Los Angeles Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H34%D27%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H28%D34%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 2–1 | H41%D25%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H36%D27%A37% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H33%D27%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H30%D30%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D35%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–1 | H28%D27%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H33%D26%A41% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H28%D32%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H31%D25%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H33%D27%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H35%D31%A34% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
The Galaxy host the California Clásico at home, are unbeaten in eight away meetings historically and debut new DP Chucky Lozano, while San Jose arrive on an eight-match winless run (no MLS win since May) and are defensively fragile; both sides' loose defenses point to goals, but the venue and momentum favor a narrow home win.
San Jose are the stronger side on the season (better goal difference and attacking output), but they arrive out of form and defensively leaky, while the Galaxy are draw-prone, low-scoring and get a boost at home in a derby they historically compete well in. That points to a tight, close-to-even game with a high chance of level scores after 90 minutes.
Both sides are in dire form — Galaxy winless in six and San Jose with one win in six — but the Quakes have far superior season-long quality (4th vs 13th). Defensive frailties on both sides and Galaxy's home debut of Lozano offset the gap, making a score draw the most plausible outcome, mirroring July's 1-1 California Clásico.
Despite San Jose sitting much higher in the Western Conference standings, they have struggled recently, losing three of their last four matches. LA Galaxy will look to exploit the Earthquakes' dip in form at home, though both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities that should lead to an open game.
LA Galaxy benefit from home advantage in the Cali Clasico but have managed only five victories all season. With San Jose higher in the standings despite a recent dip in form, a closely contested 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome.
San Jose Earthquakes have enjoyed a superior campaign powered by an effective attack, but home advantage in the Cali Clásico should help LA Galaxy keep things tight and share the points.
San Jose sits higher in the standings and possesses a more potent attack (P. Judd), but LA Galaxy has a strong historical record in this rivalry. Both teams are noted for defensive frailties and inconsistent form, making a high-scoring draw a likely outcome.
San Jose remain the better side on season numbers (38 GF, +11 GD vs Galaxy 24 GF, -6 GD) but are out of form with 3 defeats in 4 and 3 goals conceded in each post-break game, while Galaxy are unbeaten in 4 (3 draws) and unbeaten in 8 away at San Jose including 1-1 on 07/26, making a tight away edge with both scoring most likely.
San Jose sit 11 points clear in the standings and have a much stronger goal difference, but both teams enter on poor form with notable defensive frailties and the most recent H2H meeting ended 1-1; Galaxy's home advantage and rivalry context keeps this competitive, but San Jose's superior underlying quality makes them slight favorites.
Both teams exhibit defensive frailties and recent inconsistent form, with San Jose Earthquakes struggling in their last four games and Los Angeles Galaxy unbeaten in their last four but drawing three of them. The historical head-to-head also suggests a tightly contested match, with draws being a common outcome.
The Earthquakes’ superior campaign and attacking output give them the edge over a Galaxy team that has been leaky since the World Cup break, yet both sides arrive out of form and their earlier encounter this season finished 1-1, making that scoreline the most likely exact outcome.
San Jose are the stronger side this season (33 pts, +11 GD, 38 goals vs Galaxy's 22 pts, -6 GD) and Galaxy have conceded three goals in both matches since the World Cup break, but the Quakes have lost three of their last four and Galaxy's home edge plus their long unbeaten run in this rivalry keep it tight — a draw (the reverse meeting finished 1-1) is a very live outcome between two out-of-form, defensively fragile teams.
San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in the West with a strong attack (38 goals in 19 games) and positive goal difference, while LA Galaxy languish 13th with the league's third-worst defense (30 goals conceded in 20 games). Despite Galaxy's historical dominance in this rivalry, San Jose's current form and offensive firepower give them the edge, though home advantage and MLS parity keep the draw probability high.
San Jose have been substantially stronger in attack and overall results, while the Galaxy carry a negative goal difference. Home advantage and the recent 1-1 meeting keep the draw plausible, but San Jose are more likely to edge a high-scoring contest.
San Jose sit 4th in the West with a +11 GD and 2.0 goals/game, significantly outclassing 13th-place Galaxy on quality metrics, but their recent form is poor (3 losses in last 4) and both sides have shown defensive frailties since the World Cup break. Galaxy's home advantage and LA Galaxy's historical H2H edge keep this competitive, but San Jose's superior attacking output should edge a narrow away win in a game where both defenses are likely breached.
San Jose sit 4th with a strong +11 GD and potent attack while Galaxy languish 13th with negative GD and weaker output; the visitors' superior season form and recent H2H draw away from home make an away win the most likely result despite Galaxy's historical edge in the fixture.
San Jose's overall quality (4th in West, +11 GD, 38 goals scored) gives them the edge despite their recent slump of 1 win in 6, while Galaxy are in dire form with just 2 points from their last 5 games and leaky defense (30 GA); however, Galaxy's home advantage and the expected debut of Chucky Lozano keep this competitive, as shown by their 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture.
San Jose sit 11 points clear of the Galaxy in the standings with a far superior goal difference, but they have lost three of their last four and both sides showed defensive frailty in their recent 1-1 draw. Galaxy's high draw rate (7 in 20) and home advantage offset San Jose's overall quality, making a tight, low-scoring affair the most likely outcome.
Los Angeles GalaxySan Jose Earthquakes