Azerbaijan
Lithuania| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H34%D30%A36% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–0 | H41%D31%A28% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–0 | H42%D31%A27% | Correct | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–0 | H39%D28%A33% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H38%D32%A30% | Correct | Exact |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–0 | H42%D29%A29% | Correct | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H30%D35%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–0 | H42%D32%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–0 | H38%D31%A31% | Correct | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H38%D32%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H28%D38%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–0 | H42%D31%A27% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Two closely matched League D sides who drew 1-1 in Kaunas a week ago; Azerbaijan have home advantage but are eight UNL games without a win and were held 0-0 by Liechtenstein, while Lithuania are marginally sharper yet also goal-shy, pointing to another tight, low-scoring game.
Azerbaijan's home advantage and Lithuania's weak attacking output (five goals in seven completed matches) favor a narrow home win, while the low expected goal count keeps the draw probability high. 1-0 is the likeliest scoreline.
Azerbaijan hold a slight edge with home advantage against a closely matched Lithuania side in what projects to be a low-scoring, tight League D encounter.
Azerbaijan have home advantage in Baku against a Lithuania side that tops League D Group 2 but averages just 0.71 goals scored and is inconsistent (W-L-D-L-W), while Azerbaijan have scored only 0.83 per game in last six; both show frequent one-sided clean sheets pointing to a tight, low-scoring contest narrowly favouring the hosts.
Both sides are closely matched in League D with limited goal-scoring output (Azerbaijan averaging ~0.83 goals/match across last 6, Lithuania's NL sample showing only 5 goals in 7 games). Azerbaijan's home advantage and experienced captain Mahmudov give them a slight edge, though Lithuania's recent 3-0 win over Andorra and inconsistent but capable form keep the draw and away win realistic in a likely low-scoring contest.
Both teams exhibit inconsistent form, with Azerbaijan showing slight defensive frailties and Lithuania struggling for consistency. The match is likely to be tightly contested, with a draw being a highly plausible outcome given their recent tendencies and the average goal metrics for their encounters.
A clash of two relegated, low-scoring League D sides: Azerbaijan average under a goal a game (5 in their last 6) but home advantage in Baku and a marginally stronger pedigree make them narrow favourites, while Lithuania's recent wins came only against minnows (Andorra, Liechtenstein) and they remain unconvincing on the road. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest where a single goal or a stalemate is most likely.
Azerbaijan have averaged only 0.83 goals in their last six matches, while Lithuania's seven-match record shows just five goals scored and nine conceded; the reverse fixture in September likely ended in a Lithuania win, but home advantage and both sides' low-scoring tendencies make a tight draw the most probable outcome.
Home advantage gives Azerbaijan a narrow edge between two closely matched, low-scoring sides. Azerbaijan’s limited recent goal output and Lithuania’s tendency toward matches where at least one team fails to score make a tight contest likely.
Both teams are offensively limited — Azerbaijan average just 0.83 goals per game recently and Lithuania have managed only 5 goals in 7 matches — pointing to a low-scoring, tightly contested League D clash. Home advantage gives Azerbaijan a marginal edge, but the quality gap is minimal, making a narrow 1-0 home win the most likely single outcome.
Both sides are evenly matched League D sides with recent low-scoring form; Azerbaijan drew 1-1 away in the reverse fixture and 0-0 at home to Liechtenstein while Lithuania sit top after beating Liechtenstein 2-0, making a tight 1-1 the most probable 90-minute outcome with home edge slight.
The reverse fixture seven days ago ended 1-1 with both goals in the opening 15 minutes, and Azerbaijan are winless in eight consecutive Nations League matches. Lithuania hold a historical unbeaten record in this fixture and sit top of the group with 4 points, but Azerbaijan's home advantage in Baku and the absence of meaningful competitive pressure (all League D teams are promoted) point toward another evenly contested draw.
Azerbaijan hold a slight home advantage in this League D clash between two low-scoring sides, with captain Mahmudov providing a proven edge in attack, while Lithuania's recent 3-0 friendly win over Andorra suggests modest improvement but insufficient quality to overcome home advantage.
AzerbaijanLithuania