Toronto FC
New York City FC| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H32%D29%A39% | Missed | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Exact |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H36%D29%A35% | Missed | Exact |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–2 | H32%D28%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H32%D28%A40% | Missed | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–2 | H30%D32%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H25%D35%A40% | Missed | Exact |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H34%D27%A39% | Missed | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Missed | Exact |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H33%D29%A38% | Missed | Exact |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H28%D29%A43% | Missed | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D29%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H27%D30%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H44%D28%A28% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Toronto are a low-scoring, draw-heavy side (eight stalemates already) with a negative goal difference, while NYCFC are the marginally better team overall but modest on the road and only just above average in attack; home advantage narrows the gap. A tight, low-scoring game with a high draw likelihood is the fairest read.
Toronto FC are at home and in stronger recent form, while NYCFC are badly depleted by injuries and winless in five; however, NYCFC's seven-match unbeaten run against Toronto and Toronto's draw-heavy record keep this tight.
Toronto FC's strong propensity for draws and home advantage at BMO Field match up evenly against a well-structured NYCFC side led by top scorer Nicolás Fernández Mercau.
NYCFC holds a superior league position and a strong attacking threat in N. Fernández Mercau, while Toronto FC struggles with a negative goal difference and lower win rate. However, Toronto's recent 2-1 win over Inter Miami suggests a boost in confidence and home-field advantage.
NYCFC are the stronger side on goal difference (+7 vs -7) and attack (Fernandez Mercau 13 goals), but Toronto's league-high 8 draws in 19 and home advantage plus momentum from beating Inter Miami 2-1 make them hard to beat, pointing to a tight game where a 1-1 stalemate is the single most likely score even with NYCFC a slight favourite overall.
NYCFC is the clearly superior side on the table (7th, +7 GD, 1.72 GF/game vs Toronto 12th, -7 GD, 1.37 GF/game), but Toronto's home advantage combined with their league-leading draw tendency (8 of 19) keeps this close; expect a tight, low-scoring match where NYCFC's quality edges it late.
New York City FC holds a slight edge in form and attacking consistency, but Toronto FC's resilience and ability to exploit NYCFC's midfield vulnerabilities make this a tightly contested match. The draw is the most likely outcome, with NYCFC marginally favored to edge it if a winner emerges.
NYCFC are the stronger side on the season (better goal difference, games in hand, and joint-top scorer Fernández Mercau), but Toronto are at home, buoyed by Sargent's form after the win at Inter Miami, and extremely draw-prone (8 draws in 19). NYCFC's recent dip and tendency to leave midfield exposed to Toronto's direct vertical counters keep this tight, with the draw a live outcome.
Toronto FC's home advantage and recent 2-1 upset of Inter Miami suggest they can compete with NYCFC, whose attacking forays leave midfield gaps Toronto can exploit on the counter. Both sides have drawn frequently this season (Toronto 8, NYCFC 5), making a low-scoring draw the most probable single outcome.
NYCFC have the stronger defensive record and greater attacking threat, but Toronto’s home advantage and high draw rate keep this close. Toronto can exploit space when NYCFC push forward, making 1-1 the likeliest scoreline despite a slight away-win lean overall.
NYCFC holds a clear edge in quality (26 pts vs 20 pts, +7 GD vs -7 GD) and boasts a stout defense (24 GA in 18 games), but Toronto's league-high draw rate (8 in 19) and home advantage keep this tight. NYCFC's tendency to leave midfield exposed when pushing forward gives Toronto a viable counter-attacking outlet, making a narrow away win or low-scoring draw the most probable outcomes.
NYCFC sit higher with a superior attack and defense (GD +7 vs -7) and fewer draws, making them favorites even away; Toronto's high draw rate (8 in 19) and home resilience keep the draw competitive, but NYCFC's quality edge points to a narrow away win.
NYCFC are the stronger side (7th vs 12th, +7 vs -7 GD) with elite finishing from Fernández Mercau (13 goals), while Toronto's extraordinary draw rate (8 in 19) and recent upset of Inter Miami signal resilience but not enough quality to overcome a superior opponent at home.
Toronto is unbeaten in four and riding high after a historic win at Inter Miami, while NYCFC is winless in August with an injury-plagued squad finishing a three-game road trip. Both teams have scored in all 11 of Toronto's home games this season, suggesting a 2-1 home win fits the pattern.
Toronto FCNew York City FC