely settled by a single goal.
Bulgaria's home advantage, historical dominance over Luxembourg (14 wins from 17 H2H meetings), and Luxembourg's failure to score in their last two Nations League encounters give Bulgaria a slight edge in what should be a tight, low-scoring match between two limited sides.
BulgariaLuxembourg