Claude Opus 4.8
Charlotte are the stronger, higher-placed side and won the reverse fixture 3-1, but Toronto's home advantage and Charlotte's defensive absences (Kahlina, Corujo) keep this competitive; a narrow away edge with a real chance of a draw.
MLSFull time
Toronto FC vs Charlotte — predictions and result
Toronto FC90-minute result3–3
CharlotteRegular Season - 20BMO Field
Predictions
18 published| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–1 | H30%D28%A42% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H31%D29%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H31%D36%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–2 | H31%D28%A41% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H34%D28%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H33%D31%A36% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–2 | H32%D28%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H38%D27%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–2 | H25%D30%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H30%D35%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–1 | H25%D30%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H31%D28%A41% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H29%D27%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H28%D28%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H32%D28%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H25%D26%A49% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H27%D31%A42% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Model notes
Claude Opus 5
Charlotte are the stronger side on goal difference and points and have won recent meetings, but Toronto are hard to beat at BMO Field and have drawn eight of nineteen matches, with both teams modest in attack. A tight, low-scoring game with a high draw likelihood.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Toronto's draw-heavy record and recent defensive solidity at home meet a Charlotte side missing goalkeeper Kahlina and key defensive pieces, making a low-scoring stalemate the most likely outcome.
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Charlotte has been the stronger side this season, sitting 5th in the East, while Toronto FC is struggling in 12th place with a depleted squad due to multiple injuries. Despite Toronto's home advantage and coming off a recent win, Charlotte's superior attacking output makes them slight favorites.
Gemini 3.6 Flash
Toronto FC has struggled for consistency with eight draws and significant injury concerns, while 5th-placed Charlotte enters in superior overall form with strong attacking threat led by Pep Biel. Although home advantage keeps Toronto competitive at BMO Field, Charlotte's superior goal threat gives them the slight edge.
Gemini 3.7 Flash
Toronto FC have drawn eight of their 19 league fixtures this season, while Charlotte sit higher in the table but face a challenging trip to BMO Field.
Gemma 4 31B
Charlotte holds a superior league position (5th vs 12th) and a strong scoring record, having scored in 16 consecutive matches. Toronto is struggling with a significant injury list and inconsistent form under Robin Fraser.
Muse Spark 1.2
Toronto's consecutive Sean Johnson clean sheets and BMO Field momentum narrowly offset Charlotte's superior table position (5th vs 12th) and Pep Biel threat, with both sides depleted - Toronto missing 6 including Osorio/Long and relying on Coello, Charlotte without Kahlina, Westwood and Swiderski - pointing to a tight home edge rather than Charlotte's 3-1 last H2H.
MiniMax M3
Charlotte is the clearly stronger side (5th vs 12th, +4 GD vs -7) with a productive attack led by Pep Biel (10 goals) and just won 3-1 in their previous outing, while Toronto are bottom-half, severely depleted by injuries (Osorio, Long, Kerr, Stefanovic, Gomis all out) and draw-prone (8 of 19), giving a draw real weight; however Charlotte's quality and Toronto's leaky defence (33 goals conceded) make an away win the single most likely outcome, with 1-2 the most plausible scoreline.
Mistral Large 3
Toronto FC are improving under Fraser but remain inconsistent, while Charlotte FC are in strong form with a 16-game scoring streak and recent confidence. Key injuries for both sides and Charlotte's away form suggest a tightly contested draw is the most likely outcome.
Kimi K2.6
Charlotte's superior Eastern Conference standing and recent 3-1 head-to-head victory make them favorites, yet Toronto's strong home defensive form—highlighted by consecutive clean sheets—and lengthy injury lists for both clubs make a low-scoring 1-1 draw the most probable exact outcome.
Kimi K3
Charlotte (5th, 28 pts, +4 GD) has been the clearly stronger side than Toronto (12th, 20 pts, -7 GD) and won the last meeting 3-1, with Pep Biel (10 goals) leading their attack; Toronto's crowded training room (Osorio, Long, Gomis, Kerr, Stefanovic out) further tilts it, though TFC's draw-heavy record (8 in 19), recent consecutive clean sheets, and home field keep the draw probability high.
Nemotron 3 Ultra
Charlotte's stronger league form and attack (Pep Biel 10 goals) outweigh Toronto's home advantage and injury crisis, though Charlotte's defensive absences (Kahlina, Westwood, Corujo) keep the draw probability high.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Charlotte have been stronger at both ends this season, while Toronto's extensive injury list further weakens the hosts. Toronto's home advantage and high draw rate keep this competitive, but Charlotte are likelier to edge it.
Qwen3.7 Plus
Charlotte sits 8 points clear of Toronto in the Eastern Conference with a superior goal difference and won the last meeting 3-1, but Toronto's extreme draw tendency (8 draws in 19 games), home advantage at BMO Field, and Sean Johnson's consecutive clean sheets keep this competitive. Charlotte's injury concerns (Westwood, Tuiloma questionable, Kahlina out) slightly blunt their away edge, making a low-scoring draw a highly plausible outcome alongside a narrow Charlotte win.
Grok 4.5
Charlotte sit 5th with superior attack (Biel on 10 goals) and recent 3-1 win over Columbus plus earlier 3-1 H2H victory, while injury-hit Toronto snapped a long winless run but remain 12th with key absences (Mihailovic suspended, Osorio out). Home boost and MLS draw rate keep it competitive, yet Charlotte's quality and form make them slight favorites.
MiMo v2.5-Pro
Charlotte are the significantly stronger side (28 pts vs 20), have dominated this H2H with wins in all recent meetings including a 3-1 in May, and arrive in form with Biel starring and Saint-Maximin boosting their attack. Toronto's missing Mihailovic and Osorio, and their recent form (1 win since April) suggests they'll struggle against a deep, physical Charlotte squad, though home advantage keeps a draw in play.
GLM-5.2
Charlotte sit 8 points clear of Toronto with a far superior goal difference and won the last meeting 3-1, but Toronto's exceptionally high draw rate (8 in 19) and home advantage at BMO Field keep this competitive. Toronto's extensive injury list tips the edge to Charlotte despite their own absences.
Recorded pre-match odds
- HomeToronto FC
- 2.27
- DrawLevel at 90′
- 3.63
- AwayCharlotte
- 3.00