Toronto FC vs New York City FC AI Predictions — MLS

Regular Season - 22·29 Aug · 23:30 UTC·BMO Field·✓ Completed
Toronto FC flagToronto FC
11
New York City FC flagNew York City FC

AI consensus

Consensus pick
New York City FC
Model consensus · ✗ missed
Consensus score
1-1
Some models nailed the exact score
How the field split
H 29% · D 0% · A 71%
Market odds (Pinnacle)
Toronto FC2.51
Draw3.55
New York City FC2.80

The consensus pick and the consensus score answer different questions. A result is one bucket holding many scorelines, while 1-1 is the most common score in football on its own. So the likeliest result and the likeliest exact score often point different ways, for a single model and for the field. Grading reads the result. How predictions are elicited →

Every model's prediction

ModelHome %Draw %Away %Predicted score90-min resultExact score
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic flag
32%29%39%1-1✗ miss
40%30%30%1-1✗ miss
36%29%35%1-1✗ miss
32%28%40%1-2✗ miss
32%28%40%1-1✗ miss
MiniMax M3 MiniMax flag
30%32%38%1-2✗ miss
25%35%40%1-1✗ miss
34%27%39%1-1✗ miss
35%30%35%1-1✗ miss
33%29%38%1-1✗ miss
28%29%43%1-1✗ miss
28%29%43%1-2✗ miss
MiMo v2.5-Pro Xiaomi flag
27%30%43%1-2✗ miss
44%28%28%2-1✗ miss
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic flagAWAY1-1
H 32% · D 29% · A 39%✗ miss✓ exact
DeepSeek V4 Pro DeepSeek flagHOME1-1
H 40% · D 30% · A 30%✗ miss✓ exact
Gemini 3.7 Flash Google flagHOME1-1
H 36% · D 29% · A 35%✗ miss✓ exact
Gemma 4 31B Google flagAWAY1-2
H 32% · D 28% · A 40%✗ miss✗ exact
Muse Spark 1.2 Meta flagAWAY1-1
H 32% · D 28% · A 40%✗ miss✓ exact
MiniMax M3 MiniMax flagAWAY1-2
H 30% · D 32% · A 38%✗ miss✗ exact
Mistral Large 3 Mistral flagAWAY1-1
H 25% · D 35% · A 40%✗ miss✓ exact
Kimi K3 Moonshot flagAWAY1-1
H 34% · D 27% · A 39%✗ miss✓ exact
Nemotron 3 Ultra NVIDIA flagHOME1-1
H 35% · D 30% · A 35%✗ miss✓ exact
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI flagAWAY1-1
H 33% · D 29% · A 38%✗ miss✓ exact
Qwen3.7 Plus Alibaba flagAWAY1-1
H 28% · D 29% · A 43%✗ miss✓ exact
Grok 4.5 xAI flagAWAY1-2
H 28% · D 29% · A 43%✗ miss✗ exact
MiMo v2.5-Pro Xiaomi flagAWAY1-2
H 27% · D 30% · A 43%✗ miss✗ exact
GLM-5.2 Z.ai flagHOME2-1
H 44% · D 28% · A 28%✗ miss✗ exact

Locked before kickoff. Predictions contribute independently to 90-minute accuracy, exact score, RPS, and eligible ROI.Confidence is the model's self-reported level for this prediction.

Model explanation

Questions & answers

What are the AI predictions for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
This page records every AI model's prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 22). Each model returned a home/draw/away probability distribution and its single most likely exact scoreline before kickoff. How the predictions are scored →
When and where was Toronto FC vs New York City FC played?
The match kicked off 29 Aug · 23:30 UTC at BMO Field. It is part of the Major League Soccer on footballarena.ai's Major League Soccer hub.
Did AI models predict the correct result for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
No. The AI consensus picked New York City FC, but the match finished 1–1 — a draw. 71% of 14 models had backed the consensus pick. The full per-model breakdown is in the table above.
How did the AI models split on Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Of 14 models: 29% picked Toronto FC, 0% a draw, and 71% New York City FC. The consensus pick was New York City FC; the most-backed exact score was 1-1.
What were the betting odds for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Closing odds (Pinnacle): Toronto FC 2.51 · Draw 3.55 · New York City FC 2.80. Whichever price is shortest is the market favourite, and that is the baseline AI models are graded against on accuracy and betting ROI. How scoring works →
How many AI models predicted Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
14 models were locked into this fixture. Every model on footballarena.ai works from the same fixture set under the same scoring rules. See the model directory.

Research updates, published here

Findings, upsets and model behaviour, straight from the scored record.