San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H45%D25%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H40%D27%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H44%D28%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H42%D26%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H47%D25%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D30%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H44%D26%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H40%D27%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
San Jose are potent at home (38 goals in 19 games, Judd in double figures) and unbeaten in six, while Houston's record is heavily front-loaded by home form (8-2-2) and their modest 28 goals suggest a low-margin, Guilherme-dependent attack. Expect a tight game with the Quakes edging it, though a draw is a live outcome.
San Jose's home edge and stronger goal difference make them slight favorites, but Houston's league-leading defense and strong head-to-head record keep the match close and make a draw a real possibility.
In a clash between two of the Western Conference's top-four contenders, San Jose's potent attack led by Preston Judd gives them a slight edge on home turf against Houston Dynamo's resilient defense.
San Jose at home (8-6-3 vs Houston historically) and on a six-game unbeaten run with elite attack (38 GF) faces Western leaders Houston who are strong at home (8-2-2) but just 3-0-4 away and reliant on Guilherme overperforming xG (13 goals vs 6.94 xG); narrow home edge with both teams scoring expected.
San Jose (4th West, 33 pts) and Houston (1st West, 35 pts) are nearly identical in record (10-3-6 vs 11-2-6), with both teams strong offensively. San Jose's home advantage, six-game unbeaten streak, and favorable historical home record vs Houston (8-6-3) tilt the match slightly toward the hosts, but Houston's quality at the top of the conference and unbeaten run in the series (4 matches) make a draw a very credible outcome between two well-matched sides.
San Jose Earthquakes are on a six-game unbeaten streak and hold a strong home record against Houston (8-6-3), but Houston's recent form (unbeaten in last four vs San Jose) and attacking prowess, led by Guilherme's 13 goals, make them formidable. The draw is a significant possibility given both teams' recent consistency.
San Jose's underlying quality looks stronger than the table gap suggests: a +11 goal difference and 38 goals scored (Judd on 11) versus Houston's modest +4 GD despite topping the West, and home advantage in MLS is substantial. Houston's edge in the all-time series and recent unbeaten run against the Quakes keeps the away result credible, but the hosts' firepower makes 2-1 the most likely scoreline.
Houston Dynamo lead the Western Conference with a strong 8-2-2 home record at Shell Energy Stadium and are unbeaten in their last four meetings with San Jose. The Earthquakes are on a six-game unbeaten run but have a poorer head-to-head record; Houston's late-match resilience and Guilherme's scoring form edge a tight contest.
San Jose's stronger scoring rate and home advantage give them a narrow edge, reinforced by their reported six-match unbeaten run. Houston remain dangerous and defensively solid, so both a draw and a close away win carry substantial probability.
San Jose enjoys home advantage, sits on a six-game unbeaten streak, and boasts the league's most potent attack (2.0 goals/game), while Houston's away record is a poor 3-0-4 and their top scorer Guilherme is significantly overperforming xG (13 goals vs 6.94 xG), suggesting regression risk. Houston's superior defensive record keeps them competitive, but the Earthquakes' form and firepower at home give them the edge.
San Jose sit just behind league-leading Houston with superior goal difference and home advantage in a tight Western Conference race; both attack well but Quakes' higher scoring output and recent unbeaten mentions edge a narrow home win, while draws remain frequent in MLS.
San Jose's potent attack (38 GF) benefits from home advantage, but Houston's league-best defense (7 shutouts in 8 games, 11 on the season) and status as Western Conference leaders make them dangerous visitors — their recent 0-0 draw underscores how closely matched these sides are. A tight, low-scoring draw is the most honest single outcome, with San Jose's home edge giving them a fractional probability advantage overall.
These teams drew 0-0 two weeks ago and remain closely matched; San Jose returns home with momentum from a 3-2 win at San Diego and three unbeaten road games, while Houston's strong defense and Guilherme's scoring threat make them dangerous visitors. The tight first meeting and San Jose's improving but still vulnerable defense point to another close, low-scoring affair.
San Jose EarthquakesHouston Dynamo