New York City FC
Philadelphia Union| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H52%D26%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H53%D25%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H44%D27%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–1 | H58%D24%A18% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H50%D26%A24% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H53%D25%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H51%D26%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 2–1 | H58%D23%A19% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H53%D26%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–2 | H30%D35%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H54%D25%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H56%D25%A19% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
NYCFC are the stronger side, at home, with a positive goal difference and a proven scorer in Fernández Mercau, while Philadelphia sit near the bottom of the East with a leaky defense and poor road form; a narrow home win is most likely, with a draw the plausible alternative.
NYCFC are solid at home with a positive goal difference and Fernández Mercau in outstanding scoring form, while Philadelphia sit deep in the East with a leaky defense and a poor road record. A home win is clearly the most likely outcome, though the Union's ability to grind out low-scoring games keeps the draw at a fair share.
NYCFC are at home and better placed in the standings but missing suspended top scorer Nicolás Fernández plus several injured regulars, while Philadelphia arrive in improved scoring form through Iloski yet remain poor on the road. That points to a tight contest, with a low-scoring draw the most likely exact scoreline.
New York City FC sit comfortably higher in the Eastern Conference and boast a potent attack led by Nicolás Fernández Mercau. With Philadelphia Union struggling defensively and currently on a four-game road losing streak, the hosts are well-positioned to secure all three points.
Despite missing key players like Maxi Moralez due to injury, New York City FC should leverage home advantage at Yankee Stadium against a struggling Philadelphia Union side that has lost four consecutive away matches in MLS. Led by joint-top scorer Nicolás Fernández, the hosts are favored to edge out a close victory.
New York City FC enter as solid home favorites against a struggling Philadelphia Union side sitting 14th in the Eastern Conference and amidst a four-game road losing streak. Backed by top scorer Nicolás Fernández Mercau, NYCFC should capitalize on Subaru Park / Yankee Stadium home advantage against a porous Union defense.
NYCFC sits significantly higher in the Eastern Conference standings (7th vs 14th) and possesses one of the league's top scorers in N. Fernández Mercau. However, Philadelphia has shown they can compete with NYCFC, having won a recent encounter, and NYCFC's recent form has been inconsistent.
NYCFC hold clear table and goal-difference edge (+7 vs -8) and home advantage against a Philadelphia side on a four-game road losing streak and 14th in the East, though Philly's recent 1-0 win over NYCFC suggests a tight, low-margin game.
NYCFC sit comfortably mid-table (26 pts, +7 GD) led by top scorer Fernández Mercau (13 goals), while Philadelphia are near the bottom (16 pts, -8 GD) and on a four-game road losing streak, giving the hosts a clear edge despite NYCFC's modest home form this season.
Both teams are in mixed form, with NYCFC slightly better on the road but Philadelphia struggling with fatigue after recent fixtures and squad rotation. The midfield battle and defensive setups suggest a tightly contested match, with a draw the most likely outcome given their recent head-to-head parity and current league positions.
New York City FC sit seven places and ten points clear of Philadelphia Union in the Eastern Conference, boasting a +7 goal difference and home advantage. The Union have managed only 16 points from 18 matches with a -8 goal difference and are mired in a four-game road losing streak, making a home win the most probable outcome.
NYCFC (26 pts, +7 GD) are clearly the stronger side this season and host a Philadelphia team sitting 14th in the East that arrives on a four-game road losing streak per AP reporting. Philly's 1-0 home win over NYCFC earlier in 2026 and the Union's slightly better road showings keep the draw and upset live, but home advantage plus NYCFC's superior attack (Fernández Mercau, 13 goals) point to a narrow home win.
NYCFC miss top scorer Nicolás Fernández (13 goals, scored in 4 straight) plus Moralez, Martinez and Trewin, severely weakening their attack and midfield. Union arrive on a 3-game MLS win streak with historical success at Yankee Stadium (1 loss in 6 visits this decade). Both defenses are leaky (NYCFC 1 clean sheet post-World Cup, Union 33 GA) and neither side has drawn in their last 12 meetings, making a high-scoring draw the most probable single outcome.
NYCFC have the stronger overall profile, with a more productive attack and substantially better defensive record. Home advantage should tilt the match their way, though Philadelphia carry enough scoring threat to keep it competitive.
NYCFC sit 10 points clear of Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference with a significantly superior goal difference (+7 vs -8), and boast the league's joint-top scorer in N. Fernández Mercau (13 goals). Philadelphia's leaky defense (33 conceded in 18 games) and indifferent recent form make them vulnerable on the road, though their occasional competitiveness keeps the away/draw probabilities meaningful.
NYCFC sit well clear of last-place Philly in the East with a superior attack led by joint-top scorer Fernández Mercau and a solid defensive record; home advantage and the visitors' poor away form and overall record make a narrow home win the most likely outcome, while still allowing a realistic draw chance.
NYCFC are missing Golden Boot leader Nicolás Fernández (13 goals) and Maxi Moralez to suspension/injury, gutting their attack against a Philadelphia side riding a three-match MLS winning streak under interim coach Richter. Philly have historically fared well at Yankee Stadium (only one loss in six visits this decade), but NYCFC's superior overall quality and home advantage keep them slight favorites.
NYCFC sit 10 points clear of Philadelphia with a much stronger defensive record (24 GA vs 33 GA) and boast one of the league's top scorers in Fernández Mercau (13 goals), while the Union have lost three of their last five and carry a poor road record, making a home win the most likely outcome.
New York City FCPhiladelphia Union