Portland Timbers
Austin| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H55%D24%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H52%D26%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H52%D26%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H50%D25%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H56%D23%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H50%D26%A24% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Portland are a much stronger side at Providence Park and score freely (33 goals), while Austin have the West's second-worst goal difference and struggle on the road. The Timbers' leaky defense keeps Austin live for a goal, so an entertaining home win is the likeliest outcome.
Portland's home strength and Austin's weak road record favor the Timbers, but key Portland absences and a full-strength Austin attack should keep it competitive.
Portland Timbers boast superior attacking output and home advantage at Providence Park against an Austin FC side struggling near the bottom of the Western Conference with a -14 goal differential.
Portland sits comfortably in 10th place with a neutral goal difference, while Austin is struggling in 14th with a significant -14 GD and only 4 wins. Portland's superior league position and home advantage at Providence Park make them the favorites.
Portland at Providence Park hold a clear standings edge (24pts vs 17pts) and face an Austin side conceding 2.0 goals per game; home advantage and Austin's -14 GD point to a narrow home win with both teams scoring.
Portland are clear favorites at home: 7 points clear of Austin in the standings, with a far better goal difference (+0 vs -14) and a stronger attack (33 goals vs 22). Austin's leaky defense (36 conceded) has been their main weakness, but their recent draw at LAFC shows resilience, so a single-goal margin with a realistic draw chance is the most likely outcome.
Portland are clearly the stronger side this season (24 pts, even goal difference vs Austin's 17 pts and -14 GD, with Austin conceding 2 goals per game), and Providence Park is a tough venue for visitors, though Austin's history of nicking results there keeps the draw and away probabilities honest.
Portland Timbers sit 7 points and 9 places above Austin in the Western Conference with a superior goal difference (+0 vs -14) and home advantage at Providence Park, though Austin has won and drawn on their last two visits there.
Portland have been substantially more productive in attack and hold home advantage against an Austin side with a poor defensive record. Austin can threaten a level match, but Portland are likelier to convert their superior scoring output into a narrow win.
Portland sits 10th in the West with a balanced 33/33 goal differential and home advantage at Providence Park, while Austin ranks 14th with the league's weakest attack (22 GF in 18 games) and a -14 GD. However, Austin has a strong recent record at Providence Park and is pushing for a late playoff spot, keeping the upset probability meaningful.
Portland sit higher with superior GD and strong home form at Providence Park, while Austin languish near the bottom with a leaky defense; Timbers' recent results (draw vs LAFC, win vs San Diego) edge them despite key absences.
Portland hold a clear standings advantage (24 pts vs 17 pts) and benefit from home-field at Providence Park under new coach Marti Cifuentes, whose arrival has sparked an uptick in form including a Leagues Cup win and a credible draw at LAFC. Austin are fighting under interim coach Davy Arnaud and have shown recent resilience (win at Seattle, draw with Philadelphia), but their poor defensive record (36 GA) and low output (22 GF) make a road upset unlikely.
Portland hold a clear edge with a superior record (24 pts vs 17 pts), a dominant head-to-head (6W-3W-2D), and home-field advantage at Providence Park, while Austin's league-worst attack (22 GF in 18 games) and leaky defense (36 GA) make an away upset unlikely.
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