Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H38%D29%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H38%D32%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H48%D25%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H39%D31%A30% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Two struggling, leaky sides with near-identical goal profiles, so home advantage at Subaru Park is the main separator; Philadelphia's shaky defense and Montreal's ability to grind out points (five draws) keep the draw probability high in a likely low-scoring game.
Philadelphia have the home edge but the teams are nearly level in points per game and both have leaky defenses; Montreal's missing Vrioni and possibly Neal balances Philadelphia's advantage, making a tight draw a strong possibility.
Both sides have struggled defensively near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but Philadelphia hold home advantage at Subaru Park to narrowly edge an equally inconsistent Montreal team.
Both sit bottom-half East with near-identical records (PHI 25-33, MTL 25-36) and low win rates; home advantage at Subaru Park gives Philadelphia a slight edge but Montreal's Owusu threat and Philadelphia's vulnerability under pressure point to a tight, low-scoring game where 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline.
Both Philadelphia (16 pts) and CF Montreal (17 pts) are among the worst teams in the Eastern Conference with leaky defenses (33 and 36 goals conceded respectively) and identical 25 goals scored. Montreal are missing Vrioni and Neal through injury, while Philadelphia have home advantage at Subaru Park coming off a strong performance against the Red Bulls; the close standings, mutual poor form, and the league's high draw rate (~24%) point to a tight, low-scoring stalemate with Philadelphia holding a marginal edge.
Philadelphia Union's recent form and home advantage, combined with CF Montreal's defensive vulnerabilities and injury concerns, make them slight favorites. However, Montreal's tactical adjustments and Prince Owusu's scoring threat keep the draw and away win probabilities competitive. The Union's ability to disrupt Montreal's build-up play could be decisive.
A bottom-of-the-East clash between two evenly matched strugglers, but home advantage at Subaru Park tips it toward Philadelphia, especially with Montreal missing Vrioni and Neal and carrying the weaker defensive record (36 conceded in 19). Both sides score and concede at similar rates, so a narrow, low-scoring home win is the likeliest outcome with the draw a live possibility.
Philadelphia Union at home with a slight edge after a statement win over New York Red Bulls, but CF Montreal's Prince Owusu is in scoring form and both teams have nearly identical poor records; a low-scoring draw is the most probable outcome.
Philadelphia have a slight edge through home advantage and a marginally better defensive record, but both teams have struggled for wins and carry similar attacking output. Montreal’s defensive vulnerability gives the Union opportunities, though the matchup remains close enough for a draw to be the likeliest exact score.
Both teams sit near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with nearly identical goal-scoring (~1.3/game) and conceding (~1.85/game) records, making this an evenly matched contest. Philadelphia's home advantage is tempered by Montreal's improved attacking output via Prince Owusu and a vulnerable Union defense, pointing to a tight, low-scoring draw as the most likely single outcome.
Both sides sit near the Eastern Conference basement with nearly identical poor records and goal tallies; Philadelphia's slight home edge is offset by Montreal's comparable defensive frailty and recent attacking contributions from Owusu, making a low-scoring draw the most probable single outcome.
Philadelphia Union are a transformed side under interim coach Ryan Richter, winning four of five MLS matches since the World Cup break and playing at home, while CF Montréal arrive demoralized after a 7-1 loss to Inter Miami, exhausted from a brutal Miami-Vancouver-Philadelphia travel schedule, and dealing with multiple injuries including Vrioni and Neal.
Two of the Eastern Conference's weakest sides face off, with Philadelphia holding a slight edge from home advantage and a marginally better goal difference, but both teams' poor form (4 wins each) and leaky defenses make a draw highly plausible. Montreal's Owusu is in scoring form, which could exploit a Union defense that has conceded 33 in 18 games.
Philadelphia UnionCF Montreal