Belarus
San Marino| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–0 | H87%D10%A3% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–0 | H80%D13%A7% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–0 | H83%D13%A4% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–0 | H78%D16%A6% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–0 | H75%D17%A8% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 3–0 | H80%D15%A5% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–0 | H81%D13%A6% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–0 | H75%D20%A5% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–0 | H72%D20%A8% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–0 | H76%D15%A9% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–0 | H78%D16%A6% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–0 | H80%D14%A6% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–0 | H78%D15%A7% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Belarus are vastly superior in quality and are at a neutral 'home' venue needing a win after taking only one point from their opening two games, while San Marino remain the weakest side in League C. Belarus' recent games have been low-scoring, so a modest 2-0 type win is the most likely margin rather than a rout.
Belarus are a clear class above San Marino and should control the match, while San Marino regularly concede in both halves. Belarus's recent low-scoring UNL trend points to a comfortable but not runaway win.
Belarus hold a significant quality advantage over San Marino, and while their recent matches have typically been low-scoring affairs, they should control possession and comfortably secure a clean-sheet victory.
Belarus have taken just one point from two games but face the group's weakest side at their neutral venue in Hungary; San Marino have regressed since promotion and conceded in both halves in six of seven internationals, while Belarus's last nine Nations League games stayed under 2.5 goals, pointing to a controlled home win.
San Marino is one of UEFA's weakest sides and even a struggling Belarus — who drew 0-0 with Finland and lost 2-0 to Albania in this group — should win comfortably at their neutral Hungarian venue, though Belarus' last nine UNL matches all featured under 2.5 goals, capping the likely scoreline at 2-0.
Belarus are significantly stronger than San Marino in terms of squad depth, international experience, and recent form, even if their own performances have been underwhelming. San Marino’s defensive vulnerabilities and lack of attacking threat make a comfortable Belarus win the most likely outcome.
San Marino have been dismantled in this campaign (0-7 vs Finland, 0-3 vs Albania) and lost both prior meetings with Belarus 5-0 and 2-0; even at a neutral Budapest venue and despite Belarus scoring zero in their first two games, the gulf in quality makes a comfortable low-scoring Belarus win the clear modal outcome.
Belarus are significantly stronger than San Marino, who have regressed since promotion; Belarus' home advantage (even at a neutral venue) and San Marino's record of conceding in both halves in six of their last seven internationals point to a comfortable home win.
Belarus have a clear overall quality advantage, while San Marino are likely to defend deep and offer little attacking threat. Belarus's tendency toward low-scoring Nations League matches makes a narrow home win the likeliest outcome.
Belarus are heavy favorites at home against San Marino, who have regressed since promotion and concede in both halves in most recent matches. However, Belarus have been blunt in attack (0 goals in 2 games), so a comfortable but not overwhelming win is the most likely outcome.
Belarus are clear favourites at home against perennial minnows San Marino, who concede freely and rarely score; Belarus' recent UNL matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, pointing to a controlled 2-0 rather than a rout.
Belarus are vastly superior in quality (FIFA 96th vs lowest-ranked FIFA team) and beat San Marino 5-0 and 2-0 in their previous two meetings; San Marino have conceded 10 goals in two group matches (7-0 vs Finland, 3-0 vs Albania). Belarus' own UNL games trend under 2.5 goals and they failed to score in their first two group outings, so a controlled 2-0 rather than a rout is the most balanced single scoreline.
Belarus, despite a slow start (one point from two games), are vastly superior to a San Marino side that is the weakest in European football and has conceded in both halves in six of their last seven internationals. Belarus's UNL matches tend to be low-scoring, so a comfortable but not runaway 2-0 win is the most likely scoreline.
BelarusSan Marino