DC United
FC Cincinnati| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H32%D26%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H35%D37%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–2 | H34%D28%A38% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H36%D30%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H37%D27%A36% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H36%D29%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–2 | H34%D26%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H27%D30%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H32%D28%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H33%D28%A39% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H27%D30%A43% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Cincinnati are the stronger side on points and carry far more attacking threat (Evander–Denkey), while D.C. United's leaky defence and habit of drawing keeps the stalemate live; both teams concede heavily, so an open, high-scoring game is likely even on D.C.'s home turf in a quick turnaround from their midweek meeting.
DC United's draw-heavy profile and FC Cincinnati's poor away record point to a level match, with both sides likely to score in a tight quick rematch.
FC Cincinnati possess potent attacking firepower led by Denkey and Evander but remain vulnerable defensively, matching up against a DC United side that has drawn nearly half their matches this campaign.
Cincinnati's high-volume attack led by Denkey and Evander faces a DC side in poor recent form with heavy defeats, but DC's league-high draw rate keeps them competitive; both defences have leaked heavily pointing to goals with the visitors narrowly favoured.
Cincinnati's road form is poor (roughly two wins in 15 away matches, with a leaky 2.4 goals-against-per-game profile) and they will be playing only 72 hours after the first leg at TQL Stadium, while D.C. is solid enough at Audi Field (~5-5-5 at home) and desperate to respond to the 2-1 defeat; but both sides are draw-heavy (D.C. has drawn nine of 19, Cincinnati seven of 15 away) and the first meeting was a tight, low-scoring contest, pointing to a cagey 1-1 with the home side only marginally favoured.
Two of the leakiest defenses in the East meet: Cincinnati (45 GA) and DC (30 GA, fresh off 4-0 and 4-1 defeats) both concede freely, while Cincinnati's Denkey/Evander attack (46 GF) guarantees chances at both ends. DC's remarkable 9 draws in 19 games elevates the draw probability, but home advantage in a high-variance, must-win game gives the hosts a narrow edge in a goal-heavy contest.
FC Cincinnati's dreadful away record (2-7-6, 71 goals conceded in 30 matches) clashes with DC United's solid 5-5-5 home form; both sides score freely but DC's Audi Field edge and Kimito Nono's hot streak tip a tight, high-scoring game to the hosts.
Cincinnati’s much stronger attack gives them a slight edge, but their 45 goals conceded and D.C.’s high draw rate make a close, high-scoring game likely. Home advantage should help D.C. exploit Cincinnati’s defensive vulnerability.
FC Cincinnati's superior attacking output (46 GF, 11 goals from Denkey, 8 assists from Evander) gives them the edge over a DC United side in poor recent form (conceding 8 goals in their last two losses). However, DC United's league-leading draw rate (9 in 19) and home desperation in the playoff race keep the draw probability elevated and prevent a wider Cincinnati margin.
Cincinnati sit higher with superior attack (46 GF) and edge the Eastern mid-table scrap despite leaky defense; DC's high draw rate (9 already) and home venue keep them competitive but Cincinnati's firepower makes an away win the likeliest narrow result.
FC Cincinnati's superior firepower (46 goals, Denkey and Evander leading the lines) against a D.C. side in poor form — heavy recent defeats including 4-0 at Miami and 4-1 at Orlando — makes an away win the most likely single outcome, though D.C.'s nine draws and both teams' leaky defenses (Cincinnati have conceded 45) keep the draw and high-scoring outcomes well in play.
FC Cincinnati just beat DC United 2-1 three days prior and possess far superior attacking firepower (46 GF led by Evander and Denkey), while DC United's defense has collapsed in recent weeks with 4-0 and 4-1 defeats. However, DC United's league-high 47% draw rate and home advantage at Audi Field keep the draw as a significant possibility.
DC UnitedFC Cincinnati