New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H46%D26%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H34%D30%A36% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H44%D27%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H55%D24%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H48%D24%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H47%D27%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
New York Red Bulls have home advantage at a venue where their high-tempo press typically yields goals, and they are nine points clear of a Philadelphia side that has lost 10 of 18 and scores sparingly. The Red Bulls' leaky defence (41 conceded) plus injury absences keep this from being a lopsided call, so a narrow home win with a real draw chance is the sensible read.
Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in six MLS matches since the World Cup break under interim coach Ryan Richter, while NYRB have won just once in their last five at home and are hampered by injuries to Forsberg, Dos Santos and Marcucci. Philadelphia's momentum and NYRB's poor defensive record (41 goals conceded) give the visitors a narrow edge despite the rivalry setting.
New York Red Bulls have shown better attacking consistency at home and face a struggling Philadelphia Union side that has lost 10 of their 18 matches.
New York Red Bulls hold a superior league position (8th vs 14th) and home advantage, but are facing significant injury concerns, including a torn ACL for their starting goalkeeper. Philadelphia Union are in a slump but may benefit from the Red Bulls' depleted squad, making a draw a highly probable outcome.
Red Bulls at home have a clear points advantage (25 vs 16) over a slumping Philadelphia side described as needing to reverse fortunes, and while Forsberg/Choupo-Moting doubts and Marcucci's ACL loss temper the edge, both defences concede heavily (41 and 33 GA) making a narrow home win the most likely single outcome.
New York Red Bulls are clear favorites at home against a Philadelphia side sitting 14th in the East with only 4 wins, but their porous defense (41 goals conceded in 19 games) leaves them vulnerable, making a tight 2-1 home win the most likely outcome with draws also plausible given both teams' inconsistency.
NYRB hold the home edge and a clear standings advantage over a slumping Philadelphia side sitting second-bottom of the East with just four wins, and the hosts could recall Choupo-Moting up top. However, the Red Bulls' porous defense (41 conceded in 19) and their own injury list keep the Union's upset chances and the draw very much alive.
Red Bulls hold home advantage and a 9-point table edge over a Union side winless in 5; however, key absences (Forsberg, Choupo-Moting) and New York's leaky defense (41 GA) keep the draw and away upset very live.
New York’s home advantage and stronger overall results give them the edge against a struggling Philadelphia side. Both defenses have conceded frequently, so a narrow, high-event home win is most likely.
New York Red Bulls hold a clear advantage in standings (8th, 25 pts) over a Philadelphia Union side languishing in 14th with just 16 points and a severe slump. Despite NYRB's leaky defense (41 GA) and some injury concerns, home advantage at SI Stadium against the league's second-worst Eastern Conference team should prove decisive in a narrow win.
Red Bulls sit well clear of bottom-dwelling Union in the East with a superior points total and home advantage at Sports Illustrated Stadium; Philly’s poor record (only 4 wins) and defensive issues make an away win unlikely despite Red Bulls’ own injury concerns and leaky defense.
Philadelphia are unbeaten in six MLS matches and have momentum from their post-World Cup resurgence, while New York Red Bulls have won just once in their last six and are dealing with significant injuries (Forsberg, Dos Santos, Marcucci). The Red Bulls' poor home form (one win in five) and both teams' recent drawing tendencies point toward a closely contested stalemate.
Philadelphia are unbeaten in six matches since the World Cup break (including a 3-1 win over the Red Bulls on July 22), while NYRB have won just one of their last five at home and lost four of their last six overall, compounded by injuries to Forsberg, Choupo-Moting, Dos Santos, and starting goalkeeper Marcucci (ACL).
New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union