Chicago Fire
New York City FC| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H47%D26%A27% | Correct | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Correct | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Correct | Exact |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H51%D26%A23% | Correct | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H35%D35%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H41%D26%A33% | Correct | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H52%D24%A24% | Correct | Exact |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H44%D27%A29% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Chicago have the better points-per-game and a strong attack led by Cuypers and Zinckernagel, and they get home advantage against a NYCFC side that is solid defensively but inconsistent and missing Alonso Martinez. The head-to-head trend favours New York, so the draw and away win retain meaningful probability.
Chicago Fire are stronger in the standings and have home advantage, while NYCFC are missing Alonso Martinez and have historically struggled for away wins. The head-to-head favours NYCFC, but a draw is a real possibility.
Chicago Fire hold home advantage and have been one of the Eastern Conference's most clinical attacks behind Hugo Cuypers and Philip Zinckernagel, giving them a slight edge over a competitive NYCFC side.
Chicago's home advantage and Cuypers-led attack is cancelled out by a nine-game winless run against NYCFC and international absences on both sides including Martinez for NYCFC, pointing to a tight, low-scoring game where a draw is very live.
Chicago Fire are the form team in the East (29 pts from 17 matches, +9 GD) with home advantage and top scorer H. Cuypers (13 goals), while missing only an international-break-depleted squad. NYCFC are competitive (Fernandez Mercau with 13 goals) but lack injured striker Alonso Martinez, and Chicago's strong recent form (six away matches unbeaten before the Inter Miami loss) gives them the slight edge despite NYCFC's dominant long-term H2H record.
Chicago are having the far stronger season (45 points to NYCFC's 33 by match week per club records) with one of the East's best defenses and Cuypers in the league's top scoring ranks, plus home advantage; NYCFC are draw-heavy mid-table and still missing Alonso Martinez, though their historical edge in this head-to-head tempers confidence slightly.
Chicago Fire's strong home form and higher league position are offset by a poor recent head-to-head record (winless in 9) and NYCFC's resilient away performances; a tight, low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.
Chicago’s stronger scoring record and home advantage make them slight favorites, but NYCFC have comparable defensive numbers and are unbeaten in the last nine meetings. Alonso Martinez’s absence limits the visitors’ attacking upside.
Chicago Fire holds a slight edge at home with a better points-per-game rate (1.71 vs 1.44), stronger attack (1.88 GF/game vs 1.72), and comparable defensive solidity. NYCFC's historical H2H dominance (unbeaten in last 9) and top scorer N. Fernández Mercau keep them competitive, but the absence of Alonso Martinez and Chicago's home advantage tip the balance toward a narrow Fire victory.
Chicago sit higher with a superior points-per-game rate, goal difference and home advantage against a mid-table NYCFC side; Cuypers' scoring form edges a likely 2-1 home win while the draw retains its honest ~27% share.
Chicago Fire boast an excellent 8-4-1 home record and are riding momentum after a 3-1 win over Vancouver, while NYCFC have won just once in their last 10 league matches and are missing seven players to injury including key midfielders Moralez and Parks. However, NYCFC's strong recent H2H dominance over Chicago (unbeaten in the last five meetings) and decent 4-4-5 away record temper the gap, keeping this closer than the standings suggest.
Chicago sit higher in the standings with a superior goal difference and home advantage, while NYCFC are without injured striker Alonso Martinez. However, NYCFC's remarkable nine-match unbeaten streak in this head-to-head and Fernández Mercau's 13-goal form keep the visitors very much in contention, making this closer than the table gap suggests.
Chicago FireNew York City FC