Toronto FC
Chicago Fire| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H20%D30%A50% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H33%D28%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–2 | H24%D28%A48% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H30%D35%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H30%D26%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H25%D30%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H28%D28%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H27%D27%A46% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H24%D27%A49% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H27%D28%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H26%D30%A44% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Chicago have been the far better side this season with a strong goal difference and a potent attack (Cuypers, Zinckernagel, plus Lewandowski), while Toronto are a low-scoring, draw-heavy team that concedes regularly. BMO Field and Toronto's recent unbeaten run keep the draw live, but the Fire should edge a fairly open game.
Chicago's Lewandowski-Cuypers duo and league-leading 10 clean sheets give them a clear quality edge, and they are unbeaten in eight straight H2H meetings including a 2-1 win in May. Toronto's 42% draw rate and five-game unbeaten run at BMO Field keep a stalemate very live, but Chicago's firepower should ultimately decide a tight contest.
Chicago Fire have enjoyed a strong campaign powered by the sharp finishing of Hugo Cuypers, giving them the edge over a Toronto FC side that has won just four matches all season.
Chicago is the stronger side on PPG and goal difference with Cuypers-led attack (+9 GD vs -7) and remains favorite even away, but Toronto's 8 draws in 19 and home advantage at BMO Field makes a low-scoring draw very live, with 1-2 the narrow edge over 1-1.
Chicago Fire are clearly superior in the standings (4th, 29pts, +9 GD vs Toronto 12th, 20pts, -7 GD) and possess genuine match-winners in Cuypers (13 goals), Zinckernagel (7 assists) and Lewandowski, while Toronto's leaky defense (33 GA in 19) should concede to Chicago's potent attack (~1.9 GF/game), though Toronto's reported recent resilience and MLS's high draw rate (24%) keep the draw well-represented.
Toronto FC are unbeaten in their last seven matches and face a Chicago Fire side that has struggled for consistency despite their playoff position. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, and the recent form suggests a tightly contested draw is the most likely outcome.
Chicago are the stronger side per game (29 pts in 17 vs Toronto's 20 in 19) with the league's co-top scorer Cuypers and a reported Lewandowski-led attack, making an away win the most likely outcome even at BMO Field. However, Toronto are extremely draw-prone (8 draws in 19) and both clubs arrive on five-game unbeaten runs, so the draw gets an honest elevated weight.
Chicago Fire sit 4th in the East with a +9 goal difference and 1.71 PPG, while Toronto FC are 12th at -7 GD and 1.05 PPG; Chicago's superior attack and defense outweigh Toronto's home advantage.
Chicago have shown the stronger attacking and defensive profile, led by Hugo Cuypers and Przemysław Frankowski, while Toronto have struggled to turn draws into wins. Home advantage should keep it competitive, but the Fire are more likely to edge it.
Chicago Fire sit 4th in the East with a +9 GD and the league's joint-top scorer in Cuypers (13 goals), making them clearly the stronger side even on the road at BMO Field. However, Toronto's extraordinarily high draw rate (8 in 19 games) and home advantage keep the draw probability elevated, with a narrow Chicago victory the single most likely outcome.
Chicago sit 4th with a strong +9 GD and prolific Cuypers, while 12th-placed Toronto have just 4 wins and leaky defense despite frequent draws; the visitors' superior quality should edge a tight away win.
Chicago Fire sit much higher in the East and are unbeaten in eight straight against Toronto, while both sides carry five-game unbeaten runs into this match; the Fire's added depth (Lewandowski, new signings) and superior defensive record should overcome a Toronto side that draws frequently but lacks the cutting edge to take all three points at home.
Chicago Fire sit 4th in the East with a +9 GD and a potent attack led by Cuypers (13 goals) and Zinckernagel (7 assists), making them clear favourites over a Toronto side with a -7 GD. However, Toronto's exceptionally high draw rate (8 in 19 matches) and home advantage at BMO Field, plus both sides reportedly being on unbeaten runs, elevate the draw probability significantly.
Toronto FCChicago Fire