Seattle Sounders
New York Red Bulls| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H49%D26%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H42%D30%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H49%D27%A24% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H44%D28%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H47%D26%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H40%D28%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H43%D28%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Seattle are solid but low-scoring at home, while New York Red Bulls have the leakiest defense among the East's playoff chasers (41 conceded) and face a long cross-country trip for a non-conference game. That points to a narrow home win, though Seattle's modest attacking output keeps the draw very live.
Seattle are winless in 10 but have key players (Roldan, Morris, Dotson) returning and new DP Joveljić scored a brace on debut; RBNY concede heavily (46 goals, 5th-worst in MLS) and their aggressive press leaves exploitable gaps, yet the Sounders' long drought and RBNY's dribbling threat keep draw and away outcomes plausible.
Seattle holds a solid defensive structure and the advantage of hosting cross-country travelers New York Red Bulls, whose defense has leaked 41 goals in 19 matches.
Seattle's home advantage and much tighter defence (22 GA in 17) contrasts with NY Red Bulls' leaky backline (41 GA in 19), giving Sounders a narrow edge despite spine absences, with Cristian Roldan's potential return aiding control in a low-scoring game.
Seattle's home advantage combines with a far superior defensive record (1.29 GA/game vs NYRB's 2.16) against an RBNY side that concedes heavily, even though the Red Bulls possess meaningful attacking threat; a low-scoring home win is the modal outcome, with a draw reasonably likely given both teams' mid-table inconsistency.
Seattle Sounders are missing key midfielders and have struggled with consistency, while New York Red Bulls have shown recent improvement and are level on points with NYCFC. Both teams are evenly matched in this non-conference fixture, making a draw the most plausible outcome, though Seattle's home advantage provides a slight edge.
Seattle owns one of the league's tighter defenses (22 conceded in 17) and gets home advantage against a Red Bulls side shipping over two goals per game (41 in 19) after a cross-country trip; Seattle's own modest attack keeps this from being a rout, but RBNY's defensive fragility tips a narrow, low-margin game toward the hosts, with the draw a live alternative given Seattle's struggles to score (20 in 17).
Seattle's strong home form at Lumen Field and superior defensive record (1.29 GA/game) contrast with New York's leaky away defense (2.16 GA/game overall); both teams sit near .500 but the Sounders' defensive solidity gives them the edge in a match likely to feature goals given the Red Bulls' attacking output.
Seattle's home advantage and stronger defensive record give them the edge against a Red Bulls side conceding more than two goals per match. However, Seattle's modest scoring output keeps a draw firmly in play.
Seattle's home advantage is offset by a league-worst attack (20 goals in 17 games) and key absences (Dobbelaere, Rowe), while NY Red Bulls' leaky defense (41 conceded) is balanced by their recent upturn in form. Both teams are closely matched in points and quality, making a low-scoring draw the most probable single outcome.
Seattle hold a slight edge at Lumen Field thanks to home advantage, Joveljić's immediate impact, and returning veterans, while RBNY's leaky defense (41 GA) and mediocre away form make them vulnerable despite similar mid-table records and both sides' recent winless stretches.
Both sides are level on 26 points and in poor form (Seattle DDLLL, RBNY LDLLW), making a draw the most honest outcome; Seattle's home advantage and Joveljić's instant impact are tempered by six key absences, while the Red Bulls' severe xG underperformance limits their finishing despite decent chance creation.
Seattle's solid defense (22 GA in 17) faces a Red Bulls side that has conceded 41 in 19, suggesting Seattle can find goals at home despite their own modest attack. NYRB's scoring ability keeps them in it, but their leaky defense tilts the edge to the Sounders.
Seattle SoundersNew York Red Bulls