Toronto FC
CF Montreal| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H42%D29%A29% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H40%D31%A29% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H43%D29%A28% | Correct | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–0 | H43%D27%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H40%D31%A29% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H42%D30%A28% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H43%D31%A26% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Toronto have a modest home edge in the 401 Derby against a Montreal side that has lost 10 of 19 and whose marquee signing Sánchez is still goalless, but both teams are low-scoring and draw-prone (Toronto have eight already), so a tight, tense derby is likely. A 1-1 is the single most probable scoreline with the draw itself close to the home win in likelihood.
Toronto have home advantage and a must-win derby edge with key defenders returning, but their attack has been blunt lately while Montreal arrive off a 3-1 win over Cincinnati. The 401 Derby is typically tight, making a low-scoring draw the most likely scoreline.
Toronto FC hold home advantage at BMO Field in the 401 Derby against a struggling CF Montreal side that has conceded 36 goals and lost 10 of their 19 matches.
Toronto at BMO Field have a slight defensive edge and playoff motivation in the 401 Derby against a Montreal side with a blunt attack - Sanchez scoreless in eight - pointing to a narrow, low-scoring home win though Toronto's high draw rate keeps 1-1 very live.
Toronto's home advantage and desperation for playoff points are offset by their exceptionally high draw rate (8 of 19 games) and the 401 Derby's historical parity (20W-8D-19L all-time). Montreal's attacking threat is blunted by Alexis Sánchez's barren 8-game MLS spell, but the rivalry's unpredictability and Toronto's negative goal difference keep the away side very much in it. A low-scoring 1-1 reflects both teams' weak defenses (33 and 36 goals conceded) and modest attacking output.
Two struggling Eastern Conference sides meet in a rivalry that is historically tight (20-19-8 H2H). Toronto's season has been unusually draw-heavy (8 draws in 19) and Montreal's attack is blunted with Alexis Sánchez still without a goal or assist in eight appearances, so a low-scoring stalemate is very live — though Toronto's slightly better record and home-field edge at BMO Field make them modest favorites.
Toronto holds a slight home advantage and better underlying form (fewer losses, more draws) but both teams rank among the East's lowest scorers; the 401 Derby's historically even head-to-head record and Montreal's 10 defeats point to a tight, low-scoring contest where a draw is a strong possibility.
Toronto have the slightly stronger overall record and home advantage, but their high draw rate and both teams’ modest scoring output make a tight derby likely. Montreal’s poor defensive record gives Toronto an edge, though not enough to discount another stalemate.
Toronto FC holds a slight edge with home advantage in the 401 Derby and stronger motivation to chase a playoff spot, but their league-high draw rate (8 in 19 games) and CF Montreal's comparable attacking output (25 GF vs 26 GF) point to a tight, low-scoring affair. Montreal's ineffective Alexis Sánchez (0G, 0A in 8 apps) blunts their threat, yet Toronto's inability to close out wins keeps the draw probability elevated.
Toronto hold a slight edge at home in the derby with better overall points and recent H2H unbeaten run, despite both sides' leaky defenses and poor late-season form; Montreal's last win and injuries keep the away upset viable but secondary to a narrow home result or draw.
Toronto FC have the league's joint-highest draw count (8 in 19 games) and host a 401 Derby where both sides are scrapping near the playoff line; Montreal's poor defensive record (36 GA) and Alexis Sánchez's goalless MLS stint limit their ceiling, but the rivalry's historically even H2H (20-19-8) and Toronto's draw-heavy profile point to a tight, level contest.
Toronto FC are at home in a must-win derby with a slightly better record (20 pts vs 17) and a strong draw tendency (8 in 19), while CF Montreal have been worse overall with 10 losses and an ineffective Alexis Sánchez. Toronto's home advantage and Montreal's poor form edge it toward a narrow home win, but Toronto's high draw rate keeps this competitive.
Toronto FCCF Montreal