Portland Timbers
Minnesota United FC| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H43%D28%A29% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H41%D28%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H43%D25%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H34%D28%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H36%D30%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H40%D33%A27% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Portland's home form at Providence Park and clearly higher attacking output (33 goals) outweigh a Minnesota side that scores sparingly (21 goals in 19) but defends decently and draws often (7 of 19), which keeps the stalemate probability elevated.
Portland's home edge makes them narrow favorites, but Minnesota are draw-prone and low-scoring, making a 1-1 scoreline the likeliest single result.
Portland's superior firepower at Providence Park should give them the edge over a resilient but low-scoring Minnesota United side.
Portland's home advantage and higher scoring (33 GF) is tempered by a porous defence (33 GA) and poor recent form D-L-L-D-W, while Minnesota arrives D-W-L-D-W with a 2-0 head-to-head win in April and a league-high draw tendency, making a low-scoring stalemate the single most likely scoreline despite a slight home edge on result probabilities.
Portland and Minnesota are nearly identical in the standings (24 vs 25 points), with Minnesota holding a slight form edge (D-W-L-D-W vs D-L-L-D-W) but Portland benefiting from home advantage. Portland's stronger attack (33 GF) is offset by Minnesota's stingier defense (26 GA in 19 games), making a low-scoring draw the most plausible single scoreline, with a marginal tilt toward either side based on venue.
Both teams exhibit inconsistent recent form, with Portland struggling defensively and Minnesota lacking a clinical edge. The attacking talent on both sides and the likelihood of a tightly contested match suggest a draw is highly probable, though either team could edge it.
These sides are nearly level on points per game, so Portland's home edge at Providence Park and their far more productive attack (33 goals vs Minnesota's 21) tip the balance slightly toward the hosts; however, Minnesota's better recent form (D-W-L-D-W vs D-L-L-D-W), solid defense, and their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture keep the away outcome and draw well in play.
Portland's potent attack (33 goals in 18 games) faces Minnesota's leaky defense (26 conceded in 19), but Minnesota's superior recent form (D-W-L-D-W vs D-L-L-D-W) and 2-0 win in the reverse fixture keep this finely balanced; slight home edge with high draw probability.
Portland’s stronger attack and home advantage are offset by Minnesota’s tighter defense and draw-heavy record. Minnesota’s earlier 2-0 win in this matchup further suggests a competitive, closely balanced game.
Portland holds a modest home advantage with a significantly stronger attack (33 GF in 18 games vs. Minnesota's 21 in 19), while the Loons' low output on the road makes an away win less likely despite their slightly better recent form. Portland's leaky defense (33 GA) keeps Minnesota in the game, but the Timbers' firepower at Providence Park should edge a narrow home victory.
Minnesota arrive in strong attacking form (5-1 and 3-3 recently, Yeboah hot with 11 goals) while Portland have lost key scorers Kelsy and Mora and sit just below them; historical H2H heavily favors the Loons and Portland's home form is patchy after the Austin loss.
These sides are separated by just one point in the standings and are closely matched in quality; Minnesota's exceptionally high draw rate (36% this season) and historically dominant H2H record (11W-5L-4D) offset Portland's home advantage, which has already been undermined by a recent stoppage-time loss to Austin FC at Providence Park.
Portland boast strong recent home form (3 wins in their last 4 at Providence Park) and a superior attack (33 GF vs Minnesota's 21), while Minnesota's high draw rate (7 in 19+) and historical H2H dominance (11 wins to Portland's 5) keep this tight. The Loons' recent defensive leakiness (3-3 with Orlando) and Portland's backup goalkeeper situation point toward goals at both ends, with the Timbers' home edge narrowly favored.
Portland TimbersMinnesota United FC