New York City FC
New York Red Bulls| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H45%D29%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–0 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H38%D33%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D35%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H38%D32%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H53%D25%A22% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H41%D28%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H44%D27%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H41%D31%A28% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
NYCFC are the stronger side on balance — solid defensively (24 conceded) and unbeaten-ish at a compact home ground — while the Red Bulls have the leakiest defense of any East side in the playoff mix (41 conceded) despite decent attacking output. Derby intensity and New York's high-tempo pressing style keep the draw and an away upset live, but home advantage points to a narrow NYCFC win.
NYCFC's stronger defensive record and home edge make them narrow favorites, but both attacks are struggling for goals and the first Hudson River Derby ended 1-1, pointing to another tight, low-scoring match.
NYCFC holds home advantage in the Hudson River Derby and boasts a significantly sturdier defense than a Red Bulls side that has conceded 41 goals in 19 league matches.
NYCFC at home have the better defensive profile (31-24 vs 30-41) and slight table edge despite both sides in a scoring slump (NYCFC >1 goal once in six, Red Bulls one goal in three), pointing to a low-scoring home edge with draw very live as seen in the 1-1 earlier derby.
Evenly matched sides separated by just one point in the standings, with NYCFC holding a clear defensive edge (24 GA vs 41 GA) but both clubs struggling offensively lately (Red Bulls only 1 goal in last 3, NYCFC more than 1 goal in just 1 of last 6). Derby matches historically trend tight — the first Hudson River Derby this season ended 1-1 — and the combination of NYCFC's possession style neutralizing a low-scoring Red Bulls attack supports a stalemate as the modal outcome.
Both teams exhibit offensive struggles recently, with NYCFC scoring more than one goal in just one of their last six matches and the Red Bulls managing only one goal in their previous three. Their tactical similarities, recent form, and the high-stakes derby context suggest a tightly contested match likely to end in a low-scoring draw.
The Hudson River Derby pits two near-level sides, but NYCFC's far tighter defense (24 GA vs NYRB's 41) and home advantage tilt this toward the hosts, while NYRB's respectable attack (30 GF) and the derby's recent history of both teams scoring suggest a competitive, multi-goal game rather than a blowout.
NYCFC's superior defense (+7 GD vs -11) and home advantage are offset by both teams' recent offensive struggles (NYCFC >1 goal in 1 of 6, Red Bulls 1 goal in 3) and the first derby ending 1-1; H2H trends show both teams scoring in the last three meetings.
New York City FC have the stronger defense and a substantially better goal difference, while the Red Bulls have conceded 41 goals in 19 matches. Home advantage and NYCFC’s greater attacking threat make a narrow derby win the likeliest outcome.
NYCFC holds a home advantage in this Hudson River Derby with a significantly tighter defense (24 GA vs. 41 GA), but both teams are in poor recent offensive form — NYCFC has scored more than one goal in just one of six matches and the Red Bulls managed only one goal in their last three. The first derby ended 1-1, and H2H trends strongly favor BTTS in a low-scoring, tightly contested affair.
NYCFC hold a slight edge via better GD, a game in hand and home advantage in the derby, plus league-leading scorer Fernández Mercau, while Red Bulls' leaky defense (41 GA) makes a narrow home win the most probable 90-minute outcome.
NYCFC hold a notable edge in defensive solidity (GA 24 vs 41) and overall goal difference, plus home advantage in the Hudson River Derby; however, the reverse fixture finished 1-1 and recent offensive struggles for both sides keep this close, with the draw a genuine contender.
NYCFC hold a clear defensive edge (24 GA vs Red Bulls' 41) and enjoy home advantage in this Hudson River Derby, but both sides have struggled offensively of late and their last meeting ended 1-1, making a tight, low-scoring draw a strong secondary outcome.
New York City FCNew York Red Bulls